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AJAX22
11-14-2007, 9:10 AM
Does anyone have current data for the international rate of gun ownership broken down by number of gun owners / total population?

I can't find anything more current that 1999 and I need it for a debate.

Have any of you come across current number? most important are the top ten gun owning nations.

tombinghamthegreat
11-14-2007, 9:48 AM
You can go to Wikipedia and look up gun politics and they have them per country. Israel may be the last pro gun country left. Swisterland was but they recently banned all ammo in homes.

Can'thavenuthingood
11-14-2007, 9:52 AM
Might try this site, Social Science Research http://www.ssrn.com/ , the paper linked below, I've seen refs up to 2005.

Its a 64 page review of international evidence with many tables.
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=998893

Vick

DedEye
11-14-2007, 9:56 AM
You can go to Wikipedia and look up gun politics and they have them per country. Israel may be the last pro gun country left. Swisterland was but they recently banned all ammo in homes.

Israel isn't that pro-gun. The US is way more pro-gun than Israel.

tombinghamthegreat
11-14-2007, 10:01 AM
Israel isn't that pro-gun. The US is way more pro-gun than Israel.

I was comparing Israel more to countries like the UK and Russia.

Librarian
11-14-2007, 10:15 AM
You can go to Wikipedia and look up gun politics and they have them per country. Israel may be the last pro gun country left. Swisterland was but they recently banned all ammo in homes.

If a topic is the least bit controversial - and guns and gun control are hardly 'least' - Wikipedia is the last place to look.

Historical events more than 20 years ago and straight technical articles are usually not bad, and the links in the articles are sometimes pretty good.

As to Switzerland and ammunition, it's just the 50 rounds of issued ammunition for the issued Army rifles which will no longer be stored in homes. This article (http://www.swissinfo.org/eng/top_news/detail/Army_rifle_used_in_Islamic_centre_shooting.html?si teSect=106&sid=8414865&cKey=1194954685000&ty=st): In October, parliament approved a proposal to ban the long-standing Swiss tradition of keeping army ammunition at home.

With the exception of a few thousand of the 120,000 soldiers in Switzerland's militia army who keep their cartridges at home, all army ammunition will have to be stored in central arsenals. Army guns will still be kept at home.Ammunition for those Stg90 (http://www.swissrifles.com/sig550/index.html)'s is commonly available at gun stores.

Still, Switzerland is trending negatively, IMO.

Going back to the original topic, AJAX22, why do you think international comparisons are valid? Starting with the dated The Samurai, the Mountie and the Cowboy (Kopel, 1992), I think it's pretty well established that cross national comparisons are very difficult due to very different definitions of crimes, different statistical methods and data collection methods used by reporting governments, and frankly politically motivated data massaging.

Gator Monroe
11-14-2007, 10:16 AM
THE TINY JEWISH STATE HAS LIKE 5 MILLION PEOPLE (or less) and 7 million guns ...:eek:

Gator Monroe
11-14-2007, 10:17 AM
The USA edges out Pakistan for #1 ?:sleeping:

AJAX22
11-14-2007, 10:34 AM
Going back to the original topic, AJAX22, why do you think international comparisons are valid? Starting with the dated The Samurai, the Mountie and the Cowboy (Kopel, 1992), I think it's pretty well established that cross national comparisons are very difficult due to very different definitions of crimes, different statistical methods and data collection methods used by reporting governments, and frankly politically motivated data massaging.

The debate will most likely involve guns as it pertains to multinational trade unions and regulation through non state entities. having a better understanding of the current gun ownership rates could be key in de-railing what I see as one possible argument that may be raised.

Librarian
11-14-2007, 12:25 PM
OK. Crime data, subject to my cautions, is available from the UN here (http://www.unodc.org/unodc/en/crime_cicp_survey_eighth.html). That's 2001-2002 data, the most recent the UN cares to publish. 9th survey has only aggregate crime, not even broken out by offenses.

Might have to chunk through the individual links (http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/ijs.htm) to countries that Bureau of Justice Statistics has, to get gun ownership - if they have it. The Kates-Mauser paper already listed seems to have the most recent data for Europe (Table 1) and Eastern Europe (former SSRs, mostly, Table 3). They map murder to gun ownership rates in those tables. They mention the date of the murder data and the gun ownership data is a blend of surveys, but some is as old as 1997 if I read their notes (footnote 138-140, text page numbered 689, page 41 in my PDF copy.) correctly.

