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bruss01
12-04-2012, 5:33 PM
Thinking about taking my loosely organized mag on a bug-out rehearsal.

Here's the scenario:

A widespread and coordinated terrorist attack occurs. It is not immediately clear if the terrorism is foreign, domestic, or a false-flag.

Impact is huge in the state of CA, but minimal elsewhere. Most targets appear to have been CA state, Washington DC and New York City.

There was an emphasis on attacking infrastructure. Many power sub-stations were hit by IED's and high-powered rifle fire, taking transformers and transmission systems off-line. Many roadways were damaged by creating landslides or demolishing bridges. Airlines were hit, one aircraft was crashed into a nuclear plant out east.

The government and the citizenry are trying to cope as best they can. Terrorists were apparently using burner cell-phones to detonate IED's so the cell networks have been taken off-line indefinitely. It is believed that this swift and nationwide measure prevented far more devastating consequences affecting the entire conus - they are staying out. Power is out along most of the western US and major east-cost areas - no estimate on time to resolve. You believe it will be weeks, perhaps months. Water in many areas (due to power outages and resulting issues) has been out for 24-48 hours but is gradually being restored. Due to lack of pressure a boil order is in force. There is a dusk-dawn curfew nationwide. If you are seen on the streets after dark, you are assumed to be a looter or terrorist and you will be held without bond or charges pending resolution of the crisis and restoration of civil infrastructure.

Because bridges and canyonways were taken out, road travel out of state has become difficult, well-nigh impossible. Freeways and interstates are parking lots that make Katrina evac routes look like the Indy 500. Alternate routes are flooded with travelers trying to circumvent main routes, and are clogged with their broken down and empty-fueled vehicles. Air traffic is grounded as it was after 9-11. It's been a few days so people are basically sitting at home wondering what to do. With the power out and cell networks offline, information is very slow in traveling and people are starting to freak a little. You can tell it won't be much longer before chaos starts erupting from just people trying to survive.

Your group has access to a limited supply of power (solar plus batteries) and has used ham radio to assess the situation. You have determined that the crisis is primarily local within the state of CA and some regional areas outside CA. You have managed to make contact with a fellow ham across town who has told you some interesting facts from his AO - he is near a local train station and the trains appear to still be running. What's more, he tells you that the train station appears to have generator power from 9 am to 9 pm daily.

You huddle up your group and assess the situation. You determine that you all have friends/family outside the affected areas who would welcome you with open arms, who are reachable by train. Because of this, you determine the best course of action is to evac the area via train and GTFO until the crisis is resolved.

It's now 5 pm and you decide not to delay a day, but immediately load up and roll (vehicle) to the train station. Every day you delay is one more day for that window of opportunity to close.

Due to several detours you had to take to avoid issues (urban chaos, roadblocks, etc) it is getting dark while you are en route. You are running lights-out to avoid drawing law enforcement attention, because getting police attention while violating curfew would be very bad. Unfortunately you come across an area where locals have set up tire-disablement for passing vehicles. This may be to prevent refugees, or to stall out vehicles and rob the occupants. Regardless, your vehicle(s) are disabled with multiple flats/tire-shredding. You will have to proceed to the train station on foot. It is about 4-5 miles across a basically urban landscape, after dark, with no power.

At the train station, the doors are open until 9 pm when the last train leaves. Anyone present is welcome to stay the night, but the doors are locked for the night for security. There is generator power until 9 pm and there is running water but it is not drinkable due to the boil order, and - from when the water was out 24-48 hours - the toilet is filled/clogged with excrement and unsuable. All paper products in the restrooms have been exhausted by previous refugees. You also hear that, similar to Katrina refugees, many train stations are not permitting refugees to disembark in their location, fearing looters or a "burden" on their systems.

There is the basic scenario.

Please, if you care to comment, identify your comments as falling into one of two areas: First - bring up anything obvious that has been overlooked in creating the general scenario that has not already been called out. Second - How would you set this up as an actual, worthwhile drill that would have training merit for the group? Keep in mind that legalities must be minded and while the drill should be realistic enough to create a bit of discomfort and challenge, nobody will want to participate in a drill that is downright dangerous or hugely unpleasant.

The object is to get people to think about their gear and their physical/mental preparation for a potential scenario. What will they experience on this drill, that might not have occured to them sitting at home, lights blazing, in front of their computer, smugly taking satisfaction in their 72 hour kit?

Things to keep in mind for the scenario:

This is not Mad Max. The civil authority will come back. You will be held responsible for misdeeds.

There is very limited infrastructure in place. Most businesses are closed. The curfew ensures that you do not want LEO contact of any kind after dark.

You have common, everyday tools at your disposal and reasonably well equipped BOB's. Two of your party have CCW permits.

