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Survival and Preparations Long and short term survival and 'prepping'.

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  #41  
Old 06-30-2011, 8:07 PM
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Hey now, don't spin what I said. I NEVER said it wouldn't burn?? But I don't think a beer bottle full of gas will necessarily burn the place down either.
Like I've said. I'm doing the best I can with what I have available. I can't plan for every possibility. Show me YOUR plan so I can pick yours apart.

QUOTE=Joewy;6690145]Yes, MOVE!

Just keep a lookout. And if you think that that oilbased, Tarlike roofing material wont burn.... Well, Ok. Watch the Malibu fires of a few years ago where just sparks landing on the roofs of those multimillion dollar homes with flat roofs did to those houses.[/QUOTE]
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  #42  
Old 06-30-2011, 8:23 PM
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Please if there is a mistake in my EMP knowledge let me know.

Most newer equipment use a breaker type "fuses" that will burn out before allowing harmful current to pass. The problem with EMP is that it staticly charges the air and can cause massive ESD damage in electronic circuitry that has only become smaller and more complex. However it is still electricity and must follow the path of least resistance and would need a massive amount of energy to cause an arc inside say a starter that is encased in a neutral shell inside a grounded chassis. Your cell phone might be toast but your car probably would most likely survive. Depending on the blast particulars if you're inside the grocery store that is a warehouse style building you may even be able to still play angry birds but don't count on getting tv reception as saturation of charged particles in the upper atmosphere will scatter all but the most robust signals.

I work in a HEMP hardened building and almost everything that runs into the building is run in fiber and what isn't fiber is run through giant band-pass filters. The best place for me to be in the event of an EMP disaster is at work.

I figure that in the all but the worst case scenarios life would start to get back to normal with in a week or so. How I would react depends on the context. It's unlikely that a terrorist organization would have the resources or imagination to detonate something in the upper atmosphere. More likely if they had nuclear material they would settle for a dirty bomb type attack. If god forbid another country were to attack in this manner it would either be because we were already at war or a prelude to an attack in which case grab your gun and join the civil defense .
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Last edited by thunderbolt; 06-30-2011 at 8:29 PM..
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  #43  
Old 06-30-2011, 8:41 PM
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What would I have had last Saturday between my person and vehicle…

Last Saturday I was not carrying a CCW on me or in the vehicle. I would have had my EDC pocket folder, and about $150 in small bills, five $100 bills tucked in my wallet (which is where those bills have been for the past 6+ years), and in my vehicle I have a GHB, Vehicle Bag, and small Pioneering Kit.

Saturday…4:01 PM

I would drop my groceries and run back into the grocery store with a shopping cart before they realized that the generators will not be coming back on. Assuming this worked , I would avoid the water, bread and canned good isles as that is where most people might go to if the realize something bad maybe going down and I have plenty of supplies like that at home.

I would go for the following items in order, if possible:

-Protein and meal replacement bars (very valuable)
-Energy drink mixes
-Vitamins (diet will be weird for a long time)
-Powdered milk (enriched)
-Beef jerky
-Rice and beans and nuts
-Peanut Butter and Jelly (lots of this)
-OTC medicines and first aid supplies
-2-3 Propane canisters (if they let you buy the bottle and not just do refills)(for jerky making)
-Solid cuts of beef with low fat (as long as it is not ground or thin cut, it will not spoil for a few hours and you can cut off the outer layer when you get home)(for jerky and feeding the neighbors)
-Salt (10-20lbs)(for jerky making and preservation)
-Spices (for jerky making)
-Hard cheeses and fresh and sliced breads
-Candles and lamp oil
-Dog food and high fat treats like those with cheese or soft centers (for the pooches of course. They have better hearing then us and are a good alerting system)
-Hard candies and chocolate (consumption and trade)
-Large cans of Coffee (consumption and trade)
-Olive oil (keep food from burning)
-Bag(s) of ice (keep food in fridge longer)
-Any garden seeds they may have there (hybrids are better then nothing!)(Don’t know enough about gardening to know what fruits and veggies I could pick up from the store that I could harvest viable seeds from)
-Fresh fruits and veggies
-Baby wipes and butt creams

I would attempt to pay for all if this with a credit card first and really push on that. If they absolutely could not take one (via hand processing) I would fork over the cash. If they asked me to leave I would have told them no and that I would be gone shortly. If they seriously pushed the issue, I would ask to speak with the Manager and when he came over I would tell him much of the stuff I am buying will go bad with out his generator and I can pay cash. If he still resists, I will simply give him a $100 and tell him I just need a few critical things and would then leave after paying for them. I would absolutely NOT let it resort to threats or violence. Keep in mind, these folks may be very unaware of why the power is out and why the backup jenny is not working. It is simply not worth it and may have future repercussions. And as I mentioned above, I have supplies at home. These are just frosting on the cake and for my neighbors.

