Originally Posted by spalterego
If the Ct. of App. finds both Peruta AND Richards failed to provide a required notice AND then remands back to state court that would clearly delay our efforts to get a decision from the Ct. of Appeals. from the Ninth Cir. This should NOT affect the chances of our ultimately winning (or losing) the argument but does delay us by another 1-3 years. Of course with the composition of the S. Ct. in possible flux under an Obama presidency, it would be nice to get this before the S. Ct. sooner rather than later.
We can't afford a delay of 3 years (probability of losing at least one of the Heller 5 to death in that time frame: roughly 37%
). I'd argue that we can't even afford a delay of 2 years (25% probability of losing a Heller 5 justice to death).