Weapons of any kind are not permitted in the train station. However, they are shorthanded and are not doing pat-down checks of individuals entering, nor bothering to search bags. It is simply posted. If they find a weapon, they will confiscate it and eject the bearer from the station.

It is now 6 pm and totally dark outside. You have 3 hours for your group to traverse the 4-5 miles to the station before closing/lights-out. The station is your only plausible refuge overnight to wait for the first train out in the morning.

Discuss.

bruss01
12-04-2012, 5:50 PM
Follow up:

Here's what I would like to accomplish:

Instill a respect for noise/light discipline. Minimize noise & light signatures to avoid curfew evasion detection and night-blindness. That means secure gear so it s not clattering, banging, rustling. Keep flashlight/headlamp to absolute minimums, using red light where ever possible.

Simulate the group being "attacked" en route. Assume the group wins. You will need to huddle up a bit while the medic attends to wounded members. Some clothing or gear becomes muddied or bloodied. No matter how you started out from your bug-in location, you will look like refugees after the attack. How will you avoid being turned away from somewhere you need to go because you look like a refugee now, rather than simply a traveler?

Security: You obviously can't walk down the street with an AR-15 over your shoulder, or a loaded pistol hanging on your belt, and you sure as shootin' won't get into the train station that way. Your security plan?

Again - the train station is "safe" from those outside, but you really cannot trust the other "travelers" locked inside for the night with your group. You must have a plan to ensure group security that does not involve open displays of weaponry or else you will get ejected from the station and miss your chance at a ride the next morning.

Assume there will be non-aggressive threats. Such as the crazy old codger with a double-barrel shotgun who won't let anyone walk down his side of the street. Also there may be pockets of urban chaos the group has to deviate around. How will you handle this? There may also be active threats... those who spot your group and decide you have gear they need. How to avoid and countermeasure?

In practical terms, we will need a suitable landscape to traverse and an austere facillity of some kind in which to spend the night. This could be a store-room, an office, a warehouse or storage site of some kind. Water must be available and it would be good if there were a restroom for emergencies (but the group would be instructed the toilet is off-limits for the exercise unless there is a true emergency).

stitch_paradox
12-04-2012, 5:56 PM
Too many words... 'don't wanna read a novel. Can you just sum up what you are asking for?

bruss01
12-04-2012, 6:17 PM
Too many words... 'don't wanna read a novel. Can you just sum up what you are asking for?

What I'm asking for is well-thought out comments about a very specific scenario, and comments on suggestions for a well-considered, real-life drill mimicking that scenario.

This is not a one-liner.

Sorry if that's too much for you to deal with. I'm sure others will be along with enough depth and interest to sustain them through the "book".

Putting it simply: If you were in the situation above... what would you experience that hasn't been explicitly called out? And if you were going to organize a drill for your mag to mimic this situation, how would you go about making it both a reasonable facsimile and at the same time, do-able for the group?

The core of the idea being: Bug out on foot across urban landscape as a group of 5-8 people after dark with curfew, obstacles and other practical considerations. Overnight stay in train station awaiting first ride out in AM. Point of the drill is to mimic this scenario.

Example of a FAIL: Guy says "I've got six guns and 500 rounds of ammo baby! I'm ready for anything!" Uh, no, he's not. First of all, openly toting, you're likely to meet resistance. Second, you won't get in the door at the train station that way. If you don't have a scout/point 100 yards or more ahead, you won't know when you're walking into danger. You get spotted by locals in their neighborhood, they assume you're a looter and open fire. After he gets attacked, he's got no medical dressing or spare change of clothes to enable him to look like a traveler rather than a refugee. And without a group, how's he going to stay safe in the train station overnight? He isn't... he'll nod off about 3 am and get hoodwinked/ransacked for his gear. He's really not ready for much of anything... is he? How would our group do better? What could they be put through in a drill that would make them think of these things?

speedrrracer
12-04-2012, 6:22 PM
Proposed scenario has major logical flaws.

It was already dark, and we're going to Gitmo when they catch us. Train stations typically have police presence, and after the SHTF they will absolutely have mil / LEO presence, so even if we make it, since it's already dark, we're going to Gitmo.

Who's in charge of this group? Bozo the Clown? I take my AR and kill Bozo. I then tell everyone else to come to my place, and we'll drink all the beer before it gets room temp.

PS - I like the thought exercise, but I think it needs cleanup...

bruss01
12-04-2012, 7:15 PM
Proposed scenario has major logical flaws.

It was already dark, and we're going to Gitmo when they catch us. Train stations typically have police presence, and after the SHTF they will absolutely have mil / LEO presence, so even if we make it, since it's already dark, we're going to Gitmo.

