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California 2nd Amend. Political Discussion & Activism Discuss gun rights activism and 2A related political topics here. All advice given is NOT legal counsel.

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  #401  
Old 01-08-2013, 7:42 PM
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I expected them to go for an en banc hearing, just on gaming theory alone.

People seem to assume that the opposition is stupid. That's a bad idea. No, they know how the game is played just as we do, and they know the strategic consequences of this going en banc just as we do.

The real question is the likelihood of the case being taken en banc. One would think that it's unlikely given the composition of the 7th Circuit, but after Sandy Hook, I have to assume that the chances are much greater now than they had been previously. Everything depends on how many of the 7th Circuit judges were on the fence about carry prior to Sandy Hook (as opposed to being firmly in favor of it).
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  #402  
Old 01-08-2013, 7:55 PM
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...and The Artist Formerly Known as LCAV
Priceless. Childish too .
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  #403  
Old 01-08-2013, 8:01 PM
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Originally Posted by hoffmang View Post
Chicago and The Artist Formerly Known as LCAV - http://www.hoffmang.com/firearms/moo...2013-01-08.pdf
My that's princely of you :-) That kind of politeness went out about, oh, 1999 ...

I'll leave now. Keep your tomatoes and eggs for the next clown, please.
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  #404  
Old 01-08-2013, 8:08 PM
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Priceless. Childish too .
I really do not get their new name. Was it an admission that they're not really against all violence, just gun violence?

-Gene
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  #405  
Old 01-08-2013, 8:28 PM
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I really do not get their new name. Was it an admission that they're not really against all violence, just gun violence?

-Gene
"Gun" is an emotional word well suited for emotional agendas. "Law Center" suggests institutionalization over "Legal Community."

I'd just call it "coming out of closet."
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  #406  
Old 01-09-2013, 8:22 AM
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Originally Posted by hoffmang View Post
I've just posted the two anti-gun amicus briefs to the en-banc petition:

Brady - http://www.hoffmang.com/firearms/moo...2013-01-08.pdf
Chicago and The Artist Formerly Known as LCAV - http://www.hoffmang.com/firearms/moo...2013-01-08.pdf

VERY good.


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  #407  
Old 01-09-2013, 9:07 AM
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God I am so SICK & TIRED of irrational, immature, emotionally retarded people seeking to prohibit guns because they are afraid of them, trying to use the cover of 'public safety' and 'for the children' to do so. Is "...shall not be infringed" really that difficult of a concept? The second brief left me with the impression that the Amici were arguing that allowing open carry would make the police's job a little more difficult and cause a change in tactics, and therefore shouldn't be allowed. Both briefs discussed that they felt that the court was essentially an activist in the Moore v Madigan decision, attempting to make policy when the legislature should be making policy, but apparently missed the part where the court sent the damn thing BACK to the Illinois state legislature to create a policy that passes muster.

These people make me sick. Absolutely disgusting, pathetic excuses for human beings. "As sheep, we are so afraid of the wolves, that we think even our shepherds and sheep-dogs should be dis-armed. We know criminals will still have guns, but it's better to be a victim of gun violence than to perpetrate gun violence in self-defense." Freaking cowards.
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  #408  
Old 01-09-2013, 2:07 PM
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The 7th has requested an answer from Gura according to a poster over at The Firing Line. I haven't found a link to confirm yet, but here is a link to that thread.
http://thefiringline.com/forums/show...451189&page=15
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  #409  
Old 01-09-2013, 2:33 PM
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I'm not a member over at The Firing Line. What are they asking for an answer about? Pardon my ignorance if it's already been answered.
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  #410  
Old 01-09-2013, 2:39 PM
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Petition for En Banc was filed and the courts are awaiting a response on the En Banc petition from SAF/Gura.....Why they should or shouldn't grant the request(I would assume).
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  #411  
Old 01-09-2013, 2:55 PM
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Coded Dude, that is exactly correct.

The court had 14 days to request an answer. This was extremely fast. Once Gura makes his answer (due on 23 Jan), the court has 14 days to call for a vote. If no vote is called or the vote goes against Madigan, then no rehearing.

The clock to file cert at SCOTUS is currently still ticking.

Gura (as you may already know) filed for cert on the Kachalsky case yesterday. If things go in an orderly manner, we may know if cert is granted before this session recesses. It's a good case, but it's still a crap shoot.

