Calguns.net

Calguns.net (https://www.calguns.net/calgunforum/index.php)
-   National 2nd Amend. Political & Legal Discussion (https://www.calguns.net/calgunforum/forumdisplay.php?f=331)
-   -   SCOTUS watch (https://www.calguns.net/calgunforum/showthread.php?t=1410676)

Paladin 12-22-2017 8:16 AM

SCOTUS watch
 
We in "anti 2nd A" territory (7 states and Wash DC -- ~27% of the US pop.), can't get any political relief.

Peruta demonstrated (and the dissents from denials in various RKBA cases indicated) we won't get any significant judicial relief either (other than maybe another Caetano), at least not until the composition of SCOTUS swings clearly and decisively to our side.

That being the case, having one thread devoted to SCOTUS' composition -- rumors, news and speculation -- is better than having various threads scattered around CGN and, frankly, makes more sense than another thread on any particular 2nd A litigation. (Actually, it is the ONLY thread in the Litigation forum that ultimately matters.)

I started this thread in the 2nd A Litigation forum since "winning" SCOTUS is a condition precedent to winning any of our RKBA back. Plus, the folks who visit here will more likely care about it more than the folks visiting OT (and it will be more easily found here than in OT by those who care).

With that, I shall proceed ...

*****

I wish I could start this thread with good news, but ...

Quote:

Supreme Court Clerk Hiring Watch: Are Reports Of Justice Kennedy’s Retirement Greatly Exaggerated?

Wow! Justice Kennedy has hired a full complement of four law clerks for the next Supreme Court Term.


This week, Justice Kennedy finished hiring his full complement of four law clerks for October Term 2018. Wow!

<snip>

Now, let me offer a caveat: hiring these clerks is no guarantee that Justice Kennedy will stick around until OT 2018. He can absolutely decide, whenever he wants, that he wants to leave the Court, whenever he wants. He’s a freaking Supreme Court justice; nobody tells him what to do.

<snip>

But still, the news of these AMK hires is notable. It doesn’t guarantee that Justice Kennedy is staying past the current Term, but it certainly suggests that he’s open to the possibility. And considering how confidently people have been talking about AMK’s very imminent retirement, even the slightest indication that he might be sticking around for longer is very newsworthy.
More at: https://abovethelaw.com/2017/12/supr...ggerated/?rf=1

AdamVIP 12-22-2017 9:34 AM

On one hand I'm sure he'd love to retire. Hes been there a long time and still has a good bit of retirement time left. On the other hand, being the swing vote hes the most powerful person on the court. Power is hard to give up.

I heard a morning show predict 8 months for his retirement this morning. Not sure I believe it. I think we'll see RBG leave the court before Kennedy.

Librarian 12-22-2017 12:17 PM

I'll go with 'let's have one thread', but since SCOTUS is a national issue, moved to National.

National is also less focused on explicit instances of litigation.

wireless 12-22-2017 12:22 PM

I doubt Kennedy would higher them knowing he'd then fire them when he retires.

It's crucial we keep the senate at the midterms. I'm fairly confident Trump will get 2 appointees by the time he loses re election.

speedrrracer 12-22-2017 1:13 PM

Yawn on the Kennedy "news". It was made clear when the rumors of his retirement first started that they were BS.

The stats are clear: Trump needs another term for us to end up on the "probably will" side of getting another appointee. Failing that next term, we have to get lucky, and very soon, because if we lose the Senate in the mid-terms, the value of Trump getting the appointment is dramatically reduced, if not eliminated.

Califpatriot 12-22-2017 2:01 PM

They usually don't fire the law clerks. Other justices take the orphans. Kennedy took Gorsuch when White retired. And besides, being a law clerk for a SCOTUS justice for a month is better for a lawyer than not being one at all. If they get fired, they begin working at their large firm for $250k the next week.

I don't know that Kennedy is the problem on RKBA cases. We didn't even get Alito on the Peruta dissent from denial.

Tango-Alpha 12-22-2017 10:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AdamVIP (Post 21060710)
On one hand I'm sure he'd love to retire. Hes been there a long time and still has a good bit of retirement time left. On the other hand, being the swing vote hes the most powerful person on the court. Power is hard to give up.

I heard a morning show predict 8 months for his retirement this morning. Not sure I believe it. I think we'll see RBG leave the court before Kennedy.