Who's in charge of this group? Bozo the Clown? I take my AR and kill Bozo. I then tell everyone else to come to my place, and we'll drink all the beer before it gets room temp.

PS - I like the thought exercise, but I think it needs cleanup...

All right.... maybe that's a fair call. It would be understandable that there be security of some sort at the station. I'd assume for the sake of keeping our sceario afloat that the NG has rolled out to protect infrastructure (water plant, hospital, dam, train station etc) and they are less concernned about the curfew than they are with keeping the station working. It is they who have provided the generator and fuel for the station, for example. They are leaving curfew eforcemtnt to the local PD, not really hasseling everyday folks about it as long as they are behaving orderly and not presenting any overt threat profile. Let's say for sake of argument your ham radio buddy has provided this intel.

Your explanation is that your vehicle was disabled en-route and you were caught outdoors after dark. Completely plausible and completely true. You are trying to comply with the curfew by getting indoors ASAP and hence are headed for the train station as a refuge point.

Maybe you need to sweet-talk, befriend or buy-off their good will the way some Katria hold-outs did? Just a thought. One guy I heard of smoothed his way in/out of the DZ for weeks by offering cold sodas to the sweat drenched NG's.

Good call out, though.

KevinB
12-04-2012, 7:28 PM
Flawed scenario, You said the civil authorities will return. Just sit tight, little risk.

Last thing I would ever give credence to would be someone else on the other side of a radio I have never met.

bruss01
12-04-2012, 9:01 PM
Flawed scenario, You said the civil authorities will return. Just sit tight, little risk.

Last thing I would ever give credence to would be someone else on the other side of a radio I have never met.

"sit tight" can be excellent advice, depending on the scenario.

And if civil authority and infrastructure were coming back in a few days, even a few weeks, it's probably a good plan.

But if the damage is extensive enough that you're convinced it will be months before you have reliable power and civil order again? That seems like a very long time to risk a medical emergency or a fire that sweeps across a whole section of town. Not to mention the non-preppers will quickly become predatory and an aggressive and ongoing threat.

If the option is to spend one day a little more exposed with a good shot at getting out into a state of normalcy to rebuild your life... I can see that being a very attractive option.

I hear you about "some guy" on the radio, but the ham community is reasonably small and tend to know each other at least casually. They function as part of the emergency communication network - as they did in Sandy and in Katrina. I've only recently acquired my ham but I can tell you it's a tight knit group who make every effort to help each other and the public. that's a little different than some yahoo on his CB blabbing away.

fishandhunt4ever
12-04-2012, 9:21 PM
For that situation sitting tight would be the best option.

Leaving that close to night would be dangerous especially if all in party are not going to be armed. Also, a vehicle driving with no lights at night will draw more attention at night, than a vehicle with lights on at night.

LEO/MIL at the train station would be the least of worries. The worries would be the people who have been stranded inside the train station for x amount of time, and of course the people that are angry outside the train station.

Best way to get out of town (my route) we will be the riverbeds.

stix213
12-05-2012, 1:43 AM
I disagree with the entire plan, though I appreciate your imaginitive thought exercise.

If the train station were the only way out of the affected area, expect it to be completely packed with desperate people. You're not going to arrive and be at the front of the line. You'll be arriving at a potentially dangerous situation in and of itself. You're unlikely to be able to bring your firearms on the train in a ready to go fashion, nor will likely be able to bring much of the rest of your gear. You'll be more refugee than prepared individual even if you successfully complete the train evacuation.

Furthermore, moving by vehicle presents it's own additional and possibly unnecessary risks (as evidenced within your own scenario where your vehicles are actually disabled).

I'd also vote for staying put with your group as the first option. Your home should have more food and water, plus other supplies (plus a roof) than if you try to load what you can in vehicles. You're abandoning precious supplies if you choose to leave. Arm up but keep a low profile and I think your chances are better.

As a 2nd option I'd say to head for the woods with backpacking style gear and as much food as your group can carry. Hide your vehicles the best you can, head off trail. Catch food when the opportunity presents itself to extend your supply. Listen to am/fm radio for updates on the emergency response, head back when things sound like they have calmed down. If I were to do this I already know exactly where I would be going. Last time I was there I didn't see another person the entire week I was out there, so I doubt it will get too crowded.

bruss01
12-05-2012, 7:08 AM
Appreciate all the good comments so far.

Point of clarification though...

The point of constructing the scenario is to provide contextual backdrop for the actual exercise - which is an urban bug-out at night requiring skills such as traveling as a group with a minimal noise/light footprint and overnight stay in austere accommodations.