I would take the shopping cart over to my vehicle and pull out the GHB, pioneer kit, vehicle bag, blanket and other miscellaneous items to include removing the battery (the vehicle is new with lots of electronics, diesel, and an automatic so fried, no jump starting it, and no real fuel value for me). I would stuff the meat in a freezer bag I always keep in the trunk for when we go to one of the warehouse stores and buy something from the “cold section”. I would remove the fixed blade hunting knife out of the GHB, drape and tuck the blanket over the cart, then hide the knife in a fold of the blanket so it is easy to reach but not visible to anyone walking buy. Then I would head home which is under a mile or so away.

I would leave the truck unlocked as well so someone could use it as shelter and go through it themselves without having to break the glass.

Once I got home, I would ask my wife to help unload the cart into the house while explaining what I saw and what I think is happening. She read “One Second After” so would quickly understand. I would lock the house up, gather up and load the two pistols and shotguns we would use for home defense if necessary. The hunting and black rifle would stay in the gun safe. The two pistols would go into a thigh rig for my wife and a IWB holster for me. We would do our best to not show that we were armed for the first few days at least. I would then bring in from the garden shed, all of our camping and other supplies of value (chainsaw, shovels, axes, hand saws, fuel, oils, etc.). Then I would help my wife with anything she had left to do.

While I am doing this she would be watching our 2 year old child AND… pull out the WaterBOBs, http://www.waterbob.com, set them up in the three bathtubs in the house. This would provide about 180 gallons of fresh water (we are gravity fed here). Once the water started running she will get the cooler (Coleman 50 Quart Wheeled Xtreme 6 – get one…now )(bought for power outages) from the basement plus all the ice packs and other items from the downstairs fridge/freezer and bring them upstairs to the kitchen. Then start unloading the ice I brought (if any), the freezer, ice machine, and then the fridge. This cooler is rated to keep ice for 6 days with outside temperatures as high as 90 degrees so definitely beats the 8 hours of the fridge and 24 hours of the freezer. Most of the meats would be left in the freezer though as it would all be processed and turned to jerky or some would be cooked up that night on the BBQ grill.

Once this is done, I would visit my neighbors and invite them over for a power outage BBQ potluck over at my place while also suggesting some water storage tips. Before they arrived, all evidence of prepping would be hidden but the cooler, five gallon water dispenser, and a couple of extra five gallon jugs. I would share the water freely during dinner (I have eight full containers not including the one on the dispenser. These are the square kind you get for $5 at the warehouse stores). Given that the guest bathroom near the kitchen has one of the WaterBOBs in the tub and I don’t want them to know about this water, I would not let anyone use the bathrooms at my house but ask them to go to theirs.

I have a Grundig S350DL field radio with aftermarket antennas for AM/FM/SW. I also have a good supply of batteries for this as well. I keep this in a CERT Incident Commander Kit I assembled a couple years ago. If the radio did not fry as it was not hooked up to any antennas, power supplies, etc., and was in the basement under my CERT Responder pack which is loaded for bear…I would set this up on my second floor desk and string out the antennas in the hopes of picking up some transmissions.

During the BBQ, I would discuss the power outage and my thoughts on it. Then gauge the responses and talk about things everyone could do to help themselves; sanitation, trash, food, water, security, communication, batteries and flash lights, candles, sleeping with no HVAC, etc. Then suggest a second refrigerator freezer blowout potluck the following afternoon.

That night I would put noise traps in front of all the doors and windows and go to sleep early.


Sunday…

Wake up early and fix a big breakfast on the grill. Then start preparing the meats for turning into jerky and spend all day on this. I would have invited the neighbors over to watch and help and to do this themselves.

Once the first batch of meet was drying out, I would setup an information stand. Remember the CERT Incident Commanders Kit I mentioned above…I would setup the 10x10 shelter with two walls up, card table, and chairs. To these walls I would tape sheets of butcher block paper and would write down suggestions and ways everyone could preserve their resources. I would also, create an information board to post information as it came in and a list of needed supplies and their purposes. I would ask for volunteers to man it and the radio. We might offer other things as well depending on ideas people had.

At some point that day I would take the bike and an empty backpack and ride around the town to see what is going on and attempt to gauge people’s state. I would stop in at the Fire House, Police HQ and Town Hall to see what was known (I live in a town of about 16k in the suburbs of a big city). I would ride over to the pharmacy, auto parts store, grocery store, bank, bike shop, and hardware store and see what was going on and chat with people. At no time would I leave my bike alone and would be carrying concealed (though I expect no major issues developing as of yet). I would tell everyone I met about the information center we stood up, the potluck that afternoon, and a community meeting at 4 and suggest they stop by, have a bite, have a drink, look it over, and help however they could.