There's also Small Arms Survey in Geneva - see this page (http://www.smallarmssurvey.org/files/portal/issueareas/inventories/civinventor.html) for some other countries, and they have the top-30 in one of their pubs you can download (http://www.smallarmssurvey.org/files/sas/publications/year_b_pdf/2007/CH2%20Stockpiles.pdf) - Table 2.3 The 30 largest civilian firearm holdings (in descending order)
Country Total civilian guns Population guns/100 people
1 United States 270,000,000 300,000,000 97
2 India 46,000,000 1,064,000,000 5.6
3 China 40,000,000 1,288,400,000 3.9
4 Germany 25,000,000 82,551,000 36
5 France 19,000,000 59,725,000 34
6 Pakistan 18,000,000 148,400,000 12
7 Mexico 15,500,000 102,291,000 15
8 Brazil 15,300,000 174,471,000 8.8
9 Russia 12,750,000 143,425,000 13
10 Yemen 11,500,000 19,000,000 90
11 Thailand 10,000,000 62,000,000 16.1
12 Canada 9,950,000 31,600,000 38
13 Iraq 9,750,000 25,000,000 50
14 Turkey 9,000,000 71,000,000 16
15 Italy 7,000,000 57,646,000 17.3
16 Saudi Arabia 6,000,000 23,000,000 33
17 South Africa 5,950,000 45,300,000 17
18 Argentina 4,850,000 38,377,000 14.6
19 Spain 4,500,000 41,101,000 11
20 Philippines 3,900,000 81,500,000 6.1
21 Iran 3,500,000 66,000,000 5.3
22 Switzerland 3,400,000 7,344,000 61
22 England/Wales 3,400,000 60,400,000 7.8
24 Ukraine 3,100,000 48,356,000 13
25 Colombia 3,100,000 42,954,279 9.1
26 Australia 3,050,000 19,900,000 16
27 Serbia 3,050,000 8,104,000 49
28 Finland 2,900,000 5,210,000 69
29 Sweden 2,800,000 8,956,000 40
30 Angola 2,800,000 13,500,000 30
I guess more to the point is the per-capita estimates:
Country Total civilian guns Population guns/100 people
1 United States 270,000,000 300,000,000 97
10 Yemen 11,500,000 19,000,000 90
28 Finland 2,900,000 5,210,000 69
22 Switzerland 3,400,000 7,344,000 61
13 Iraq 9,750,000 25,000,000 50
27 Serbia 3,050,000 8,104,000 49
29 Sweden 2,800,000 8,956,000 40
12 Canada 9,950,000 31,600,000 38
4 Germany 25,000,000 82,551,000 36
5 France 19,000,000 59,725,000 34
16 Saudi Arabia 6,000,000 23,000,000 33
30 Angola 2,800,000 13,500,000 30
15 Italy 7,000,000 57,646,000 17.3
17 South Africa 5,950,000 45,300,000 17
11 Thailand 10,000,000 62,000,000 16.1
14 Turkey 9,000,000 71,000,000 16
26 Australia 3,050,000 19,900,000 16
7 Mexico 15,500,000 102,291,000 15
18 Argentina 4,850,000 38,377,000 14.6
9 Russia 12,750,000 143,425,000 13
24 Ukraine 3,100,000 48,356,000 13
6 Pakistan 18,000,000 148,400,000 12
19 Spain 4,500,000 41,101,000 11
25 Colombia 3,100,000 42,954,279 9.1
8 Brazil 15,300,000 174,471,000 8.8
22 England/Wales 3,400,000 60,400,000 7.8
20 Philippines 3,900,000 81,500,000 6.1
2 India 46,000,000 1,064,000,000 5.6
21 Iran 3,500,000 66,000,000 5.3
3 China 40,000,000 1,288,400,000 3.9

Can'thavenuthingood
11-14-2007, 12:35 PM
Pro-gun groups from USA, Canada, Belgium, Brazil, Australia, South Africa etc have formed a transnational advocacy network, the opposition to IANSA.
World Forum on the Future of Sport Shooting (WFSA)
http://www.wfsa.net/

I'd suspect they would have an accurate breakdown of what you are looking to discover.

Vick

AJAX22
12-15-2008, 1:57 PM
Just for the record, the U.S. has more firearms in private hands than all of the armed services in the world combined.

Thought that was a neat statistic.

