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California 2nd Amend. Political Discussion & Activism Discuss gun rights activism and 2A related political topics here. All advice given is NOT legal counsel.

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  #1  
Old 03-17-2011, 2:19 PM
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Default A gun kept in the home is 22 times more likely to kill a family member

We've all heard the statistic. "Guns kept in the home for self-protection are 22 times more likely to kill a family member or friend than to kill an assailant in self-defense. (Kellerman, et al., Injuries and deaths due to firearms in the home. J. Trauma, 1998, Aug;45(2):263-7)"*

Of course, it's not true. Dr. Kellerman's research was shoddy and his conclusions were suspect. Partially, it's because stories like this figured into Kellerman's statistical database.

Quote:
The shooting happened after Ernie Ferguson, 45, kicked in the door of his mother's and stepfather's house on Engine Branch Road, according to state police and Clay County Sheriff Kevin Johnson.

Ferguson's mother, Judy Gregory, got a 22.-caliber rifle and shot him as he was on top of his stepfather, Johnson said.
These incidents are tragic, but they surely aren't evidence of a "greater danger" to having firearms in the home.





*[NB: it warms my heart that it took me 10 minutes to actually find an Anti site that repeated it - most hits were from pro-gun sites refuting this statistic]
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  #2  
Old 03-17-2011, 2:25 PM
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There was a local newspaper article that didn't quote that statistic, but used the idea to discourage homeowners from keeping firearms even with a recent increase in home invasions in rural parts of the county.

The same reporter deduced an assault rifle was used in a shooting recently that resulted in no injuries, although his article quoted the police department as saying they had only found 3 shell casings at the scene and did not know the make or model of weapon they were looking for.
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  #3  
Old 03-17-2011, 2:26 PM
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the "ban the gun group" will always twist the facts to make themselfs sound right...no matter how wrong they are !
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Old 03-17-2011, 2:30 PM
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A gun kept in the home is 22 times more likely to kill a family member
Sounds like a good argument for CCW....

.
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Old 03-17-2011, 2:31 PM
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It's sad to say that most domestic violence, rapes, etc., are committed by family members or persons familiar to the victim. The woman with a psychotic estranged husband or the elderly man with a heroin addicted son. When guns are used by these types of people to protect themselves from a very real danger, it is unfortunate that it creates statistics that are used by those with an agenda to make it sound like guns are being used to kill loving family members.
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Old 03-17-2011, 2:32 PM
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My understanding is that statistic, like most "gun death" stats, includes suicides which totally swamp the data. Pretty much everyone who commits suicide by firearm is considered to have a "gun in the home", regardless of any other factors.
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Old 03-17-2011, 2:35 PM
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Originally Posted by Dr Rockso View Post
My understanding is that statistic, like most "gun death" stats, includes suicides which totally swamp the data. Pretty much everyone who commits suicide by firearm is considered to have a "gun in the home", regardless of any other factors.
The Kellerman study in particular also used a very "interesting" and carefully selected test group.
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Old 03-17-2011, 2:37 PM
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Now, the real question is, does the number of guns one has in the house increase the likelihood of killing a family member, and by how much? For if that's the case, quite a few calgunners can't possibly be still alive
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Old 03-17-2011, 2:45 PM
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My guns haven't killed any friends or family ever since I sat down with them and had a long talk about how that behavior just isn't acceptable in my household. I encourage all gun owners to sit down with their guns and have the same talk. Its the responsibility of all gun owners to ensure their guns just don't go off on their own killing people.
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Old 03-17-2011, 2:45 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by G60 View Post
There was a local newspaper article that didn't quote that statistic, but used the idea to discourage homeowners from keeping firearms even with a recent increase in home invasions in rural parts of the county.

The same reporter deduced an assault rifle was used in a shooting recently that resulted in no injuries, although his article quoted the police department as saying they had only found 3 shell casings at the scene and did not know the make or model of weapon they were looking for.
The Hanford Press or something like that, right? I sent him an email and called him out on how he deduced it was an AW based on casings and no make or model known (copied in the publisher, too). I also accused him of intentionally inflating the language in the article to fulfill some pre-determined political bent.