While I appreciate that some may feel that some aspects of the proposed scenario are not compatible with the exercise, (if you want to address that) I need to point out that where those incompatibilities exist the object here is to tweak the scenario to fit the exercise (mostly) and not vice versa.

The point is to have an actual PHYSICAL training exercise involving group foot travel. Bugging in does not fit that exercise. I apologize if I failed to adequately make this point earlier.

Carry on.

speedrrracer
12-05-2012, 10:13 AM
So you're going to take your peeps on a 4-5 mile hike in the dark.

Presumably you'll exhibit sufficient intellectual honesty to avoid walking on paved surfaces as much as possible, since that's where the chaos / looting / gangs / LEOs-taking-you-to-Gitmo / etc will all be hanging out.

It's a 2.5 hour walk. Noise and light discipline. Watch where you throw shadows. Need a few hand signals and a couple other comms tweaks. Maybe a coupla sprained ankles from unseen rocks and rabbit holes. Move from cover to cover and practicing the urban tricks. Otherwise, no big deal. The BOBs will have (or should have!) anything they need.

If they know the area well enough, shouldn't be much more than a walk. If they don't know the area, then maybe it becomes a crap-show, hopping fences, getting lost, etc.

Oh yeah, small logic flaw: Locals would not set up tire-disablement for passing vehicles if, as stated, a goal was to prevent refugees. If you want the cars to stop here, then you set up tire-disablement here. If you want the cars to keep going elsewhere, you block / destroy the entire street or keep it clean. Just a small point.

IRL, you would wear weapons. You would not go out into life-threatening chaos unarmed, at least, I can't imagine ever making such a decision. If you're caught by LEO you're going to Gitmo anyways, so a CCW violation (for the non-CCW guys) is insignificant. Make the trainees wear pieces of wood or something not-really-gun-shaped in concealment, just for the training, but nothing that could even throw a gun-like silhouette.

FeuerFrei
12-05-2012, 10:25 AM
Developing a training exercise in an urban environment needs to be kept to a very simple and basic standard. Getting out together and safely.
Discipline is everything when traveling in a group. Communication is key. Electronic, visible and auditory signals need to be developed before hand.
Predetermined way-points need to be scouted and identified along with alternates. Food/water/rest stops if you will.
Group needs to be able to split and reconstitute as needed. Leaders to be developed or identified.
Urban camouflage might require the need to be "hobo" looking, dirty worn clothing etc.. No flashy gear visible.
Once your scenario is developed you can schedule a training exercise and let people make mistakes and self correct on the fly.
** I would not depend on any govt run transportation. Amcrash or Barf or ???
Keeping it simple.

KevinB
12-05-2012, 10:28 AM
Lets address your bug out exercise. If you took every train in the LA basin with every available car you would not be able to begin to move even a fraction of 1 % of the people in demand.

Any security would be quickly overwhelmed and anarchy would break out. People showing up would be putting themselves at huge risk. The strong would prey on the weak.

Perhaps you should think about the 20 Million people that live there and consider the absolute poop storm that comes with trying to get that volume of people anywhere. Any option with that many people is not a good one.

Any major disaster in the LA basin where people are trying to leave ends in a complete disaster. There is not a good scenario.

kb58
12-05-2012, 10:36 AM
Wait, let's back up for a second.

Is this a novel you're writing and are asking for input on how to keep it real/believable?

Or is this your actual situation you see yourself in someday? If it's this, the best-laid plans go out the window due to so many variables and peoples' unpredictability. There's an saying that goes something like, "Everyone's got a plan, until the shooting starts."

The best advice you'll get will be generalized enough to handle moving through a wrecked city... all the other stuff you've added is like thowing a million grains of sand on the floor and asking for how to deal with that ONE situation. Your theoretical situation is so specific, it has zero chance of happening exactly the way you've laid out. Because of that, any exact advice for that one situation will be wrong.

the86d
12-05-2012, 11:12 AM
This is an excellent thread for when Google becomes self aware on 12-21-2012 we can know what to do... :)

Call boss, state the needed personal LOA of an unknown timeframe.
Hold the fort, all mags loaded (PC becomes n/a).
Break out the battery using devices (no, not the lady's, but yours that light-up). :)
Eat the stuff in the fridge, 1st.
Be happy that you (hopefully) don't live in a major Urban area, even for less pay.

berto
12-05-2012, 12:53 PM
Can you really make 4-5 miles in three hours in an urban environment while maintining light and sound discipline? Your scenario is possible but your chances of making it to the station are slim.

Think of people setting up alarms to warn them of intruders - cans on a string, dogs, Bubba up his roof with his night vision, etc.

How do you plan to evade the authorities enforcing the curfew? How do you deal with night vision, drones, etc? To think they won't be out looking for groups of people creeping about in the dark (you) is foolish. How does your scout communicate with your group w/o drawing attention?