AaronHorrocks
12-15-2008, 2:14 PM
Just for the record, the U.S. has more firearms in private hands than all of the armed services in the world combined.

Thought that was a neat statistic.

Sure, but how can semi-automatic firearms in private hands compare to all the full-automatic firearms in the armed service around the world combined?

AJAX22
12-15-2008, 2:20 PM
Sure, but how can semi-automatic firearms in private hands compare to all the full-automatic firearms in the armed service around the world combined?

quite well

FA is not the be-all-end-all

Sig226
12-15-2008, 2:31 PM
quite well

FA is not the be-all-end-all

+1

1 hit is better than a drum full of misses. ;)

shooterdave
12-15-2008, 4:20 PM
FA is only good for supression and keeping the enemy's head down. it's useless for most other tasks. when i went for qualification in oct i got to use the 3 shot burst on the m16a2 and i couldn't hit anything not even the 25yrd popup. i would rather face an enemy with FA and who use spray and pray tactics than an enemy that uses only semi but are good riflemen.

Gator Monroe
12-15-2008, 4:38 PM
Our Civil Unrest/war will be short & sweeeeeeet :):chris:

AKman
12-15-2008, 4:51 PM
OK. Crime data, subject to my cautions, is available from the UN here (http://www.unodc.org/unodc/en/crime_cicp_survey_eighth.html). That's 2001-2002 data, the most recent the UN cares to publish. 9th survey has only aggregate crime, not even broken out by offenses.

Might have to chunk through the individual links (http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/ijs.htm) to countries that Bureau of Justice Statistics has, to get gun ownership - if they have it. The Kates-Mauser paper already listed seems to have the most recent data for Europe (Table 1) and Eastern Europe (former SSRs, mostly, Table 3). They map murder to gun ownership rates in those tables. They mention the date of the murder data and the gun ownership data is a blend of surveys, but some is as old as 1997 if I read their notes (footnote 138-140, text page numbered 689, page 41 in my PDF copy.) correctly.

There's also Small Arms Survey in Geneva - see this page (http://www.smallarmssurvey.org/files/portal/issueareas/inventories/civinventor.html) for some other countries, and they have the top-30 in one of their pubs you can download (http://www.smallarmssurvey.org/files/sas/publications/year_b_pdf/2007/CH2%20Stockpiles.pdf) - Table 2.3 The 30 largest civilian firearm holdings (in descending order)
Country Total civilian guns Population guns/100 people
1 United States 270,000,000 300,000,000 97
2 India 46,000,000 1,064,000,000 5.6
3 China 40,000,000 1,288,400,000 3.9
4 Germany 25,000,000 82,551,000 36
5 France 19,000,000 59,725,000 34
6 Pakistan 18,000,000 148,400,000 12
7 Mexico 15,500,000 102,291,000 15
8 Brazil 15,300,000 174,471,000 8.8
9 Russia 12,750,000 143,425,000 13
10 Yemen 11,500,000 19,000,000 90
11 Thailand 10,000,000 62,000,000 16.1
12 Canada 9,950,000 31,600,000 38
13 Iraq 9,750,000 25,000,000 50
14 Turkey 9,000,000 71,000,000 16
15 Italy 7,000,000 57,646,000 17.3
16 Saudi Arabia 6,000,000 23,000,000 33
17 South Africa 5,950,000 45,300,000 17
18 Argentina 4,850,000 38,377,000 14.6
19 Spain 4,500,000 41,101,000 11
20 Philippines 3,900,000 81,500,000 6.1
21 Iran 3,500,000 66,000,000 5.3
22 Switzerland 3,400,000 7,344,000 61
22 England/Wales 3,400,000 60,400,000 7.8
24 Ukraine 3,100,000 48,356,000 13
25 Colombia 3,100,000 42,954,279 9.1
26 Australia 3,050,000 19,900,000 16
27 Serbia 3,050,000 8,104,000 49
28 Finland 2,900,000 5,210,000 69
29 Sweden 2,800,000 8,956,000 40
30 Angola 2,800,000 13,500,000 30
I guess more to the point is the per-capita estimates:
Country Total civilian guns Population guns/100 people
1 United States 270,000,000 300,000,000 97
10 Yemen 11,500,000 19,000,000 90
28 Finland 2,900,000 5,210,000 69
22 Switzerland 3,400,000 7,344,000 61
13 Iraq 9,750,000 25,000,000 50
27 Serbia 3,050,000 8,104,000 49
29 Sweden 2,800,000 8,956,000 40
12 Canada 9,950,000 31,600,000 38
4 Germany 25,000,000 82,551,000 36
5 France 19,000,000 59,725,000 34
16 Saudi Arabia 6,000,000 23,000,000 33
30 Angola 2,800,000 13,500,000 30
15 Italy 7,000,000 57,646,000 17.3
17 South Africa 5,950,000 45,300,000 17
11 Thailand 10,000,000 62,000,000 16.1
14 Turkey 9,000,000 71,000,000 16
26 Australia 3,050,000 19,900,000 16
7 Mexico 15,500,000 102,291,000 15
18 Argentina 4,850,000 38,377,000 14.6
9 Russia 12,750,000 143,425,000 13
24 Ukraine 3,100,000 48,356,000 13
6 Pakistan 18,000,000 148,400,000 12
19 Spain 4,500,000 41,101,000 11
25 Colombia 3,100,000 42,954,279 9.1
8 Brazil 15,300,000 174,471,000 8.8
22 England/Wales 3,400,000 60,400,000 7.8
20 Philippines 3,900,000 81,500,000 6.1
2 India 46,000,000 1,064,000,000 5.6
21 Iran 3,500,000 66,000,000 5.3
3 China 40,000,000 1,288,400,000 3.9


