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Old 01-24-2013, 7:55 PM
rollsdeep rollsdeep is offline
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People keep saying it's not going to pass because we understand math and politics. Anyone who thought it couldn't pass in 1994 did not understand math or politics. When the 1994 AWB was passed there were 258 Democrats and 176 Republicans in the US House. Of the Democrats, 188 voted for the AWB, and and 64 voted against. On the Republican side 46 voted For the ban, and 131 voted against.

That's about 25% defection from each party's stand. It is logical to assume that similar percentages would not vote with the party this time- Yes, The climate in the country towards gun rights is very ugly right now, but it was very ugly in 1994 as well. There had been a number of mass murders by way of shooting in the prior couple years, including what up to that point was the deadliest shooting spree in US history in a fast food establishment in Kileen, TX, as well as The infamous Long Island Railroad murder spree. There was also a school shooting in 1989 in Stockton, CA which killed 6, and was the impetus for the CA AWB which was what the Federal AWB was based on and inspired by. Emotions were running high then too.

There are a lot of similarities between then and now, and a few very important differences.

242 Republicans and 190 Democrats currently serve in the US House. It is likely that NRA membership is roughly double what it was in 1994- the only statistics I can find on this is that Membership has tripled since 1978, which was 16 years before the 1994 AWB. It has been 19 years since 1994, so it is likely that more than half of that growth has been since 1994. Regardless of the specific stats, it is obvious that the NRA is a much more powerful political force than it was in '94. The NRA grades members of congress, and the grades have skyrocketed since the 90's because politicians know how powerful the NRA is, so they have fallen in line. See: http://votesmart.org/interest-group/...2#.UQIMZo5MY20 (then) and http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2...itics/nra.html (now).

Obviously it is important for us to not retreat now. I have written my representatives, and certainly encourage everyone to do the same. I just feel the frenzy of panic engulfing this site and our culture is not justified, and does not really do any good for us as gun owners, or the industry as a whole. Yes, the manufacturers are reaping massive profits right now. Gun shops did quite well for a while, but the consumers are paying for it, and the distributers and retailers across the country are going to have a very hard time continuing to do business if they have no product to sell, which seems to be the current situation.

If we could all just try to be rational and put our efforts into political action instead of overpaying for guns and ammo that will likely be much easier to come by and cheaper in a few months, I believe it would serve us all well.
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