If IEDs and rifles caused so many problems don't think for a second that you're getting on a train armed. Not gonna happen, especially as you've set rail as the only remaining tranist option.

As to running your drill you can replicate quiet and distance out in the woods. An urban environment requires you drill in an urban area. Good luck with that. Someone will call the cops.

Chaparral
12-05-2012, 12:59 PM
I'm in coastal LA. If I need to get through the urbanized area to the hills and then to points north, I would choose fat-tire mountain bikes with panniers and rack trunk. I'd still wear a lumbar pack. I'd head to the LA river, get down into the concrete channel and then head up to the area just east of DTLA for the train station. If the train was a no go, I could continue up past the Hollyweird Hills to the Sepulveda Basin. That puts me at the 405/101 area. From there It shoud be easier to find chaparral covered hillsides for a concealed place to get a good night's sleep and then work farther out from the urban areas. 20 miles a day fully loaded on a bicycle over flat terrain is no big deal for me....make it 40 to 50 miles and then perhaps you might hear some of my muscles complain.

If I wanted to get to points south, I'd get through the port area and downtown Long Beach by day and then take the coastal bike paths to the Santa Ana river and head up that as far as I could go to Seven Oaks Dam or maybe just the 91 or 10 fwys. That would get me to a point where Baldwin Lake, Forest Falls, Cuyamaca, Warner Springs, Idyllwild, Anza etc etc are more accessible. Anything past that and yer talking a deathmarch across the Mojave to the Colorado River.

bruss01
12-05-2012, 1:31 PM
Can you really make 4-5 miles in three hours in an urban environment while maintining light and sound discipline?

How do you plan to evade the authorities enforcing the curfew? How do you deal with night vision, drones, etc? To think they won't be out looking for groups of people creeping about in the dark (you) is foolish. How does your scout communicate with your group w/o drawing attention?

Some of these are good points but others I think should be obvious. There is a big difference between a bunch of people laughing, talking, rattling their gear all around making a bunch of noise... and people just walking quietly without talking, who have their gear quietly secured with no loose gear banging and flapping around. Your comment made me think you expecte "ninja quiet" rather than just not making enough noise to draw attention. I don't envision needing to tiptoe like you're sneaking up on a deer from behind... just keep the ruckus down - no loud talking, no gear banging around, no stomping, just quiet walking. Not really that hard, is it?

You avoid authorities by not not walking right into a checkpoint. By ducking behind a tree when you spot headlights. By not shooting your guns unless there is no absolutely no other option - which means fighting with hands or handheld weapons that do not make a lot of noise - knives, axe, baseball bat. I agree that everyone in the group should be armed... but not all of them need to be armed with FIREARMS if that poses challenges we'd rather not deal with. People were able to arm themselves before guns were invented. And it's perfectly legal to walk down the street with an unloaded gun in a soft case that is locked... such as a fanny pack or in a backpack. Pretty much everyone can have one of those. Yes, a little slower to bring into action. Those who are locked and loaded will need to buy the others some time to bring their arms into play... THAT is the kind of suggestion I was looking for, not "your scenario is whacked, man..."

Really, "night vision", "drones"? This isn't a war zone, it's a disaster area. The curfew is about keeping people home instead of going out looting and causing a ruckus. Aside from a few checkpoints on major arteries, the cops have their hands full. They are not going to be roaming around actively looking for curfew violators. But if they come across any, they'll take them out of circulation. You keep quiet and basically invisible, avoid known or spotted checkpoints by being observant, and stick to obscure side streets rather than the main drag.

If IEDs and rifles caused so many problems don't think for a second that you're getting on a train armed. Not gonna happen, especially as you've set rail as the only remaining tranist option.

There's no existing infrastructure to scan people getting onto trains such as exists at airports. Three to six months later, you might be right... they'd have time to install the equipment. But there's a window of opportunity, I believe, before they come fully up to speed. It'll still be chaotic enough to make it plausible. And worst case, you dump your firearms and proceed on the train with just your "tools" - knife, hatchet, pepper spray or baseball bat.

As to running your drill you can replicate quiet and distance out in the woods. An urban environment requires you drill in an urban area. Good luck with that. Someone will call the cops.

Wonder why someone would call the cops on a small group of people, peaceably and quietly walking down the street? Doesn't that happen every day? You must have either made some unwarranted assumptions, or you left something out of your explanation.

bruss01
12-05-2012, 1:48 PM
Wait, let's back up for a second.

Is this a novel you're writing and are asking for input on how to keep it real/believable?