At some point during the potluck I would I would address the crowd and tell them what I thought we as a neighborhood could do if we pooled our resources. I would talk about how if we acted quickly we could make a lot of difference now, but that if we waited we would miss out on opportunities. I would ask for:

-Working generators to provide power for the Info center refrigerator and freezer for storage of medicines that needed to be kept cool and community food that might otherwise go bad as well as to power and recharge radios
-Propane canisters, grills, large pots and water storage containers
-I would ask for people to identify any critical skills such as medical, military, police, fire fighting, construction, mechanic, teachers, scientists, etc.
-I would ask for volunteers to man the info center 24/7, walk patrols, or assist the police and fire department, or other projects that require labor
-I would suggest that we could setup a day care of sorts to allow parents to work with the various other projects

And I would tell them to tell more people and to come back the following day (Monday) for another pot luck and another community meeting. By this time (Monday afternoon) I would assume the Town Mayor, Council, Police Chief, Fire Chief or someone similar would attend or likely take over the efforts. As a trained CERT (Community Emergency Response Team), this transition of command is normal and acceptable. The person taking over would likely have better skills at this than I or any of the volunteers to this point.

I would go home and start improving physical security around my house. I would go to bed as early as possible.


Monday…

Breakfast, jerky, Info Center, recon the town, gather information on what others are doing, pass along the invite and location of the info center, try and get this information to one of the Town Leaders, jerky, info center, improve security, potluck, community meeting, improve security, finish jerky, go to bed.


Tuesday – Saturday…

Breakfast, Info Center, recon the town, gather information on what others are doing, pass along the invite and location of the info center, try and get this information to one of the Town Leaders, info center, improve security, potluck, community meeting, improve security, go to bed.


Note 1: When I say Info Center above, it involves, reviewing and updating the postings, information, labor parties and efforts, meeting with other leaders and making plans, etc.
Note 2: While I am doing all this work, my wife is watching our child or helping with the day care group. When she is not doing that she is working on things around the house such as security, maintenance, food prep, sleeping, just being there, etc.

As long as there is hope and community effort, there will be a force to fight off the otherwise hopeless situation. At some point down the road, we will all need to leave or face starvation as there is no new food coming into this cycle. Between then and now, something may change that and until then, I will do my damnedest to keep the community together and group focused rather than individually focused.

Enjoy and happy Prepping
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Last edited by TheChief; 06-30-2011 at 9:05 PM..
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  #44  
Old 06-30-2011, 8:44 PM
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Apparently there is a character limit and I hit it with that last post. I had to knock off over a thousand charcters

AND...that was my 100th post...I am a Member now. RESPECT MY AUTHORITAH!




I am going to bed now.
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Last edited by TheChief; 06-30-2011 at 8:48 PM..
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  #45  
Old 07-01-2011, 5:27 PM
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Depends on the time of the day.

Had it happened saturday morning, we'd have been out running errands with about 12rds between us due to CCW. We'd have probably locked her car and walked home after realizing we couldn't call a tow truck. Once home we'd have just waited it out and fixed a cold dinner.

Had it happened saturday afternoon / evening, we were already drinking and would have assumed it was just a power outage. We'd have probably kept drinking, lighted a bunch of candles and turned on my wind up radio, ultimately having sex and then passing out. We wouldn't have realized the magnitude of the situation until morning.
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  #46  
Old 07-01-2011, 6:42 PM
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I would leave the store and put all my stuff that I had currently in the car in the grocery cart. I may or may not go back in to buy more stuff - most likely not as I am pretty well stocked for everything except dog food. May try and buy more dog food, small propane bottles, cigs/vodka for trade. I would load up my survival backpack along with my knife, stun gun and pepper spray on my person and head out for home which is about two miles away.

Once home I would go fill up my two water bobs if the water was still running as well as many containers as I could with water. I would then inform my family as to what I think happened and we would start assessing what do do next. I would be planning to bug in for as long as I could as I have children.

Would do an ammo check and try and hide as many of my supplies/buckets that I could. I would have my husband go collect my mother in whatever vehicle (car/motorcycle) is still working. I would make sure my gates are locked and look at trying to make my home more defensible.

As times goes one we will try and appear like everyone else while keeping watch on our house. I hope those Appleseeds pay off with marksmanship for husband/son. I have enough food and water for some time but water will be an issue for the long term.

I will then hope that it is resolved quickly and doesn't turn into a total One Second After or The Road scenario.

I would love to buy some property with a well somewhere like Wyoming where we could bug out for the long term but that is not feasible at this time. I don't have any like minded neighbors but there might be one or two of them that could come to my house as I have the largest property and possibly band with us but they have very noisy kids so that won't work.

I would do my best to try and keep my family safe and hope that order is restored quickly. Husband would be on roof at night and son would be in backyard. I would be in house with daughter.

It is one thing to prep but then it is totally another to really think about this if you live in a typical suburban environment.