Ginsburg....that old Battleax. See's about as partisan and liberal as they come. Can't wait until she's gone. Same for Kagan and Sotomyer.

abinsinia 12-23-2017 8:49 AM

Someone in another thread was saying that several of the last Presidents got 2 nominations, even Bush Sr. did. So Trump should get at least one more nomination. However, It may not be to replace Kennedy or Ginsburg tho, it could be replacing another judge for non-retirement reasons.

colossians323 12-23-2017 10:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by abinsinia (Post 21064514)
Someone in another thread was saying that several of the last Presidents got 2 nominations, even Bush Sr. did. So Trump should get at least one more nomination. However, It may not be to replace Kennedy or Ginsburg tho, it could be replacing another judge for non-retirement reasons.

Like suffocating under your pillow in a hotel room on a hunting trip?

Blade Gunner 12-23-2017 1:35 PM

Figure we have slightly less than one year for Ginsberg and Kennedy to vacate. I have no confidence the GOP will maintain its razor thin majority in the Senate. I think they may have lost voters with the crumbs to the citizens tax cut.

Drivedabizness 12-23-2017 3:22 PM

The good news is the D's have a LOT of Senate seats to defend in States Trump won.

The tax bill and the rebounding economy are HUGE factors. And the D's totally unprincipled refusal to recognize most Americans will benefit only makes them look hypocritical to independents.

If we get the RIGHT vacancy on SCOTUS and reciprocity moves in the Senate, 2018 could be a VERY good year for the nation.

rplaw 12-25-2017 3:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by colossians323 (Post 21064845)
Like suffocating under your pillow in a hotel room on a hunting trip?

Wait, Sotomayor hunts? Whodathunk she'd be into outdoor sports. We should introduced her to that guy in Pennsylvania and they could go hunting together.

Jimi Jah 12-26-2017 9:12 AM

Old people can make all the plans they like but nature has a way of interrupting them.

Justices will leave when their health declines or they die. That is not predictable.

Paladin 12-26-2017 11:24 AM

This thread is about SCOTUS members and their possible replacements, not Trump's/GOP's tax overhaul or the state of the economy. Let's keep this thread on topic. :cheers2:

Librarian 12-26-2017 11:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Paladin (Post 21075538)
This thread is about SCOTUS members and their possible replacements, not Trump's/GOP's tax overhaul or the state of the economy. Let's keep this thread on topic. :cheers2:

Indeed.

ETA - if you want to talk about taxes, kindly start your own thread in OT.

Paladin 12-26-2017 11:50 AM

Quote:

Trump makes historic mark on federal bench in first year – and 2018 could be bigger

One of the most transformative years in the federal judiciary began with uncertainty and ends on a political high note for President Trump.

The White House, after winning confirmation for Neil Gorsuch to fill the Supreme Court seat held by the late conservative icon Antonin Scalia, has moved with record speed to fill vacancies on the lower federal courts – a surefire way for a president to help cement his legacy.

As of mid-December, 19 of Trump's 66 total nominees this year have been confirmed by the Senate.

By comparison, then-President Barack Obama had made only 26 choices – including Justice Sonia Sotomayor – half of whom were confirmed by mid-December 2009.

The impact under Trump is especially being felt on the appellate level, which could act as insurance of sorts if those judges are more inclined to support his policies as they face legal challenge across the country.

"The importance of this dramatic reshaping of the entire federal court system cannot be overstated," said former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, a Fox News contributor. "While it is easy to focus on the U.S. Supreme Court, lower and appellate court judges will make decisions that impact ordinary Americans on a daily basis for decades to come."
More at:
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2017...be-bigger.html

The article goes on to talk about possible SCOTUS nominees, about rumors of Kennedy or Ginsburg retiring (nothing substantial), but I didn't want to quote too much. Plus, the federal appeals courts, as we've most painfully seen in Peruta, do decide many issues (for the time being), and are the usual, but not exclusive, "feeders" for SCOTUS justices.

Mr. Beretta 12-27-2017 7:26 AM

SCOTUS Watch


I know I'm a little older and slower but I was going say probably a Rolex.

rplaw 12-27-2017 12:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr. Beretta (Post 21078613)
SCOTUS Watch


I know I'm a little older and slower but I was going say probably a Rolex.

Rolex's are great! (I wear one.) We should all chip in and buy Ginsberg a solid gold one engraved with the date of her retirement. 1-1-2018 sound good?

BAJ475 12-28-2017 10:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rplaw (Post 21079870)
Rolex's are great! (I wear one.) We should all chip in and buy Ginsberg a solid gold one engraved with the date of her retirement. 1-1-2018 sound good?