He replied that he heard the LEO's call it an assault weapon repeatedly and he reiterated it. I pressed and he admitted he just lapped that up like a saucer of milk. Then I accused him of journalistic laziness. I hope his publisher enjoyed the fact that some of the populace is paying attention and notices when they're full of stuff.

I asked the CLEO in Hanford how his cops made that determination (and repeatedly fed the FUD to the press) without credible evidence (at least they said no make/model known in the article) but didn't hear back. I guess he didn't like someone calling out his officers manufacturing conclusions with insufficient evidentary matter.
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  #11  
Old 03-17-2011, 2:46 PM
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a firearm in the home is 100,000,000 times more likely to protect your family than not having one
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  #12  
Old 03-17-2011, 2:50 PM
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Funny, I thought "their last figure" said you were 41 times more likely...

Maybe because 47.3% of statistics are made up
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Old 03-17-2011, 2:53 PM
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you are guaranteed a chance to save the lives of yourself and loved loved ones if you keep a gun in the house or on your person. All you need to do is make sure that everyone in the house understands that there is a weapon in the house and not to play with it. anyone old enough to learn the use of the gun should be taught how to use it and how to use it properly. There is plenty of info out there that you can study and practice with the family.
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  #14  
Old 03-17-2011, 2:54 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Write Winger View Post
Funny, I thought "their last figure" said you were 41 times more likely...

Maybe because 47.3% of statistics are made up
It was originally "43 times". Dr. Kellerman, under some scrutiny, revised his estimates down....twice.
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  #15  
Old 03-17-2011, 3:05 PM
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I like the way these people think, next idea is that everyone needs to park their car 5 miles from their home, it for the safety of the children

because 70% of all accidents are within 5 miles of the motorist's home
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  #16  
Old 03-17-2011, 3:25 PM
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anyone read the book FREAKONOMICS?

specifically chapter 5? IIRC...

they ask which is more dangerous. a gun or a swimming pool?

duh...

http://www.freakonomics.com/books/
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Old 03-17-2011, 3:29 PM
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90% of all statistics are made-up.

22 times what?

I think based on the number of guns in the country owned by US citizens and THEN compare it to the number of gun crimes... gun crimes as bad as they are, are probably a fraction of a percentage, let alone the ones "killing a family member" (accidental or on purpose).

I hate statistics used for any purpose.
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  #18  
Old 03-17-2011, 4:00 PM
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A gun kept in the home is 22 times more likely to wake up and shoot your kids.

I've always hated this statistic. It is the first one any anti pulls out (whether they are mildly anti or really anti).
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Old 03-17-2011, 4:04 PM
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73% of deaths occur in hospital, and 79% of deaths happen in bed. Therefore going to bed in a hospital is extremely dangerous.



(numbers made up of course)
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  #20  
Old 03-17-2011, 5:26 PM
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I don't remember the percent for sure but I remember one of their quotes that said a person is 60 ish percent more likely to be threatened with a gun by a gun owner then a non gun owner.

The logic in that stat just makes me think their stupid
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Old 03-17-2011, 5:32 PM
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Can anyone link some studies that refuted this research, or studies that come to a more beneficial conclusion.
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  #22  
Old 03-17-2011, 5:49 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Funtimes View Post
Can anyone link some studies that refuted this research, or studies that come to a more beneficial conclusion.
Here's a start: http://guncite.com/gun_control_gcdgaga.html