Someone needs to check the UN's math. Maybe this explains their climate change modeling as well.

bigstick61
12-15-2008, 5:22 PM
Some of those statistics seem difficult to believe, such as the amount of civilian guns in China, or does that include the Republic of China, which the UN does not recognize?

AJAX22
12-15-2008, 6:55 PM
Some of those statistics seem difficult to believe, such as the amount of civilian guns in China, or does that include the Republic of China, which the UN does not recognize?

40 million in a country of a billion is almost nothing.

The us estimate is low as well, most put it at 295 million + (I strongly suspect it to be higher than that if you take into account homemade and black market guns)

Librarian
12-15-2008, 8:20 PM
40 million in a country of a billion is almost nothing.

The us estimate is low as well, most put it at 295 million + (I strongly suspect it to be higher than that if you take into account homemade and black market guns)

When the US had ~295 million population (2005), the trend line (Excel's guess) from BATF guesses/data suggested nearly that many guns in non-military hands.

IIRC, the rate of gun number growth has slowed some since then, so the guns-per-person number is probably a bit less than the almost 1-1 it was then.

http://i275.photobucket.com/albums/jj284/Librarian_bucket/gunstock.jpg

AJAX22
06-21-2009, 6:38 PM
When the US had ~295 million population (2005), the trend line (Excel's guess) from BATF guesses/data suggested nearly that many guns in non-military hands.

IIRC, the rate of gun number growth has slowed some since then, so the guns-per-person number is probably a bit less than the almost 1-1 it was then.

http://i275.photobucket.com/albums/jj284/Librarian_bucket/gunstock.jpg

Any revised data with the new numbers from this year and the end of last year?

7x57
06-21-2009, 6:52 PM
IIRC, the rate of gun number growth has slowed some since then, so the guns-per-person number is probably a bit less than the almost 1-1 it was then.

http://i275.photobucket.com/albums/jj284/Librarian_bucket/gunstock.jpg

I'm concerned that that argument appears to depend on a polynomial extrapolation beyond the data. As I'm sure you know, extrapolation is to interpolation somewhat as astrology is to astronomy. :p

The polynomials don't seem to have factored in the Obama effect, either. :43:

7x57

7x57
06-21-2009, 6:52 PM
Doesn't Howard Nemerov do a good job of collecting up these kinds of statistics from governmental sources that aren't connected with gun-rights groups?

7x57

AJAX22
06-21-2009, 6:55 PM
I'm concerned that that argument appears to depend on a polynomial extrapolation beyond the data. As I'm sure you know, extrapolation is to interpolation somewhat as astrology is to astronomy. :p

The polynomials don't seem to have factored in the Obama effect, either. :43:

7x57

this is based on 2005 data (blue squares)....

I think things may have shifted upwards radically since then...

Librarian
06-21-2009, 8:30 PM
I'm concerned that that argument appears to depend on a polynomial extrapolation beyond the data. As I'm sure you know, extrapolation is to interpolation somewhat as astrology is to astronomy. :p

The polynomials don't seem to have factored in the Obama effect, either. :43:

7x57

All true.