Where do we sign up? I have no doubt that she could get one for each wrist from those of us on CalGuns if she would commit to leaving in the next year.:D

Battosai1 12-29-2017 6:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tango-Alpha (Post 21063737)
Ginsburg....that old Battleax. See's about as partisan and liberal as they come. Can't wait until she's gone. Same for Kagan and Sotomyer.

Hopefully that old battle axe flys off from the handle soon, what a crusty old *****, the last piece of a pathetic Carter presidency.

Blade Gunner 12-29-2017 10:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Battosai1 (Post 21089259)
Hopefully that old battle axe flys off from the handle soon, what a crusty old *****, the last piece of a pathetic Carter presidency.



The general consensus is Ginsburg held out through Obama hoping to let Hillary be the first female President to make a SCOTUS appointment.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Tango-Alpha 01-03-2018 9:57 PM

Ginsburg is a total disgrace to the rule of law and to our judicial system.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

abinsinia 01-04-2018 7:48 AM

A while ago I was hoping Ginsburg would retire. I later discovered there is very very little chance that she will retire, even if she is really ill and can't do the job.

Quote:

“For the country, it could be four years. For the court, it could be — I don’t even want to contemplate that,” she said. “Now it’s time for us to move to New Zealand.”
https://nypost.com/2016/07/11/even-r...if-trump-wins/

Blade Gunner 01-05-2018 11:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by abinsinia (Post 21110500)
A while ago I was hoping Ginsburg would retire. I later discovered there is very very little chance that she will retire, even if she is really ill and can't do the job.



https://nypost.com/2016/07/11/even-r...if-trump-wins/


They have to carry her out in a box.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Baja Daze 01-06-2018 12:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blade Gunner (Post 21119218)
They have to carry her out in a box.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Correct....RBG is NOT going anywhere without a toe tag!

rplaw 01-06-2018 5:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blade Gunner (Post 21119218)
They have to carry her out in a box.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I'll BUILD her a blasted box if that's what it takes to put some hustle on the old battle axe.

Termite infested wood, bad mitering, rusty nails and all.

Blade Gunner 01-06-2018 5:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rplaw (Post 21121867)
I'll BUILD her a blasted box if that's what it takes to put some hustle on the old battle axe.



Termite infested wood, bad mitering, rusty nails and all.



That’s the Calgunner spirit, always willing to help.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Paladin 01-06-2018 10:01 PM

Quote:

Trump renominates 21 of his federal judge picks

President Trump announced Friday he intends to renominate 21 judicial picks whom he had nominated last year but hadn’t yet been confirmed by the Senate.

The 21 nominees come from eight states “that are suffering from judicial emergencies,” according to the White House press release.

The states are Alabama, Louisiana, Oregon, North Carolina, Colorado, Texas, Tennessee and Wisconsin.

Two of the renominated judges — Stuart Kyle Duncan of Louisiana for the 5th U.S. Court of Appeals, and Minnesota Supreme Court Justice David R. Stras for the 8th U.S. Court of Appeals — are scheduled to be considered by the Senate Judiciary Committee Thursday.
More at: https://www.washingtontimes.com/news...l-judge-picks/

winxp_man 01-08-2018 3:45 PM

Here is one from three days ago..... The comments show what idiots the peeps on the left are. :facepalm:


http://www.newsweek.com/ruth-bader-g...ate-law-771826

winxp_man 01-08-2018 3:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rplaw (Post 21121867)
I'll BUILD her a blasted box if that's what it takes to put some hustle on the old battle axe.

Termite infested wood, bad mitering, rusty nails and all.

And lets get this sucker reinforced with rebar real good.....! Dont want her deciding to come back. ;)

nicki 01-12-2018 11:59 PM

Playing "Chicken on SCOTUS.
 
From the "Lefties" point of view, RBG should have retired, the Republican Senate probably would have let Obama get a replacement.

Of course she is only going to leave when she is "good and ready".

Now the game is who will last longer, her or Trump?

Trump isn't going to get impeached.

I believe Trump will win re election in 2020 if he wants to run again.
People ultimately will vote on his record, not his "tweets".

The issue for Gingsburg will come down to can she survive on the SCOTUS till she is 91.

While everyone's eyes are on both Justices Gingsburg and Kennedy, many people are not paying attention to Justices Breyer and Sotomayor.

Justice Breyer is 79, the average male life expectancy in the US is 78. Yes he is healthy, but does he have 6 years left?

Sotomayor is a type 1 diabetic, that cuts her expectant life expectancy down from 81 down to 68. Right now she is 63. Highly unlikely she has 20 years, if she lives average life expectancy, she has 6 years.

Of course her risks of strokes are 4x higher than general population, she could become medically unfit and have to step down.