I would then look at my family and say "see I am NOT CRAZY I told you something might happen one day". Hee hee.
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  #47  
Old 07-01-2011, 7:14 PM
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Question: Like a couple of others I assume city water will be on for some time because the city uses large tower tanks for gravity flow. I Knox their pumps, generator and filtration systems would be dead.....so is the water in those towers treated as it comes down or as it's pumped up? I figure 90 minutes of clean water? No?
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Old 07-02-2011, 2:40 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ripon83 View Post
Question: Like a couple of others I assume city water will be on for some time because the city uses large tower tanks for gravity flow. I Knox their pumps, generator and filtration systems would be dead.....so is the water in those towers treated as it comes down or as it's pumped up? I figure 90 minutes of clean water? No?
Hello Ripon83,

If your neighborhood has a water tower in reality, then yes, you can use it.

For the scenario let's assume it was pre-treated and safe for drinking. I would think it would be as why store nasty water in a tank near the customers when the treatment plants are likely further away.

As for how long will you have water at the faucet, it would depend on how much use it would really get by all your neighbors. I would assume it would last for up to a day but that is an assumption. for the scenario, let's assume the taps run dry by 4PM Sunday.

Hope that answers your questions.
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Old 07-02-2011, 6:37 AM
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Wonder if the old 1960 technology of the cessna 172's would still work?

If I posted this I would get flamed for wearing an aluminum hat.

Last edited by problemchild; 07-02-2011 at 6:39 AM..
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Old 07-02-2011, 6:58 AM
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I had assumed our water would flow until the tanks ran dry and posted as much in my early response. Nothing would change there and in a true/bad EMP experience I'd bug out after using up the freezer/fridge stocks by bicycle in the middle of the night/early morning hours. Using bikes and kiddie trailers we can take a decent amount of supplies and a place to go that is safe and will provide for our needs. By bicycle I think it would take 10 days to reach for us (about 350 miles). If I could obtain a vehicle (all mine are more current) then I would, but I doubt it. Vehicles would be HUGE targets too.
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Old 07-02-2011, 7:00 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by problemchild View Post
Wonder if the old 1960 technology of the cessna 172's would still work?
I don't see why not. Dual magneto ignition is basic and foolproof for a reason. It is also possible to hand start via the prop.

Vintage flight instrumentation is also pretty darn hard to kill, although I guess the gyros might be cooked.

More modern avionics would likely be useless, though.
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Old 07-02-2011, 7:27 AM
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If caught at the grocery store last Saturday, I would likely be screwed. I never carry any cash, and having a monthly pay schedule means I would probably have been broke anyway.

Not sure about the vehicle. 1993 vintage, pretty basic as far as electronics go. It does have a "limp mode" static program in the ECM ROM, so perhaps it would run. Still, it is fuel injected with an electric fuel pump, etc.

I don't have a CCW or keep any firearms in the vehicle. It would be a felony to have them on the property at work.

If no-go on the vehicle, I would grab the small pack I keep in it, load whatever non-perishables in it I could and start walking. I would attempt to find some bottled water, as the grocery store is 15+ miles from home and I am a 48 year old smoker who is horribly out of shape. Maybe I could beg or barter a bicycle.

Assuming I made it home, I would be OK for the short term. I have about 150 gallons of water stored (although I do need to refresh it), enough canned/dry food for a week or two and a reasonable supply of ammo for the rifles and shotgun. The stove and water heater are propane, I also have oil lamps, flashlights and batteries.

First priority would be cooking/eating/preserving perishables and taking stock of supplies (or lack thereof). I would also be talking with my neighbors about the situation, plans, etc.

I have a portable generator that will run my well pump, or could rig up a manual pump in short order. I also have a small solar/battery system for minimal power (assuming the inverter didn't fry).

I have an old motorcycle for transportation, although it would take a day or two to get it going.

I think I need to revisit my preps to be more conducive to "getting home" should I be in town/at work during such a situation.
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Old 07-02-2011, 8:05 AM
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I'd be in the same boat. My wife never lets me carry money.

However I don't think that would be a problem. As soon as the power goes out all commercial transactions stop. At least that's been my experience after 6 months in the grueling world of retail sales. The two times I've been in a Wally world when the power failed they quickly rounded us up and herded us out the door even some of the more stubborn of us. And why would they have any reason to think that it just wasn't a power outage? I don't think 95% of people would figure out what was really going on until way later (or if ever). That could work to your advantage or not. I read a good article (I'll try to find it) that basicly said that most people will stay within a mile or two of their home and wait for Ma-Gov to come and rescue them. Whatever happens I have faith in the infinite stupidity or my fellow human beings.

I've been told you can start a Piper Warrior from the prop but I've never actually seen it done and I don't think I'd wanna try. I think it would be a little harder to do the same with the Schweizer 300 I fly but the mags would be OK.

So we've got water for a day but what about gas? Most of my house runs on natural gas.
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Old 07-02-2011, 8:17 AM
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I suppose they would not even accept cash if they could not operate the register. Heck, it is nearly impossible to buy anything if they can't scan the SKU#, cash or not.

