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Survival and Preparations Long and short term survival and 'prepping'.

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  #41  
Old 08-09-2018, 2:19 PM
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lightcav lightcav is offline
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Originally Posted by as_rocketman View Post
Don't let the numbers make you fatalistic.

First of all, there are no faults in SoCal large enough to support a 9.0 earthquake. About a low 8.0 is the maximum.

Second, local shaking intensity can only get so high. As a result, the practical difference between an 8.2 and a 6.5 is the duration of shaking and the affected area. Christchurch, NZ, suffered a particularly deadly earthquake that was only a 6.3, but it happened to be extremely shallow and in a terribly unlucky place -- this earthquake killed 185 people, while the 7.1 earthquake that preceded it by two years killed no one.

Third, fighting fires is completely different between urban and forest environments. For starters, there are far more people in the city and access already exists. Quite a different scenario from not being able to spot the fire and having to ship resources to it from hundreds of miles away.

Now let's talk about San Francisco 1906. Not analogous to what we have today. The fires started due to gas line ruptures but were exacerbated by truly idiotic firefighting practices that literally blew embers all over the city. Hey, it was 1906, they had no experience and no proper equipment, it happens... but we're a little smarter. Even so the total scale of the fire was under 500 city blocks. You could chop that out any LA suburb and never miss it.

Even so, the 1906 earthquake and fire was unusually deadly, still the deadliest disaster in California history, killing an estimated 0.7% of the population... Yep under one percent. I like those odds.

I guess another assumption that needs to be clarified is whether, after the disaster, the LA area would be restored, or whether the rest of the world would abandon it to its fate. Ha! The result would be the greatest real estate buying opportunity of the century. OF COURSE it'll be rebuilt.

It's also quite typical of LA folks to think the world revolves around them, but it isn't so. This is not the only metropolis threatened by a large earthquake, and many have been hit. There's Tohoku (2011) and Kobe (1995), Santiago (2010), Taiwan (1999) -- none of them a picnic, but all of them quite survivable. About the upper bound of bad outcomes would be modeled by Sichuan (2008), but our building codes are better, infrastructure is better, response is better in every way. That one exceeded the predicted upper limit for an LA earthquake in terms of displaced persons by a full order of magnitude.

And yet, no zombie uprisings.

So the bottom line is that even a record California earthquake will not mean the end of Southern California. There may be districts or suburbs where the devastation is extreme, and woe to those who happen to live there... but overall, it's highly survivable. Especially if you take some basic precautions.

The situation is much worse for Seattle, for what it's worth.
Of course Im not talking about a quake lower than 7.0. I've lived in CA all my life, those types of quakes are not really that big of a deal if you are in a modern dwelling. I'm talking about an 8.0 maybe a 9.0, a real SHTF quake. The "big one".That would be a lot of devastation.

And you dont have to go up to Seattle to see worse damage. SF will fare much worse than LA. Pretty much all of the financial district and mission bay is built on fill. Basically sand. That stuff will liquify in an 8.0. Some of the buildings have pilings that go all the way to bedrock but even so I wouldnt want to be in one when the sand in between liquifies.

The Millennium Tower is built on sand. They thought the weight of the building itself would be enough to anchor it without going to bedrock. Well anchors tend to sink, and thats exactly what its doing. Maybe that wouldnt be so bad if it was sinking evenly but its not. Its tilting and there are cracks all over the place. The city must be in absolute denial if they cant condemn it and tear it down. So stupid. What an embarrassment.

And a lot of the buildings in SF are made of wood with the exact same construction as those before the 1906 quake. Almost NO ONE has retrofitted either. So those nice 2,3,4 story art deco stucco townhomes are going to be deathtraps.

And lets not get started on the east strand of the Bay Bridge made out of Chinese steel, and corroding inside. They could have just designed something simple that would be safe and reliable, maybe even last forever. But oh no all the libtards had to have something iconic and beautiful to look at. You know, because "art is life". Nevermind how overly complicated, unnecessarily expensive, and downright unsafe it is. But at least the Warriors fans are happy with their new logo.
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Last edited by lightcav; 08-09-2018 at 2:43 PM..
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  #42  
Old 08-09-2018, 2:20 PM
Prwterbird Prwterbird is offline
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Originally Posted by theLBC View Post
steal a boat?
I think next summer I am going to start taking sailing lessons. Aside from the fact it seems like a great hobby, it would be a great survival skill.

In a SHTF scenario, being off shore in the boat would put considerable distance between me and most everyone else.
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  #43  
Old 08-09-2018, 2:34 PM
Sailormilan2 Sailormilan2 is offline
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If you look at the 1857 Tejon Earthquake, it's been classified as a 7.9. Yet there was 30' of horizontal land movement in the Carriza Plain.
There are very few, if any, roads and bridges/overpasses that can survive a 30' movement.
The San Andreas "moves" about 1.5" per year, and it's been 160 years since the Tejon Earthquake. That's 20' of potential movement built up.
So, that means that I5 & the 15 will be down. Possibly also the 10. It won't take an 8.5 or a 9 to do it.
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  #44  
Old 08-09-2018, 2:44 PM
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Originally Posted by Prwterbird View Post
I think next summer I am going to start taking sailing lessons. Aside from the fact it seems like a great hobby, it would be a great survival skill.

In a SHTF scenario, being off shore in the boat would put considerable distance between me and most everyone else.
Tsunami, surfs up dude!
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  #45  
Old 08-09-2018, 2:57 PM
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hunterb hunterb is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Prwterbird View Post
I think next summer I am going to start taking sailing lessons. Aside from the fact it seems like a great hobby, it would be a great survival skill.

In a SHTF scenario, being off shore in the boat would put considerable distance between me and most everyone else.
Not a bad plan. I bet there will be plenty of abandoned sailboats in the marinas around LA after a Big One. Especially the big old yachts owned by rich people who aren't even here....
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  #46  
Old 08-09-2018, 3:16 PM
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Not a bad plan. I bet there will be plenty of abandoned sailboats in the marinas around LA after a Big One. Especially the big old yachts owned by rich people who aren't even here....
Warning, all looters will be shot!
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