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Coronavirus/COVID19 Temp Forum This is a temporary forum for discussion, debate, sharing and helping each other during and in relation to the Coronavirus/COVID19

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  #1  
Old 03-26-2020, 10:19 AM
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Default Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Admits He Was Wrong, Drastically

Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Admits He Was Wrong, Drastically Revises Model - Reduces estimate of 500,000 deaths to 20000.

Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who created the highly-cited Imperial College London coronavirus model, which has been cited by organizations like The New York Times and has been instrumental in governmental policy decision-making, offered a massive revision to his model on Wednesday.

Fergusonís model projected 2.2 million dead people in the United States and 500,000 in the U.K. from COVID-19 if no action were taken to slow the virus and blunt its curve . . .

Ferguson thus dropped his prediction from 500,000 dead to 20,000 (or far fewer) . . . ."
https://www.dailywire.com/news/epide...campaign=63red
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Old 03-26-2020, 10:22 AM
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doh!
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Old 03-26-2020, 10:25 AM
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That 20,000 is just the estimated deaths in the UK. The global deaths attributed is already past the 20,000 mark.
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Old 03-26-2020, 10:29 AM
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Originally Posted by jimmykan View Post
That 20,000 is just the estimated deaths in the UK. The global deaths attributed is already past the 20,000 mark.
He didnít say how many deaths in the US did he? I didnít see it, but I couldíve missed it. I guess by using the same factor it would be around 90,000.
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Old 03-26-2020, 10:35 AM
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so...maybe 100,000 for US
let's go back to work!
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Old 03-26-2020, 10:36 AM
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Originally Posted by CPRAFAN View Post
Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Admits He Was Wrong, Drastically Revises Model - Reduces estimate of 500,000 deaths to 20000.

Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who created the highly-cited Imperial College London coronavirus model, which has been cited by organizations like The New York Times and has been instrumental in governmental policy decision-making, offered a massive revision to his model on Wednesday.

Fergusonís model projected 2.2 million dead people in the United States and 500,000 in the U.K. from COVID-19 if no action were taken to slow the virus and blunt its curve . . .

Ferguson thus dropped his prediction from 500,000 dead to 20,000 (or far fewer) . . . ."
https://www.dailywire.com/news/epide...campaign=63red
So like the seasonal flu then. Got it.
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Old 03-26-2020, 10:38 AM
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That 20,000 is just the estimated deaths in the UK. The global deaths attributed is already past the 20,000 mark.
Global deaths from H1N1 in 2009 were 'estimated' at about half a billion.

Estimated 2 years after the whole thing was over, because there is just no way possible to test every infected person.

These numbers are closer to the seasonal flu.
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Old 03-26-2020, 10:43 AM
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That's a huge, I mean huge, miscalculation.

Basically we're talking a severe flu now?
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Old 03-26-2020, 10:47 AM
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we're taking action now and it's maxing some our hospitals of ICU beds...what crap.

or maybe UK socialized healthcare has a lot more ICU beds than in the US.
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Old 03-26-2020, 10:49 AM
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The Dems got their $2T pork bill so it's time to cancel the panic...
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Old 03-26-2020, 10:59 AM
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If you dig into the details, this is the polar opposite of the other UK prediction and is based on 50% of the population already having had COVID-19 and herd immunity preventing further infections.

It had still not been proven that COVID-19 was in circulation before Wuhan had its outbreak. Many are suggesting that a wider outbreak was already in play, but we have no data on that, nor if it was, what strain it was, or if it mutated in the interim.

This is as fake or as real as their prior attempt to model, and both should be thrown out for lacking enough rigor to be validated.
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Old 03-26-2020, 11:07 AM
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Only off by 2500%... probably will still be too high in the end.
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Old 03-26-2020, 11:24 AM
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Have we been scammed???????








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Old 03-26-2020, 11:25 AM
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The Dems got their $2T pork bill so it's time to cancel the panic...

There are no coincidences in politics.......