Not sure if serious. I posted earlier that the scenario is backdrop for an actual physical exercise to take the group through that involves quiet walking at night through an urban area and overnight stay in an auster indoor location. Nothing more. I feel we are getting too bogged down in details of the scenario, when what I would prefer the focus on is the actual drill. Admittedly that involves a certain "suspension of disbelief" over some minor incongruities of the scenario.

I was hoping y'all could play along a bit and help get the group to go out and do a fun but challenging exercise. No, I'm not writing a book and trying to get you all to help me make it "more plausible" in order to woo some publisher.

... all the other stuff you've added is like thowing a million grains of sand on the floor and asking for how to deal with that ONE situation. Your theoretical situation is so specific, it has zero chance of happening exactly the way you've laid out. Because of that, any exact advice for that one situation will be wrong.

"all the other stuff" I added is just to support the exercise. I wanted to rule out things like "just stay put" or "call a cab" and a wanton disregard for security and getting noticed. I wanted to keep it CA legal and put some time constraints to keep the group moving and focused, working together. This is why I feel too much is being made of the specifics of the scenario. If you think a given aspect of the scenario isn't quite right... sure, bring it up, and suggest an alternate that makes some kind of sense (doesn't have to be ironclad) AS LONG AS IT ACHIEVES THE SAME END.

Too much tail wagging the dog. I don't really care if you gut the scenario entirely as long as it meets the same ends - Night bug out (4-5 miles), on foot, across urban landscape, time constraints, avoid unwanted attention, ensure safety, CA legal, overnight stay, and the next morning look more like a traveler than a refugee. Have with them the gear, mindset and physical ability to make that workable. Regardless of whatever fictional context we want to set that exercise in.

Again, I appologize if I failed to make that point adequately earlier in the thread. I suppose I should have belabored it a bit more to make it abundantly clear.

hbsurfm
12-05-2012, 2:11 PM
I definitely like the scenario. I guess it can be a little difficult to determine the best type of strategy for this exercise depending on where the starting point is in CA as our landscape is so mixed.

In situations like what you are proposing, I would be in the mindset of avoiding ALL public roads the best I could. I live in Anaheim Hills so I immediately mentally prepare that I am going to bug out in the trails behind my house and bug out to less populated areas for a bit since everyone is going to be heading towards busy spots. Navigating in the dark and learning how to adjust to darkness after being in a lighted area is definitely going to be key.

Going off of your scenario interpreting that the reason we are bugging out is because we were already on the move and now our car is crippled in the middle of potential hostile territory, I would immediately lead the group to a potential uninhabited area as close to the train station as possible and prepare them mentally that as soon as dark hits, we will be sleeping outdoors in hiding until morning and then mad dash to the train station to avoid getting locked up the night before.

Just open thinking that I sometimes think about as well and based loosely off your scenario.

hbsurfm
12-05-2012, 2:24 PM
Forgot to mention:
Since we are blessed with the love of firearms and are all probably surrounded by gun nut friends ourselves, I wouldn't even take the ccw laws in to consideration since there will be so much chaos as is. Light caliber weapons would definitely be the call for the weight portion and conceilability (9mm). Having someone in the group That can carry a quickly broken down AR to fit in a back pack with a couple 30rd mags wouldn't hurt either.

Once train station is reached-strip weapon and bury it somewhere.

bruss01
12-05-2012, 2:44 PM
(lots of good stuff)

Appreciate the posts.

Trails and railroad tracks are an option for keeping off the main routes. I think the feasibility would depend on how much detour they require and if the group can make that kind of deviation and still meet time constraints. It's possible that drainage canals (during the dry season) might offer similar seclusion. Not sure about legallity, I've never tried to walk one out before.

If the taken-down AR will fit in the pack, no need to ditch it... bring it along. As far as anyone knows, it's a one-man tent in your "camping pack". I have a Kel-Tec Sub 2000 that can fold and go into the pack, completely unnoticeable to a causual observer.

However, we'll "agree to disagree" about ignoring ccw laws. I won't risk my group losing firearms rights on an exercise because we cut corners and hoped no one would notice. Come the day it's for real... who knows, I might get all flexible on that score. Until then, we keep it strictly legal. A pistol unloaded in a locked container can come along, and you never know when you might need to pry something (crowbar), pound something (claw hammer), or chop something (axe) and I don't think its illegal to carry tools unless your intent is to commit burglary.

Good thoughts - appreciate the good posts.

berto
12-05-2012, 5:20 PM
Some of these are good points but others I think should be obvious. There is a big difference between a bunch of people laughing, talking, rattling their gear all around making a bunch of noise... and people just walking quietly without talking, who have their gear quietly secured with no loose gear banging and flapping around. Your comment made me think you expecte "ninja quiet" rather than just not making enough noise to draw attention. I don't envision needing to tiptoe like you're sneaking up on a deer from behind... just keep the ruckus down - no loud talking, no gear banging around, no stomping, just quiet walking. Not really that hard, is it?