I don't know when 2008-2009 sales figures will be available. Probably 2010 or 2011 - there's a serious lag in that reporting, so far as I can determine.

I think the trend is still towards 1 gun, 1 person, but we know for certain that the distribution is not that even.

7x57
06-21-2009, 9:08 PM
All true.

I don't know when 2008-2009 sales figures will be available. Probably 2010 or 2011 - there's a serious lag in that reporting, so far as I can determine.


I'd like them in time to wave under the noses of every candidate in the 2010 election, thanks please. :D


I think the trend is still towards 1 gun, 1 person, but we know for certain that the distribution is not that even.

The statistic I have decided I care about is related to Yamamoto's (alleged?) statement that if you invaded America there would be a rifle behind every blade of grass. I want to push for two. How are we doing in terms of guns/blade? :D

A bit more seriously, I think one of the biggest prospects for breaking that barrier has to do with CCW. Some 80% of the country may have shall-issue, but it isn't even 50% of the population. CCW is what seems to make bearing arms feasible for urbanites, and the nuts left to crack are generally the most anti-gun places in the first place. So cracking those strongholds ought to create significant new demand....

7x57

Manic Moran
06-21-2009, 10:08 PM
Odd. I was under the impression that the US was third in per-capita numbers, after Yemen and Finland.

I wonder if it's not an issue of the US being behind in 'percentage of people who own guns,' given how many gun collectors in the US have multiple firearms, vs more usually only two or three in Europe.

NTM

7x57
06-21-2009, 10:20 PM
I wonder if it's not an issue of the US being behind in 'percentage of people who own guns,' given how many gun collectors in the US have multiple firearms, vs more usually only two or three in Europe.


Good point. I used to wonder why the Europeans made a lot of these funky multi-barrel guns--drillings are surely too heavy to do any job really well, for example, but it seemed exotic and cool. Eventually I found out the reason is a lot of countries have severe limits on numbers of guns or a point system that counts a combination gun as less than two or three individual arms.

Then I felt good, because clearly the reason I wasn't familiar with them is that we still have the Right Gun for the Right Job and don't have to have wacky Swiss-army-knife compromises. Their gun market is twisted beyond recognition artificially. :D

So given that, I imagine you're right that there must be a lower average number of guns per owner in Europe generally.

7x57

nick
06-21-2009, 11:40 PM
Would be interesting to see the stats on number of gun owners, not just guns, in those countries.

Last I checked, France had about 4 million. The US... I've seen anything from 40 to 90 million, would love to know the reality.

Librarian
06-22-2009, 12:05 AM
Would be interesting to see the stats on number of gun owners, not just guns, in those countries.

Last I checked, France had about 4 million. The US... I've seen anything from 40 to 90 million, would love to know the reality.
Lots of people would like to know - but it isn't happening.

The current number is 'about 35% of households', with no information on individuals.

Consider the current political climate: if someone were to call you on the phone and ask 'do you own any guns?', are you likely to answer 'yes'?

If you knew the caller were a government employee of some kind, would you be more or less likely to answer?

nick
06-22-2009, 12:18 AM
Lots of people would like to know - but it isn't happening.

The current number is 'about 35% of households', with no information on individuals.

Consider the current political climate: if someone were to call you on the phone and ask 'do you own any guns?', are you likely to answer 'yes'?

If you knew the caller were a government employee of some kind, would you be more or less likely to answer?

They should ask this question in the Census :43:

Suvorov
06-22-2009, 4:19 AM
What is getting mixed up here or just not discussed is how many of those guns are legally owned (as far as national law and not natural law is concerned).

Take Serbia for example, while I have no doubt the statistics are at least fairly accurate anyone caught with a firearm and without a permit to own it is subject to harsh penalties. Of course such permits are difficult for the average person to obtain so what we end up with is so typical of socialist countries where the police and criminals are free to do whatever they want and the honest citizen can not.

So despite the "high number" of guns ownership in Serbia, you do not see gun stores nor do you see shooting ranges. In my travels there the only civilian firearms I have come in contact with are my Father in Laws (former LEO) and an occasional hunter. With their courtship of the EU, I can only see things getting worse in this area.

I think Moran is right on target with American statistics. Americans have a collector or consumerist trend so while one gun is enough for Europeans (again, why own a bunch if you really can't go in public with it). Still, there is something heartwarming about the fact that there are now enough firearms in American civilian hands to arm each and every one of us should goblins attack and Martians invade.