Any engine with a magneto ignition should be able to be started provided it has fuel, air and a way to turn it over. I once watched a guy prop-start an older taildragger (Cessna 170?) just to prove he could do it. I would not be the first to volunteer, though.

Re: natural gas, I have read the pumps used to pressurize the pipelines are actually powered by the gas, so it is considered a very reliable source, barring pipeline damage due to an earthquake, etc. My gas supply (propane) is limited, but if my 280-gallon tank is full, it will last me nearly a year. Even longer if I do not run the furnace.
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Old 07-02-2011, 8:34 AM
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Most retail outlets will close and send people out. You have to get to someone in charge and explain the situation. Its not hard. Does your cell phone work, how about any of the electronics in the store, notice any cars moving in the lot? Let me suggest something to you - gather a group of note pads and pens/pencils. Let one person with a cart in with one employee and write down what they are buying and the price. At the counter add it up, make change out of cash, and when its all over you be the hero for putting goods in peoples hands and running up your sales.
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Old 07-02-2011, 9:08 AM
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Although I'm not worried so much about an EMP as I am civil unrest when all of the social programs are cut and the dollar becomes worthless, I'm surprised at all of the people saying, "I'm gonna head to .... store and pick up a, b, c, d, e, f, etc.". Did you all forget that we live in California? The power didn't go out in South Central and they still rioted and looted everything they could. They pulled people from cars and beat the **** out of them. There was complete disregard for everyone and everything. I don't see that changing when the power goes out and 99.9% of the population realizes that they have nothing on-hand to survive past week one.

Instead of planning on going to the store after it happens, why not pick up what you plan on getting now? You don't need to get it all at once, but pick up a few things every time you head to the store. Within a few months, you'll be surprised at what you've stocked. That way, you won't have to worry about getting everything you need. You also have to realize that all of the stuff you're planning on getting is the same stuff that EVERYONE will want.

Me, I'm heading straight home, hunkering down and staying as incognito as possible. I'll pretty much live the same with the exception of planting a much larger garden.
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Old 07-02-2011, 9:12 AM
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While I have adequate supplies more is good. More helps you bargain, helps you recruit, and so forth. My interest and priority was some kind of trailer for the bikes - which you are right I should have now - but I don't. Hence if it happened last Saturday and I didn't have them I know my needs and priorities and that is it.

With an EMP you migh have electronic devices that work after the fact that were not connected, but its highly unlikly any power plants are kicking out the juice....so you'd have to have a generator capable. I think itd be a while before they get things back to normal and I think the unrest would be unreal after about 7 to 10 days....which is why I'd bug out.


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Although I'm not worried so much about an EMP as I am civil unrest when all of the social programs are cut and the dollar becomes worthless, I'm surprised at all of the people saying, "I'm gonna head to .... store and pick up a, b, c, d, e, f, etc.". Did you all forget that we live in California? The power didn't go out in South Central and they still rioted and looted everything they could. They pulled people from cars and beat the **** out of them. There was complete disregard for everyone and everything. I don't see that changing when the power goes out and 99.9% of the population realizes that they have nothing on-hand to survive past week one.

Instead of planning on going to the store after it happens, why not pick up what you plan on getting now? You don't need to get it all at once, but pick up a few things every time you head to the store. Within a few months, you'll be surprised at what you've stocked.

Me, I'm heading straight home, hunkering down and staying as incognito as possible. I'll pretty much live the same with the exception of planting a much larger garden.
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Old 07-02-2011, 9:14 AM
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This is the truth. Just this year I've been able to stock up enough to feel comfortable being able to wait out the obvious scenerios (30 days of food/water). Hit the 99 cent stores...every time you hit the supermarket..pick up some extra. My thing not to spend more than 99 cents for a meal. It's pretty easy once you start doing it. Hell you can get a 35oz can of spaghetti-o's for a buck! Every time (for a couple months) I went to the market..I'd walk down the aisle and look for cans for a buck..Chili, ravioli, stew. Buy it when you find it. $10 bucks here and $20 there and it really adds up. Water too. Cases of water for $1 a gallon are everywhere.

And...Remember, in just about every scenerio there is a window. From days to weeks. Even if we had a massive earthquake or emp....initially I don't believe you're gonna "Need" a gun to get home. Initially its mass confusion with some panic thrown in. You don't get predatory people till the food runs out. Looters maybe....but not random street level stuff.

That said...I still have a gun at work. Because of the obvious need (it's a business) and also because I have a motorcycle that I would be riding ....and I "could" see maybe someone trying to "take" my motorcycle because they "needed" it more (in their eyes) then me. But for the masses of walking people? No, it takes a few days to weeks before you'd "need" to be armed to walk around.