I don't think you need ninja quiet but to pretend that people won't set up something to alarm them if intruders enter their neighborhoods is unrealistic.

[/QUOTE]You avoid authorities by not not walking right into a checkpoint. By ducking behind a tree when you spot headlights. By not shooting your guns unless there is no absolutely no other option - which means fighting with hands or handheld weapons that do not make a lot of noise - knives, axe, baseball bat. I agree that everyone in the group should be armed... but not all of them need to be armed with FIREARMS if that poses challenges we'd rather not deal with. People were able to arm themselves before guns were invented. And it's perfectly legal to walk down the street with an unloaded gun in a soft case that is locked... such as a fanny pack or in a backpack. Pretty much everyone can have one of those. Yes, a little slower to bring into action. Those who are locked and loaded will need to buy the others some time to bring their arms into play... THAT is the kind of suggestion I was looking for, not "your scenario is whacked, man..."

Really, "night vision", "drones"? This isn't a war zone, it's a disaster area. The curfew is about keeping people home instead of going out looting and causing a ruckus. Aside from a few checkpoints on major arteries, the cops have their hands full. They are not going to be roaming around actively looking for curfew violators. But if they come across any, they'll take them out of circulation. You keep quiet and basically invisible, avoid known or spotted checkpoints by being observant, and stick to obscure side streets rather than the main drag.[/QUOTE]

You stated those breaking curfew get gitmo'd. If the gov is gitmo-ing people for being on the street from dawn to dusk I'd assume they were taking measures to find folks on the street. There will be authorities driving around. They will be armed. They will be looking for parties like yours. Far fetched? Not really. It probably depends on your area and what targets it presents. But it's your scenario. You asked for discussion, I'm giving you things to think about.


[/QUOTE]There's no existing infrastructure to scan people getting onto trains such as exists at airports. Three to six months later, you might be right... they'd have time to install the equipment. But there's a window of opportunity, I believe, before they come fully up to speed. It'll still be chaotic enough to make it plausible. And worst case, you dump your firearms and proceed on the train with just your "tools" - knife, hatchet, pepper spray or baseball bat.[/QUOTE]

It takes time for airport style machines. Perhaps they go hand check at the rail stations. Manpower and time and they have both especially given that rail is all that's left. Passenger trains running on time likely drop as security is a bigger priority.

[/QUOTE]Wonder why someone would call the cops on a small group of people, peaceably and quietly walking down the street? Doesn't that happen every day? You must have either made some unwarranted assumptions, or you left something out of your explanation.[/QUOTE]

I guess it depends on where you live. I'm confident I have neighbors who would call the cops if they saw a group of 4-6 strangers walking through the neighborhood wearing backpacks and acting "off" after dark. You are doing a practice run of sorts with backpacks, a scout, and hand signals right? Again, just discussion, like you asked for.

Sunday
12-06-2012, 6:51 AM
CCW permits ???????????????????? Train?????????????? Bridges taken out???????????????

kb58
12-06-2012, 7:51 AM
...I'm confident I have neighbors who would call the cops if they saw a group of 4-6 strangers walking through the neighborhood wearing backpacks and acting "off" after dark...
Agreed, most normal people would, and this group would stick out like a sore thumb once spotted.

The odds of the presented scenario happening exactly as described is about zero, so any advice on what to do in that situation is about useless. Ah but it's fun to dream, I guess.

bruss01
12-07-2012, 1:33 PM
CCW permits ???????????????????? Train?????????????? Bridges taken out???????????????

Sorry... you had questions about any of those?

At least two of the group members already have CCW permits. Right now, in the real world. Others are working on it. Regardless, it is not illegal to transport a firearm in a locked container. No reason every member of the group couldn't be carrying a firearm that takes just seconds to bring into action if need be.

Train? Not sure where you live, but we have trains here that run out of state. There is no screening to get on board these trains. It's not implausible that they'd be kept up and running in order to allow people without cars to egress the area, making management easier. The fewer people "stuck" the fewer there will be to riot and loot.

Bridges? Trying to figure out what you meant there but even terrorists f#%k up. Jamal was supposed to take out the train bridges but he got lit up for a minor traffic offence with 300 lbs of explosives in his van, tried to run for it, and made himself into a small mushroom cloud out on county road 47. The couple of charges he DID manage to plant never went off because he was supposed to be the one to call the burner-phone detonators on them, and he never got the chance.