In Moore, if Madigan loses the rehearing pitch, she won't being losing anything if she files for cert. I suspect that if this happens, the Court will hold Kachalsky and grant cert on Moore. This is based on the fact that Heller and McDonald were complete bans, as is Moore.

One can also hope that during the interim, Woollard is decided (and in our favor), and this will pretty much guarantee the Court will take one of these cases.

Lots of different ways this can fall out and we can only speculate at best.
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Last edited by Al Norris; 01-20-2013 at 11:51 AM.. Reason: noticed typo
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  #412  
Old 01-09-2013, 3:03 PM
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One would also hope that Richards would also be decided in our favor (though certainly not optimistic...it IS the 9th Circus after all.
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  #413  
Old 01-20-2013, 11:19 AM
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Originally Posted by hoffmang View Post
I really do not get their new name. Was it an admission that they're not really against all violence, just gun violence?

-Gene
Next change will be from LCPGV to just LCPG.
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  #414  
Old 01-23-2013, 6:47 PM
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Today was the day that both Shepard and Moore were to respond to the circuits request, re: en banc hearing.

Earlier this afternoon, the attorney for Shepard, Charles Cooper, filed his response in opposition.

While the response is overall pretty good, Mr. Cooper has taken the liberty of undermining Alan Gura's argument in Kachalsky by claiming that there is no circuit split. sigh.

As of this post, Gura has yet to file a response for Moore. After reading Cooper's brief, I suspect Gura is rewriting.
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Last edited by Al Norris; 08-30-2013 at 6:16 PM..
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  #415  
Old 01-23-2013, 7:22 PM
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Gura's co-counsel filed. I can't upload it from my iPhone, but will post in a few mins.
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  #416  
Old 01-23-2013, 7:27 PM
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Brief attached...

Last edited by fizux; 11-08-2013 at 5:33 PM..
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  #417  
Old 01-23-2013, 7:49 PM
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Thank you Al & fizux for your timely updates. Interesting reading.
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  #418  
Old 01-23-2013, 8:26 PM
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As far as inebriated speed reads let me comprehend:

Cooper's response was well written, less the dissenting opinion of the circuit split.

Gura, as always, frickin' nailed it.

Now we wait 14 days for the decision - two weeks!



Or maybe it was 28 days, I'm not sure ...



That should cover it.

Thanks Al and fizux!
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  #419  
Old 01-23-2013, 9:29 PM
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  #420  
Old 01-23-2013, 10:20 PM
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Publicly available archive quality URLs here:

Moore/SAF/Gura - http://www.hoffmang.com/firearms/moo...c-20130123.pdf
Shepard/ISRA/Cooper - http://www.hoffmang.com/firearms/moo...c-20130123.pdf

-Gene
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  #421  
Old 01-24-2013, 9:07 AM
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Man I don't know how to explain it, but I love reading SAF/Gura briefs....they are awesome!

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If every constitutional case is merely an invitation to deferentially
review the reasonableness of legislative decisions, the Constitution is
pointless.
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watching this state and country operate is like watching a water park burn down. doesn't make sense.
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  #422  
Old 01-27-2013, 11:10 AM
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What Illinois might or might not “prove” about the wisdom of the right to bear arms has no bearing on its existence. Triers of fact do not determine whether the government may establish religion, censor speech, prohibit contraceptives and abortion—or ban bearing arms.
^^ Truth and poetry!
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  #423  
Old 02-06-2013, 4:53 PM
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For amusement, I've played with estimating the administrative overhead for this.

Assume 3% of 28 million; that gives a nice number of 840,000.

Guess that each app review and approval takes a whole hour of staff time. Assume that the offices will not devote more (or less) than 8 hours per day, 5 days per week to this task.

That's 105,000 staff-days, or 525 FTE across the state (and we know the heavier burdens would fall on the more populous counties and cities).

An LA County Sheriffs Deputy gets a minimum of $4,702/month. A number of issuing agencies seem to believe that's the right/minimum level of staff to review LTC apps. 3% of LA's 7.5 million LTC-eligible is 225,000. That would be 140 FTE deputies devoted to nothing but LTC apps, every year, now until forever; wikipedia says there are nominally 9100 sworn members of LASO, so they would need about a 1.5% staff increase to use roughly $8 million dollars per year in staff time. (Benefits and other overhead not included here. Rule of thumb: salary * 1.5 to get salary + benefits for gov't employees. Overhead hard to guess, but can be as much as 1.3 * salary in what I've read.)

The answer is likely to be simplified process, a shorter process, and review by less-expensive staff -- if review is required at all in ordinary cases.