Quote:
Originally Posted by dandingo13 View Post
Although I'm not worried so much about an EMP as I am civil unrest when all of the social programs are cut and the dollar becomes worthless, I'm surprised at all of the people saying, "I'm gonna head to .... store and pick up a, b, c, d, e, f, etc.". Did you all forget that we live in California? The power didn't go out in South Central and they still rioted and looted everything they could. They pulled people from cars and beat the **** out of them. There was complete disregard for everyone and everything. I don't see that changing when the power goes out and 99.9% of the population realizes that they have nothing on-hand to survive past week one.

Instead of planning on going to the store after it happens, why not pick up what you plan on getting now? You don't need to get it all at once, but pick up a few things every time you head to the store. Within a few months, you'll be surprised at what you've stocked. That way, you won't have to worry about getting everything you need. You also have to realize that all of the stuff you're planning on getting is the same stuff that EVERYONE will want.

Me, I'm heading straight home, hunkering down and staying as incognito as possible. I'll pretty much live the same with the exception of planting a much larger garden.

Last edited by TurboChrisB; 07-02-2011 at 2:24 PM..
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Old 07-02-2011, 3:59 PM
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If you have a moving car/truck even motorcycle.....what makes you think some police officer isn't going to throw a badge down with 3 of his buddies and take it for the "public" good? Hell I could imagine bicycles even being potentially hard to defend.

As I wrote we'd bug out after about a week, but we'd do so on bicycle and mostly at night or very early morning hours and sleep hidden during the day. I need to scope my path out around Reno - I don't know that one and I'm pretty sure the GPS wouldn't help.
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Old 07-02-2011, 4:27 PM
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It could happen....you can only do so much to prepare.
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Old 07-02-2011, 6:22 PM
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Well if they are carless they would have a hard time catching you if you keep driving.
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Old 07-02-2011, 7:32 PM
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I have seen a number of posts where people say they will wait a week before heading out. Why is one week the magic number? Why not two days, or one month?

It is decision point I don't have a personal answer for yet so am interested in the whys from others.

Some of my thoughts are:

-If you leave after the first day or two you will get a head start over the crowds

-The sooner you leave the quicker you leave behind your much larger supply cache and comfort of home

-If you leave between 4 - 14 days you will likely encounter many more desperate and hungry people rather than waiting for 30 days after many have died off from starvation and struggle

-Unless you live in a true fortress or extreme hideaway, people will eventually start searching house-to-house. It may start out as a trickle but I can see gangs of people eventually forming...strength in numbers and all

So many differing points to consider when leaving. I have more, just not coming to mind at this hour.
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Old 07-02-2011, 7:40 PM
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thats why its good to keep guns and plenty of ammo readily avail
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Old 07-02-2011, 7:55 PM
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jhkutterer ?
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Old 07-02-2011, 9:07 PM
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Default A Week

It's just my guess based on my neighborhood, but I don't expect the unrest to be a serious problem here for at least 5 to 10 days. If the city managed to get water flowing and keep sewage flowing we'd be much better off. Sewer lift stations will be down and my guess is it'll take just a few days for the lines to fill up. By day 7 if that isn't resolved you have a real disease nightmare festering. I might be inclined to bail at day 3 or 4 if the impact is so bad that little is working or coming back online.



Quote:
Originally Posted by TheChief View Post
I have seen a number of posts where people say they will wait a week before heading out. Why is one week the magic number? Why not two days, or one month?

It is decision point I don't have a personal answer for yet so am interested in the whys from others.

Some of my thoughts are:

-If you leave after the first day or two you will get a head start over the crowds

-The sooner you leave the quicker you leave behind your much larger supply cache and comfort of home

-If you leave between 4 - 14 days you will likely encounter many more desperate and hungry people rather than waiting for 30 days after many have died off from starvation and struggle

-Unless you live in a true fortress or extreme hideaway, people will eventually start searching house-to-house. It may start out as a trickle but I can see gangs of people eventually forming...strength in numbers and all

So many differing points to consider when leaving. I have more, just not coming to mind at this hour.
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Old 07-03-2011, 9:12 AM
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I am going to catch it, here goes. Being thrust back from 2011 to 1800 is going to be a mess. DISEASE - think about the urban mess that won't be picked up on trash day, or sewage treated. My GG Grandparents had 12 children - 4 survived. G Grandparents had 7 children - 2 survived.

Urban children are going to find it very hard to cope and survive.

Urban Females - unless they have objective backgrounds - Mil, Public Safety, Medical etc. will have a very hard time compartmentalizing the stress and being able to cope.

Urban Males - same as above. Young bucks with more ego than sense will probably get themselves killed sooner than latter, older with 30 lbs of gut will crap out.

Organized criminal gangs will go berserk.

Bottom line over 90% will not make it. Disease, Disease Disease. Rotting garbage, rotting people - it will be a nightmare - only the very lucky will survive and thats about it. The question will be survive for what purpose.