As frustrating as it is to see the SCOTUS not taking 2 amendment cases, when one or more of the above Justices is replaced, I hope that when the court does rule, they will make broad rulings that will effectively undo many of the "wrong readings" IMHO from the lower courts.

In the meantime there will be growing pressure on the Congress/Senate to pass some kind of Federal Gun Civil Rights Act.

Unlike President Bush, President Trump is very vocal on 2nd amendment support and the more the MSM attacks him, the more he comes over to us because we are the ones showing him "Love".

abinsinia 01-13-2018 7:59 AM

I don't think it makes sense to apply average life expectancy to these justices. They seems to typically live longer than average, and I'm sure they have extremely good health care. Although, they don't seem to take the greatest care of themselves..

They typically live till their 80's, Scalia was 79, but one month short of his 80th birthday.

mickri 01-22-2018 10:30 AM

Saw an article over the weekend about Sotomayor and how she had a close call on Friday morning. Paramedics were called to her home. Sotomayor's blood sugar level is tightly controlled according to the article and if it gets too low she only has about 15 minutes to get it corrected. What I found most interesting was how the article went into great detail about how all of her staff and clerks receive training on how to spot when her blood sugar is falling and what to do. The article then went on and on about how she is just fine and back to work. Sounds to me that at any given time Sotomayor is only 15 minutes away from cashing it in.
If she or one of the other liberals passes away I wonder if Kennedy would announce his retirement because with another conservative justice being appointed to the court he would no longer be the powerful swing vote to direct decisions the way he would like them to go.

USMCmatt 01-22-2018 11:27 AM

Not contributing here right now, but wanted to say this an awesome thread and I look forward to catching up on my SCOTUS news here as it applies to the 2nd.

Jimi Jah 01-23-2018 8:32 AM

Those judges will hang on until Trump is gone. It's their version of the statute of limitations.

selfshrevident 01-23-2018 8:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mickri (Post 21186710)
Saw an article over the weekend about Sotomayor and how she had a close call on Friday morning. Paramedics were called to her home. Sotomayor's blood sugar level is tightly controlled according to the article and if it gets too low she only has about 15 minutes to get it corrected. What I found most interesting was how the article went into great detail about how all of her staff and clerks receive training on how to spot when her blood sugar is falling and what to do. The article then went on and on about how she is just fine and back to work. Sounds to me that at any given time Sotomayor is only 15 minutes away from cashing it in.
If she or one of the other liberals passes away I wonder if Kennedy would announce his retirement because with another conservative justice being appointed to the court he would no longer be the powerful swing vote to direct decisions the way he would like them to go.

Sounds to me like she's unfit to be a justice. She needs to be impeached ASAP. If the media applied the same level of medical scrutiny to her as they do to Trump they'd be calling for her ousting. Imagine if Trump suffered a similar diabetic episode...

Drivedabizness 01-23-2018 1:31 PM

Don't get me wrong - i want her gone as bad as anyone but impeachment is for high crimes and misdemeanors - not for health.

She gets to decide if she can fulfill her job or not. At least until they amend COTUS (e.g. like 25A for Presidential infirmity)

bruss01 01-23-2018 1:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mickri (Post 21186710)
Saw an article over the weekend about Sotomayor and how she had a close call on Friday morning. Paramedics were called to her home. Sotomayor's blood sugar level is tightly controlled according to the article and if it gets too low she only has about 15 minutes to get it corrected. What I found most interesting was how the article went into great detail about how all of her staff and clerks receive training on how to spot when her blood sugar is falling and what to do. The article then went on and on about how she is just fine and back to work. Sounds to me that at any given time Sotomayor is only 15 minutes away from cashing it in.
If she or one of the other liberals passes away I wonder if Kennedy would announce his retirement because with another conservative justice being appointed to the court he would no longer be the powerful swing vote to direct decisions the way he would like them to go.

It's really unlikely to curl up and die from hypoglycemia.

Sure, it's possible, and people do - but most of the time those are from either secondary causes (passing out while driving) or collapsing unobserved and not receiving attention for considerable time.

It's generally not debilitating and is pretty easy to manage. I worked with a guy who had it, and he said if he was found passed out, give him some regular soda and call the ambulance. In 5 years of working with the guy it never came to that.

jrw1911 01-23-2018 1:58 PM

Another question is, will Justice Thomas retire before the next election and give Trump a chance to nominate a young conservative. Thomas will be 72 in a few years.

Drivedabizness 01-23-2018 4:50 PM

I hope not! He's solid!


All times are GMT -8. The time now is 2:12 PM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.