Then I will feel my taxes are finally being used properly for something I believe in. Someday Baca will be made to issue and it will cost him and the county.
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  #424  
Old 02-06-2013, 5:47 PM
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My understanding is that the 7th Circuit panel had until 2 days ago to ask for a vote on whether or not to grant the en banc request. Do we know if that happened? If so, by what time must the vote take place?
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The real world laughs at optimism. And here's why.

I hope I end up having to donate another $1000 to CGF... However, this $500 is one I hope to not have to donate...
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  #425  
Old 02-07-2013, 5:43 AM
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No news as of yet, but yesterday was the supposed deadline to call for a vote.

http://thefiringline.com/forums/show...451189&page=16
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  #426  
Old 02-10-2013, 3:58 AM
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Any updates anyone? I can't find anything.
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  #427  
Old 02-10-2013, 1:35 PM
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No news means that a Judge has called for a vote and the voting will be complete by Friday this week.

-Gray
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  #428  
Old 02-10-2013, 1:37 PM
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Here's to hoping they don't take the case and let the decision stand.
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  #429  
Old 02-10-2013, 2:13 PM
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Here's to hoping they don't take the case and let the decision stand.
The math doesn't look good for the state. Judge Posner is well respected in the 7th Circuit. We can assume that Judge Williams (the 1 dissenting judge) called for a vote. They need 6. Posner & Flaum are definite no's. Easterbrook is a no, and the two majority Ezell judges (Sykes & Kanne) would likely vote no. There are only 10 active judges on the court so....
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  #430  
Old 02-10-2013, 3:05 PM
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The math doesn't look good for the state. Judge Posner is well respected in the 7th Circuit. We can assume that Judge Williams (the 1 dissenting judge) called for a vote. They need 6. Posner & Flaum are definite no's. Easterbrook is a no, and the two majority Ezell judges (Sykes & Kanne) would likely vote no. There are only 10 active judges on the court so....
Not only that, but the judges that are likely to vote "no" also know what is at stake if this decision is taken en banc. That will serve to reinforce their "no" vote. I expect that will turn the two majority Ezell judges' votes into certain "no" votes.
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The real world laughs at optimism. And here's why.

I hope I end up having to donate another $1000 to CGF... However, this $500 is one I hope to not have to donate...
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  #431  
Old 02-10-2013, 6:56 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gray Peterson View Post
The math doesn't look good for the state. Judge Posner is well respected in the 7th Circuit. We can assume that Judge Williams (the 1 dissenting judge) called for a vote. They need 6. Posner & Flaum are definite no's. Easterbrook is a no, and the two majority Ezell judges (Sykes & Kanne) would likely vote no. There are only 10 active judges on the court so....
Thanks for the analysis, Gray.

Looks like it is highly unlikely to go en banc -- that means one less time consuming detour enroute to SCOTUS. Assuming that is true, IIRC, either March 12 or 14 will be the next key date, the deadline for IL to request cert.

If we win carry at SCOTUS, that's when all this theoretical ground work has a practical benefit for MILLIONS of law-abiding yet defenseless Americans. Don't expect the antis to "go quietly into the night."
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  #432  
Old 02-10-2013, 7:54 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Paladin View Post
Thanks for the analysis, Gray.

Looks like it is highly unlikely to go en banc -- that means one less time consuming detour enroute to SCOTUS. Assuming that is true, IIRC, either March 12 or 14 will be the next key date, the deadline for IL to request cert.

If we win carry at SCOTUS, that's when all this theoretical ground work has a practical benefit for MILLIONS of law-abiding yet defenseless Americans. Don't expect the antis to "go quietly into the night."

I will be interested to see how SCOTUS responds especially considering the 2nd circuits challenge to SCOTUS..... when this plays out I'd love to see them agree with the 7th circuit and issue a harsh rebute to the 2nd circuit in the ruling one writen by justice thomas that clearifies to the 2nd circuit and others that 2nd ammendment challenges must be reviewed using a level above strict scrutiny or at least address some level of guidance for review. And then they probably will reitterate like they always do that government regulation is acceptible followed by a restatement of "like most rights, the Second Amendment right is not unlimited. It is not a right to keep and carry any weapon whatsoever in any manner whatsoever and for whatever purpose........ followed with a closing statement that says access can not be arbitrarily denied without giving a path to access the right....... something like that .... fill in the blanks this could be interesting
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Old 02-10-2013, 7:56 PM
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Gray Peterson Gray Peterson is offline
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Thanks for the analysis, Gray.