Geez... play along a bit. Some of you guys have got the whole thing backwards. Tweak the scenario to fit the exercise, not the other way around. The story is fiction... the goals of the exercise are what matter here.

drutledge79
12-07-2012, 2:31 PM
I am usually the last to be a hater but this seems pointless. If you got into that situation (a *real* sucky situation), then... it would suck. Just walk to the train station. Hopefully no one messes with you. If your real lucky you'll actually get on a train at some point. This is like a plane-crash. Very unlikely and it would suck to deal with. Not much point in practicing it.

I have 2 comments:

1) I've taken Amtrak twice in my adult life. One time it was 3 hours late, the other it was 14 (FOURTEEN!) hours late. Umm. Yeah.

2) The real answer to this scenario: a motorcycle. Can carry 2 people with minimal gear and you can navigate clogged roads. Just take an unpleasant ride for 12+ hours and you'll be in another state and safe. 50mpg + 5 gal will get you real far. (KLR-650)

Lifeon2whls
12-07-2012, 2:52 PM
Geez... play along a bit. Some of you guys have got the whole thing backwards. Tweak the scenario to fit the exercise, not the other way around. The story is fiction... the goals of the exercise are what matter here.

You've never lived through a serious disaster have you?

The problem I see with the fiction you've come up with here is that you've tried to mix a bunch of movies into one bad story and when people tell you that it's not a good idea to go outside, you insist that's the only way to play your game.

If there is a strong enough LEO/NG presence to arrest people, etc...then things are already on their way to getting better. If homes are being burned and people aren't safe, they wouldnt enact a curfew. During the '92 riots, we had a curfew because people were safe in their homes and there was no reason for you to be out at night. If the city is burning and we have refugees, then camps, etc will be set up for those people to go to (assuming there is some measure of control). If control has been lost entirely, then its every man for himself and you'd better be armed to the teeth. You can't drive because the roads are completely clogged and if you're walking you'd better not look like you have anything...the more you can look like an injured homeless person the better. If you dont have anything they want, no need to even bother with you.

Also, in the story this isn't a "disaster" its a war zone. A Disaster is an earthquake or flood. Terrorists blowing things up, etc have created a war zone, hence a much different scenario.

As others have stated, if your mystical train station is one of the only place with power, then you'll have millions of people who will flock there. Any station we have in the city can only handle a few thousand people at a time. Riots will break out and this will be the LAST place you will want to be. Unless you can walk out of the hot zone, your best bet is to sit tight and let LEO/NG do their thing and have your rifles at the ready to defend what's yours.

Also, if things are as bad as you say they are, you are NOT going to be alone as you walk around. Its going to be EXTREMELY dangerous with LEO/NG being the least of your concerns. BTW...in situations like these the LEO/NG do not arrest, they tend to fire first. Good luck on bugging out.

Lifeon2whls
12-07-2012, 2:57 PM
2) The real answer to this scenario: a motorcycle. Can carry 2 people with minimal gear and you can navigate clogged roads. Just take an unpleasant ride for 12+ hours and you'll be in another state and safe. 50mpg + 5 gal will get you real far. (KLR-650)

+1 to this. Just make sure you know how to ride first. I split through traffic every day and its not something you just do...its a learned skill like everything else, especially if you have a passenger on the back.

Yehosha
12-09-2012, 9:24 AM
Are the members of your group fit enough to be able to carry 40 lb BOBs on a non-stop 5 mile trek? If not, have you considered where/how you will stop and take rest breaks without being detected?

Lone_Gunman
12-09-2012, 7:06 PM
I would have stayed home. If it is only state wide you will have the support of the entire US. If you have sufficient supplies, why would you take the chance of heading out? Gridlocked roads, rail service that may or may not get where you want to go. If you were prepared enough to have solar and a ham radio you should have 3 months of food and water. Why not ride it out at home rather than going on the road?

Lucky Scott
12-09-2012, 8:31 PM
I think any area that has tire shredding traps set up to disable a passing car, would also be an area that would attack and ambush anybody heading thru to look for guns, supplies, whatever. I think by moving your group on foot you expose yourself to danger.
Your entire plan is flawed in terms of exposing your group and depending on the train station personal. Who would continue working their train job and keep the trains running in the event of a statewide catastrophe. The workers would load up on the first train heading east and then the trains would stop. Most likely while you are trapped there with no facilities, and no water, exposed to whomever wants to attack your group.
Under the parameters of your situation, bugging in would be the best bet. A defensive situation with adequate supplies of water and food would be the best plan.

kb58
12-09-2012, 9:16 PM
... Who would continue working their train job and keep the trains running...
The OP created a mythical situation where rail workers keep working - he's free to invent any scenario he wants, however unrealistic. It's why I asked if he was writing a novel.