Lord of the Flies is a better book to study.
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Old 07-03-2011, 9:56 AM
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Well, in a true "streets shut down" situation, like the last San Francisco earthquake, bikes were only able to navigate the streets cause they have the ability to split lanes (or ride on a sidewalk). All a cop (or someone) would have to do is stand in your way with a gun drawn. If you're splitting lanes, you wouldn't always be able to just ride around them. Course that's why I will be armed at any time that I was riding. Say someone pulls a gun out to take it. Ok take it. Now they have to get on it...and put BOTH hands on the handlebars...guess what happens then!


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Well if they are carless they would have a hard time catching you if you keep driving.
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Old 07-03-2011, 6:40 PM
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Why do you need cash? A shtf scenario, what if cash is worthless, say the government fails, goes bankrupt, the dollar falls, will stores even be accepting cash. Gold and silver are worthless, cashier says what's this, I have to call the manager. Plus, Walmart employees are human, do you think cashiers are going to stay at their dead end jobs adding up items and trying to figure out sales tax without a calculator? They will want to be with their families. On that day, some you say you will be at the ammo counter buying up all the ammo, that man just bought up all the 9mm, 223 12 gauge birdshot, attack him, you shoot defending yourself, ccw man sees a man with a gun shooting people, boom boom, shootout. Plus I need a manager to sell you ammo, the key is missing, sorry sir I can't sell you ammo, local police said no ammo sales, WHat do you do? Now that is a realistic scenario.
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Old 07-03-2011, 7:10 PM
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Default Ok but

Yes but that wasn't the scenario presented. I figure it will take some persuasion to get anything out of a store, but it would be worth the effort. Cash in the scenario given would be king for 24-48 hours. No cards, no known value of silver and gold so cash will rule. Most stores are corporate so employees won't really care, but they will care for themselves. As you educate them on the spot you can obtain the rewards of persuasion, and they get the rewards of your knowledge. All I really want from a store is bike trailers....

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Why do you need cash? A shtf scenario, what if cash is worthless, say the government fails, goes bankrupt, the dollar falls, will stores even be accepting cash. Gold and silver are worthless, cashier says what's this, I have to call the manager. Plus, Walmart employees are human, do you think cashiers are going to stay at their dead end jobs adding up items and trying to figure out sales tax without a calculator? They will want to be with their families. On that day, some you say you will be at the ammo counter buying up all the ammo, that man just bought up all the 9mm, 223 12 gauge birdshot, attack him, you shoot defending yourself, ccw man sees a man with a gun shooting people, boom boom, shootout. Plus I need a manager to sell you ammo, the key is missing, sorry sir I can't sell you ammo, local police said no ammo sales, WHat do you do? Now that is a realistic scenario.
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Old 07-07-2011, 10:05 PM
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My wife never lets me carry money.
and then
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Old 07-07-2011, 10:44 PM
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I had never heard of that book. Picking one up tomorrow thank you very much!

I was refering to One Second After by William R. Forstchen. Sounds like a similiar topic and situation.
doesnt anyone read playboy anymore??
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Old 07-08-2011, 2:31 AM
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Post removed, I knew somebody was going to misinterpret...

Last edited by AlpineWeiss; 07-08-2011 at 10:56 AM..
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Old 07-08-2011, 4:25 AM
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Several police officers I know would soon knock on my door. A band of mauraders is killing shop owners and taking their stuff. Will you help? Of course because I'm that kind of person. Together with a neighbor across the street a seasoned Iraqi vet and others recruited by the police we head out on bikes. AR's, magazines, and we track down the mauraders. From a sincere distance of 250/300 yards we demand they give themselves up, and a few seconds later (assuming you didn't) we open fire. Mauraders dead. Anyone that would take onto a horrible situation with immediate violence for their personal gain at the detriment of society is worthy of being hunted down and destroyed. Someone like that will bring out community together immediately for the good.
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Old 07-08-2011, 11:11 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ripon83 View Post
Several police officers I know would soon knock on my door. A band of mauraders is killing shop owners and taking their stuff. Will you help? Of course because I'm that kind of person. Together with a neighbor across the street a seasoned Iraqi vet and others recruited by the police we head out on bikes. AR's, magazines, and we track down the mauraders. From a sincere distance of 250/300 yards we demand they give themselves up, and a few seconds later (assuming you didn't) we open fire. Mauraders dead. Anyone that would take onto a horrible situation with immediate violence for their personal gain at the detriment of society is worthy of being hunted down and destroyed. Someone like that will bring out community together immediately for the good.
There really is no excuse for not having ones own supplies.
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Old 07-08-2011, 12:59 PM
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Default Misinterpretation?

What did I misinterpret? I read that you would kill shop owners who wouldn't let you take their stuff? Did I mis read that? I think that would cause many to gang up with law enforcement and hunt you down.