Looks like it is highly unlikely to go en banc -- that means one less time consuming detour enroute to SCOTUS. Assuming that is true, IIRC, either March 12 or 14 will be the next key date, the deadline for IL to request cert.

If we win carry at SCOTUS, that's when all this theoretical ground work has a practical benefit for MILLIONS of law-abiding yet defenseless Americans. Don't expect the antis to "go quietly into the night."
No, it's 90 days from the denial of en banc, though the 180 day time period for passing concealed carry is still ticking down.

Even if they cert petition now, it would take at least 4-5 months to even get SCOTUS consider cert. It would be late June before they'd take it for next term. June 9th is the day the 180 day period expires and the district court starts entering the preliminary injunctions against the state statutes. The state *might* make a motion to the 7th Circuit panel to stop the 180 clock, however I do not believe Judges Posner and Flaum (they would retain jurisdiction over the filings in the 7th) would approve that due to the fact that the state could have cert petitioned right after their loss on December 11th and they wouldn't do it, they chose to act cute and do the en banc route.

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Old 02-11-2013, 3:00 AM
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Thanks for the reply and outstanding posts here Gray.

So what can we extrapolate from the Illinois decision to "act cute" and request an en banc hearing before the 7th Circuit? Is this simply a desperate delaying tactic?

If the en banc request was a delaying tactic, it does not look like a smart move by Illinois since they don't have the votes for en banc in the 7th and the net reult will be a delay in requesting cert from SCOTUS and the implementation of SHALL ISSUE in IL!!
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Old 02-11-2013, 3:14 AM
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Default From the Chicago Amicus.....

"The City of Chicago faces a serious problem of firearms violence. In 2011, 83.4% of Chicago’s 433 murder victims were shot, and 82.4% of those murders occurred outside the home."

Well gee whiz.....So I wonder why we need our RKBA in Illinois? Is not our right and need to "bear" arms more acute outside the home...especially in Chicago!
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Old 02-11-2013, 3:22 AM
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Are there any residual ramifications for CA because of the IL decision?
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Old 02-11-2013, 5:19 AM
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The state *might* make a motion to the 7th Circuit panel to stop the 180 clock, however I do not believe Judges Posner and Flaum (they would retain jurisdiction over the filings in the 7th) would approve that due to the fact that the state could have cert petitioned right after their loss on December 11th and they wouldn't do it, they chose to act cute and do the en banc route.
In addition I would also say that the 180 day stay was put in place, as a courtesy, to allow the legislature the time needed to pass a proper carry law. Asking for a continence at this stage of the game would be an act of bad faith, on the part of the State.
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Old 02-11-2013, 7:43 AM
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In addition I would also say that the 180 day stay was put in place, as a courtesy, to allow the legislature the time needed to pass a proper carry law. Asking for a continence at this stage of the game would be an act of bad faith, on the part of the State.
We know they are acting in bad faith. Everybody knows that.
The text and meaning of the Constitution was clear for centuries, and they
acted in bad faith. There was a warning order issued in the Heller decision
and they continued. McDonald was a rather direct warning, but they
thumbed their noses. They lost in the case at hand and they gave the
court the finger.

The state is a oppressive malignant actor here, not a passive bumbling
idiot.
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Old 02-11-2013, 8:09 AM
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All the more reason to stay armed. The promise of "we'll protect you" is more empty than before, and if it suits the needs of the state, it won't protect you at all.

The streets in affluent parts of Lost Angles are taken care of, mostly. In South Lost Angles, not so much, but those people are a solid voting bloc and also have no money to buy influence. The same thing will happen with allocating police resources even more than it already has.
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Old 02-11-2013, 9:07 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gray Peterson View Post
No, it's 90 days from the denial of en banc, though the 180 day time period for passing concealed carry is still ticking down.

Even if they cert petition now, it would take at least 4-5 months to even get SCOTUS consider cert. It would be late June before they'd take it for next term. June 9th is the day the 180 day period expires and the district court starts entering the preliminary injunctions against the state statutes. The state *might* make a motion to the 7th Circuit panel to stop the 180 clock, however I do not believe Judges Posner and Flaum (they would retain jurisdiction over the filings in the 7th) would approve that due to the fact that the state could have cert petitioned right after their loss on December 11th and they wouldn't do it, they chose to act cute and do the en banc route.
Thanks for your analysis.
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