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Old 01-25-2013, 10:18 AM
bluesmoke9 bluesmoke9 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JeremyS View Post
I don't think the panic itself is over, but I think everybody who was concerned has already purchased absolutely everything they felt they needed and probably more than they could afford. Prices on GunBroker are coming down... things like basic ARs and lowers and PMAGs and such are coming back closer to normal. I don't think it's because the panic itself is over -- people are still hoarding their stuff and afraid of impending bans -- but they simply already have everything they could afford (and more).


What I'm interested to see is what will happen to the market if no new restrictions pass through Congress. What do all of these people do with all of the crap they stocked up on that they don't really need and couldn't really afford? The dude with 5 stripped lowers and 30 PMAGS and 4 bone stock M&P 15's or whatever... can he afford to have all of that money tied up in all of those things? It made sense when they were going to be banned forever and you could only have what you already owned. But.... now that he's looking at things that he paid 2x or 4x the normal price for and there's $10,000 tied up in that stuff? PLUS... inventory will come back in stores. In a big way, because people stocked up like crazy and nobody will be buying this stuff for a while because they already own so freakin' much of it. Now stores are selling it all on the cheap because they're having a hard time moving inventory. In order for the guy in my little made up scenario to get some money back, he's going to have to discount it good.

So... will we see a glut of stuff and super low prices in a couple months? I think if nothing happens, that'll be a "yes." Supply will exceed demand.


BTW -- I did see certain things shoot up suddenly. For instance, Kel-Tec Sub2000's. I don't think people expected that to really be in an assault weapons ban, being pistol caliber and no real evil black rifle military features. Well... it was explicitly named in Feinstein's bill. Prices SHOT up instantly. They're selling for over a grand on GB now. Why? Because it *might* be your LAST opportunity to EVER own one. That possibility, no matter how remote you think it might be, just drove the price up big-freakin'-time. AR's we all knew about, and everyone who wanted one already has it.
What you've outlined is exactly why I didn't, and won't, pay $2,500 for a $1,300 gun. I seriously doubt Feinstein's bill even makes it out of the Senate. Pro-gun state democrats aren't going to stick their neck out and something that will be DOA in the House. And even if a broad over-reaching bill did get out of Congress the Supreme Court looks much different and the case law much more favorable to gun rights than in 1994.
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