Very curious to see how this pans out.....
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Old 03-26-2020, 11:25 AM
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The Dems got their $2T pork bill so it's time to cancel the panic...
This
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Old 03-26-2020, 12:00 PM
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Too many variables to predict the US death toll. Depends a lot on the number who actually stayed away from people. Look at NY where the mayor said it was BS just go ahead an continue as normal and the sane world.
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Old 03-26-2020, 12:02 PM
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I would tell Mr. President to veto this bailout and let's all get back to working for our paychecks!

F*ck the Politicians who just care about themselves.
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Old 03-26-2020, 12:36 PM
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I would tell Mr. President to veto this bailout and let's all get back to working for our paychecks!

F*ck the Politicians who just care about themselves.
Yup. Rip the masks off, lift the curfews and lockdowns, put the kids back in school.
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Old 03-26-2020, 12:56 PM
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Originally Posted by Robotron2k84 View Post
If you dig into the details, this is the polar opposite of the other UK prediction and is based on 50% of the population already having had COVID-19 and herd immunity preventing further infections.
Yeah, that's a BIG assumption. Two, actually. We don't know that herd immunity after only a single wave will even work at this point.

The testing they've done actually argues against 50% of the population having already had it. Background testing in this country is under 10%, but you have to look closely for it since it gets lumped in with ER triage test data.

The best modeling I can do is through analogy to Italy. They appear to be riding the crest. Based on that I can see ~20-50K in the UK, but that still means ~120-250K here... and that assumes we continue with lockdowns. If we throw the doors open and go back to full community spread, all bets are off. All of them.
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Old 03-26-2020, 1:29 PM
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SAN compnerd, global deaths of H1N1 in 09 were estimated at 500 million?

Off to google I guess, but I thought it was far lower than that.
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Old 03-26-2020, 2:29 PM
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SAN compnerd, global deaths of H1N1 in 09 were estimated at 500 million?

Off to google I guess, but I thought it was far lower than that.
I believe I got that from a Wikipedia article. Since Wikipedia is edited like 1984, it's possible it has changed, but the original estimate was between 100MM and 500MM.

Not too much variance on the best science available for that one, no?
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When the middle east descends into complete chaos in 2-3 years due in part to the actions of this administration I'll necro post about how clueless I was.
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Old 03-26-2020, 2:41 PM
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Give it then we'll know.
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Old 03-26-2020, 3:30 PM
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Originally Posted by gwanghoops View Post
we're taking action now and it's maxing some our hospitals of ICU beds...what crap.

or maybe UK socialized healthcare has a lot more ICU beds than in the US.
It seems that socialized healthcare has an almost tie on standard acute care beds, but the NHS is SEVERELY lacking in intensive care beds compared to the US (and even Italy).

Hospital beds per capita (world)
https://www.nationmaster.com/country...r-1,000-people

USA 3.3/1000
UK 4.2/1000


Critical care beds per capita (world)
I can't find my original source, but these are the same number:
https://www.statista.com/chart/21105...0-inhabitants/

USA 34.7/100k
UK 6.6/100k
Italy 12.5/100k

This is a bit concerning. CA ends up being among the areas with the fewest ICU beds in the country, probably thanks to our aggressive HMO market (thanks Kaiser!). CA may essentially fall into the same category as Italy-or worse.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...west-icu-beds/
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Old 03-26-2020, 3:33 PM
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(Note: the graphic is ICU beds per 10k, so 1 is 10/100k-it fits the information in the other link, and CA may have only 10 or so ICU beds per 100k inhabitants.)
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Old 03-26-2020, 3:34 PM
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Go lick some toilet seats if it's such a nothing burger.
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Old 03-26-2020, 3:34 PM
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so how do the numbers for the rescue work out?
~$6k per person overall? $2T/330,000,000

i will get nothing, and will pay the bills.
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Old 03-26-2020, 3:36 PM
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Originally Posted by as_rocketman View Post
Yeah, that's a BIG assumption. Two, actually. We don't know that herd immunity after only a single wave will even work at this point.

The testing they've done actually argues against 50% of the population having already had it. Background testing in this country is under 10%, but you have to look closely for it since it gets lumped in with ER triage test data.