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Post removed, I knew somebody was going to misinterpret...
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Old 07-08-2011, 3:09 PM
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What did I misinterpret? I read that you would kill shop owners who wouldn't let you take their stuff? Did I mis read that? I think that would cause many to gang up with law enforcement and hunt you down.
I said use of force would be justified. That is anything from psychological to physical. You are the one projecting the fantasy of running around shooting up shops. Most efficient way is to trade some now worthless paper for what you need and leave (it's still a nasty thing to con somebody). Least effective and most dangerous as you have pointed out is to make a lot of noise and draw a lot of attention to your procurement. Plus it's a line I never want to cross.


If this scenario were an intended high altitude nuclear detonation 3/4 to all of North America would be with out infrastructure for years. Imagine taking our current national population and transporting them back to the 1700s with enough food to feed everybody for three days. This isn't going to be like going back to the wild west (as many people fantasize), we don't have those EMP resistant technologies anymore and we have a massive over population.

Do you really want to stand around playing God, deciding who is playing fair and who isn't when %95 of the people are going to be dead or wishing they were in a month? Are you really that much of a moral authority? In the face of a situation like this do you really think that is a good use of your time, attention or resources?

Say you did decide to play moral authority, it would be one of the worst strategic decisions you could make. You would be investing and risking your finite resources on ideological goals instead of practical ones. Furthermore it makes you a vulnerable and predictable target to forces like established street gangs. And it leaves your resources exposed. Your schedule of leaving in 6 days (Saturday to Friday) would be delayed, damaged or destroyed by worrying about other people's business.

Law and society will ultimately fail when people being to starve or panic. You know this is inevitable, your plan is to get out of the city as well. Some say we are three meals away, so from 24 hours to 96 hours after the event I guarantee you that anybody attempting to maintain order will be overwhelmed. If knowing that the battle will be lost in a short time frame is a known certainty why risk or invest any resources in fighting it? Especially if you have nothing to gain, unless you want to go raid the store for your buddies.

The moral landscape we are facing is that any accessible resource cache is going to be depleted or looted. It is an absolute sub one month inevitability.


I re-read my post this early and concluded it did look a bit ugly. The thing is the scenario is what would you do if this happened last Saturday? Well last Saturday I was traveling and I don't have the cubic feet or resources for a bail out kit. By exploring that path with my post I see that ethically and strategically one should have their own resources before such an event. If one wants to live with a clean conscience they must be honest with themselves and keep it clean.
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Old 07-08-2011, 4:49 PM
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While I'm sure urban areas like SF would face starvation; my home is in the middle of the farm belt of the central valley. This area produces far more food and has more water then the people in it can consume. I don't see that being our problem - in fact I can see our leaders wanting to get that food and water out of the area so that the good folks of SF don't imagine walking or riding bikes here for it.

I don't believe the situation would be as dire as you speak within 30 days - perhaps in some places or parts of the country yet, but not here.

Finally if LE asked for my help I'd be inclined to give it too them. If lawlessness starts as early as 3 hours into the equation I hope that people would deal with it and not ignore it and let others be victims. The resources of stores and such should and I beleive would be - shared by the masses - not taken by the brutal.

Would 90 or 95% of the nation disappear? I don't think it would - not in the central valley of CA. Perhaps in places where people fled (like SF) but not every where.
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Old 07-08-2011, 6:32 PM
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Now I see where you are coming from and to me your responses make much more sense. Sorry for being an ***. If I were in a community that had a chance of staying cohesive I would put every resource I had available into maintaining that order. I am convinced that small, cohesive and self sustaining communities are the only thing that will survive any SHTF scenario.

But in a concentrated urban center like SF or LA there is no benefit to playing that game. Being a city boy, this is where im coming from. If you EMPed LA the chaos three days later would be like nothing the world has seen before, I would beg, borrow and steal to escape that before it started.


According to the US DOT %80 of Americans live in urban areas (%87 of California according to US census). I would guess a large proportion would stay put to protect their property and await help. Sure the preppers would bug out but a certain percentage would also give up, leave, and cause problems for people in near by rural areas.

Of that remaining %20 that is rural how many are actually self sufficient in terms of water/food? My point being that having an apricot farm is helpful but in the local community is there enough variety of crops to have a healthy diet.

Which brings up another issue. All American farms depend on machines to be productive both irrigation and crop tending. With those disabled even living in what was once a self sufficient community might not be enough.

This is where I got that %95 number from.
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Old 07-08-2011, 7:53 PM
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That is the reason to have tractors and booster pumps around that have diesel engines with mechanical injection instead of the newer electronic models or an old Ford Truck with a 6.9 engine.
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Old 07-08-2011, 8:02 PM
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Best sit on them a while, or LE will lay claim to them for the betterment of society - just saying.

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That is the reason to have tractors and booster pumps around that have diesel engines with mechanical injection instead of the newer electronic models or an old Ford Truck with a 6.9 engine.
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