Browse the whole guncite system.
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Old 03-17-2011, 6:05 PM
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Quote:
There was a local newspaper article that didn't quote that statistic, but used the idea to discourage homeowners from keeping firearms even with a recent increase in home invasions in rural parts of the county.
Honestly, I could never understand why people allow State sponsored propoganda influence their beliefs.
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Old 03-17-2011, 6:10 PM
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Stockholm syndrome.
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Old 03-17-2011, 8:46 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RyanAnchors View Post
A gun kept in the home is 22 times more likely to wake up and shoot your kids.
Twenty two times more likely than I am to come home tomorrow and find my dog wearing a tutu while rehearing the Pas de Deux from the Nutcracker with Summer Glau in the role of the Sugar Plum Fairy.
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Old 03-17-2011, 9:04 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Librarian View Post
Here's a start: http://guncite.com/gun_control_gcdgaga.html

Browse the whole guncite system.
Great link! Very informative.
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Old 03-17-2011, 9:12 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jdberger View Post
... "Guns kept in the home for self-protection are 22 times more likely to kill a family member or friend ...
A family member that needed killing!
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Old 03-17-2011, 9:19 PM
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Hmmm since there is no way a firearm can kill the math should look like:

22x0=0

Or they could say "irresponsible/unsafe PEOPLE are 22 times more likely to kill a family member"

The latter makes more sense.
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Old 03-17-2011, 9:20 PM
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seriously though; antis who rely on that "pseudo stat" are easy targets; just tell 'em you'll NEVER leave your GUN at home AGAIN.

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A family member that needed killing!
everyone's got family somewhere.
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Old 03-17-2011, 9:31 PM
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And 100% more likely to kill the bad guy who gets into your house uninvited with ill intent. Compaired to if you didn't have it.
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Old 03-17-2011, 9:31 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stix213 View Post
My guns haven't killed any friends or family ever since I sat down with them and had a long talk about how that behavior just isn't acceptable in my household. I encourage all gun owners to sit down with their guns and have the same talk. Its the responsibility of all gun owners to ensure their guns just don't go off on their own killing people.
Rotflmao...I think I have found a signature line....
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Old 03-17-2011, 10:19 PM
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A hospital analogy works. Taking a loved one to the hospital means that you're 22 more likely to kill a family member. It's about as illogical. Then again if you've followed the Kellerman study you know it has been debunked. Yet these people are still repeating it today.
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Old 03-17-2011, 10:58 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stix213 View Post
My guns haven't killed any friends or family ever since I sat down with them and had a long talk about how that behavior just isn't acceptable in my household. I encourage all gun owners to sit down with their guns and have the same talk. Its the responsibility of all gun owners to ensure their guns just don't go off on their own killing people.
Sage advice!
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Old 03-17-2011, 10:59 PM
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For the record. Kellerman at one point disavowed that position, admitting that it was falacious.
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Old 03-18-2011, 7:35 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stix213 View Post
My guns haven't killed any friends or family ever since I sat down with them and had a long talk about how that behavior just isn't acceptable in my household. I encourage all gun owners to sit down with their guns and have the same talk. Its the responsibility of all gun owners to ensure their guns just don't go off on their own killing people.
I just spit coffee on my monitor...
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Old 03-18-2011, 7:42 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stix213 View Post
My guns haven't killed any friends or family ever since I sat down with them and had a long talk about how that behavior just isn't acceptable in my household. I encourage all gun owners to sit down with their guns and have the same talk. Its the responsibility of all gun owners to ensure their guns just don't go off on their own killing people.
Forget your guns ----talk to your bath tubs, bath tubs are sociopaths!
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  #37  
Old 03-18-2011, 7:53 AM
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What's that saying?

There are lies, there are damn lies and there are statistics.
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Old 03-18-2011, 10:06 AM
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"Most pro-gun-control statistics, like internet quotes, are inaccurate." - Abraham Lincoln
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Old 03-18-2011, 12:15 PM
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A gun not kept in the home is infinitely more likely to not stop an assailant in self-defense than a gun in the home.

My number is actually accurate and bigger, I win
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Old 03-18-2011, 12:21 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jshoebot View Post
"Most pro-gun-control statistics, like internet quotes, are inaccurate." - Abraham Lincoln

I like it...
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