The best modeling I can do is through analogy to Italy. They appear to be riding the crest. Based on that I can see ~20-50K in the UK, but that still means ~120-250K here... and that assumes we continue with lockdowns. If we throw the doors open and go back to full community spread, all bets are off. All of them.
This is also what I've been seeing in our practice. We have tested several dozen patients (I know, small sample size, so more prone to statistical aberrations) and have yet to find anyone who was positive. We have been sticking to guidelines and only sending the higher risk-people with known/suspected contact with Covid-19 patient, travel from high risk area, cough with dyspnea, etc., so if anything our same should overestimate the prevalence of the disease currently in the population.

If it was really already "50%", we would be getting positives regularly.
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Old 03-26-2020, 4:00 PM
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Originally Posted by Robotron2k84 View Post
It had still not been proven that COVID-19 was in circulation before Wuhan had its outbreak. Many are suggesting that a wider outbreak was already in play, but we have no data on that, nor if it was, what strain it was, or if it mutated in the interim.
I will say that from my experiences I worked more pneumonia/flu like calls this winter before this Coronavirus breakout then I ever have in over 10 years of EMS. I wondered the same thing.
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Old 03-26-2020, 5:08 PM
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The Dems got their $2T pork bill so it's time to cancel the panic...
I was just saying this today.... Saul Alinsky would be proud.
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Old 03-26-2020, 5:13 PM
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I think it would be helpful if I cleared up some confusion that has emerged in recent days. Some have interpreted my evidence to a UK parliamentary committee as indicating we have substantially revised our assessments of the potential mortality impact of COVID-19. This is not the case. Indeed, if anything, our latest estimates suggest that the virus is slightly more transmissible than we previously thought. Our lethality estimates remain unchanged. My evidence to Parliament referred to the deaths we assess might occur in the UK in the presence of the very intensive social distancing and other public health interventions now in place. Without those controls, our assessment remains that the UK would see the scale of deaths reported in our study (namely, up to approximately 500 thousand).
Articles been updated.. he didn’t say it was wrong, he said it’s been updated with the newly implemented measures

Edit: shows the 500k-ish in the model was for if nothing was done, table also shows what they predict if X, Y Z was done, so he is basically saying , find 20k on the chart and “we are here”
https://twitter.com/zackbeauchamp/st...999708672?s=21

Last edited by smashycrashy; 03-26-2020 at 5:31 PM..
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Old 03-26-2020, 5:21 PM
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If this turns out to be nothing I’m gonna be pissed.... I was just laid off today.
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Old 03-26-2020, 7:19 PM
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Only off by 2500%... probably will still be too high in the end.
That's not just a splashy bigger number. The old model is off by 2500%.compared to the new.

So, which news outlet is going to make that the headline??

Coronavirus model is now considered off by 2500%.
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Old 03-26-2020, 7:45 PM
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Originally Posted by Wherryj View Post
This is also what I've been seeing in our practice. We have tested several dozen patients (I know, small sample size, so more prone to statistical aberrations) and have yet to find anyone who was positive. We have been sticking to guidelines and only sending the higher risk-people with known/suspected contact with Covid-19 patient, travel from high risk area, cough with dyspnea, etc., so if anything our same should overestimate the prevalence of the disease currently in the population.

If it was really already "50%", we would be getting positives regularly.
50% was a politicians number tossed out so that when this is over and it's less they can say "SEE!!! LOOK HOW MANY WE SAVED!!!" ... lol

Won't be 50%.. just sayin'
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Old 03-26-2020, 8:07 PM
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this guy will be going back to his global warming job
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Old 03-26-2020, 8:42 PM
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Originally Posted by SAN compnerd View Post
I believe I got that from a Wikipedia article. Since Wikipedia is edited like 1984, it's possible it has changed, but the original estimate was between 100MM and 500MM.

Not too much variance on the best science available for that one, no?
No. Unless all of the sources I"ve looked at are wrong, there was an estimated 60 million patients and between 151-575,000 dead worldwide.

While that is a lot, it is a HELLUVA lot different than 150% of the entire United States worth of people, the 500 million, or half a billion, you mentioned.
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Old 03-26-2020, 8:49 PM
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this guy will be going back to his global warming job
This.
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Old 03-26-2020, 8:50 PM
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Originally Posted by DrjonesUSA View Post
There are no coincidences in politics.......

Very curious to see how this pans out.....
This.
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