PDA

View Full Version : Need opinions on upcoming ammo, guns. parts shortages and extreme price hikes


problemchild
11-23-2011, 9:03 PM
Do any of you remember how far before the past prez election the ammo, primers, guns, parts started shorting and getting expensive? I want to be well prepared before the crap hits the fan again.

I searched Google and found this to be an early post by AP which means we are a couple months away from shortages possibly.

.................................................. ....................................
By Mike Wilson - The Associated Press
Posted : Sunday May 20, 2007

DES MOINES, Iowa — Ammunition shipments to local gun shops and police departments are being delayed for months ........

.................................................. ...................................

thenodnarb
11-23-2011, 9:13 PM
I remember reading an article that mentioned "the great primer shortage of 2009." I bought an AR just before the election, and the day after the election the same store was FREAKIN PACKED. they said they had the single biggest sales day they ever had that day. For months all you could buy were oddball uppers like 5.7
Luckily they still had plenty of lowers so prices didn't increase for that at this particular store, but I recall that people were buying dozens of lowers and they were hard to find.

Parts kits were also scarce for a while. Apparently it was the hammers that were preventing the parts kits from being complete because I could buy all the parts except for the hammer.
Barrels were also somewhat scarce.

These things happen because of perceived scarcity, so they happen almost immediately. People were buying pallets of ammo during the obama craze. I've heard of people putting 100k on their credit cards to buy guns, ammo, reloading supplies etc... After a year they were tapped out(I assume) and things returned to normal.

What future craze are you preparing for that I am missing?

damon1272
11-23-2011, 9:30 PM
PC the shortage is coming again. I would look for primers and powder as they were tough to get. Spare parts kits and a lower or two. I have been thinking about this and went through my parts I have assembled three more rifle with the parts I had on hand from lowers to uppers. All I bought was one parts kit and bullet buttons. If one was looking to make some money I would buy a few lowers while they are cheap along with kits.

echo1
11-23-2011, 10:04 PM
I've got plenty of stuff, but virtually no spares. I'm not leaning towards the reload mode either, mainly from a cost per caliber I'm keeping. But all this stuffs good as gold as far as I'm concerened. Some sheeple are coming off the fence and are gearing up and won't take long to deplete inventories if there's a panic. PAX

Scout2Diesel
11-23-2011, 10:21 PM
I'd keep in mind when the regular Xmas 2012 orders are sent/filled....be an early bird.

thenodnarb
11-23-2011, 10:30 PM
wait, is this a 2012 thing?

Intimid8tor
11-23-2011, 10:40 PM
Well we're over 4 years from that article which means we are closer to the election already and ammo supply is not an issue.

We had a more limited supply of ammo then, for whatever reason. Then the Obama rush, which I participated in at some level came on top of it.

Once the ammo supply went short, then pmags went short and all hell broke loose.

I don't know that we will see that level of craziness this time around. If we do, I will unload some of what I have and then replace when things calm down.

The economy has also not gotten better, unemployment still sucks, etc which means less money out there to spend which should temper things a bit.

I think spring or summer of next year we might see a bump up, but it shouldn't be as bad. If we find ourselves in another ground war that could easily change and we might have a shortage once again on the good quality NATO ammo.

Chant
11-25-2011, 4:02 PM
It's going to be interesting how the prices are going to play out by the 2012 elections. I see a couple of ways it can go if Obama appears to be winning:

1) Similar to last election: People go on a buying craze, so price hikes and shortages.

2) Combination of factors: People spent their money on the last election, unemployment, Thanksgiving Black Friday purchases, etc. equals lack of funds to repeat the last election buying craze.

3) Manufacturers have been in production awhile, and maybe won't repeat having small inventories this upcoming election, or artificially create a shortage to raise prices.

In my opinion, in the short term, people are out of money and prices will stay stable. But long term, if Obama is relected and starts a agenda of gun control, then I say demand will outstrip supply once again. I could be wrong, and short sided. I'm just saying what's on my mind. I hope I'm making some sense here (running on couple of hours sleep last two days due to work)

problemchild
11-25-2011, 4:21 PM
What will be really interesting is to see what people do with all the guns and ammo if he bans them which he could do after he replaces 3 SC judges.


It's going to be interesting how the prices are going to play out by the 2012 elections. I see a couple of ways it can go if Obama appears to be winning:

1) Similar to last election: People go on a buying craze, so price hikes and shortages.

2) Combination of factors: People spent their money on the last election, unemployment, Thanksgiving Black Friday purchases, etc. equals lack of funds to repeat the last election buying craze.

3) Manufacturers have been in production awhile, and maybe won't repeat having small inventories this upcoming election, or artificially create a shortage to raise prices.

In my opinion, in the short term, people are out of money and prices will stay stable. But long term, if Obama is relected and starts a agenda of gun control, then I say demand will outstrip supply once again. I could be wrong, and short sided. I'm just saying what's on my mind. I hope I'm making some sense here (running on couple of hours sleep last two days due to work)

freonr22
11-25-2011, 4:24 PM
I assisted in trying to do a million primer group buy then. Wasn't pretty

dave3223
11-25-2011, 4:45 PM
With all due respect...Timing what will happen in the future IF something happens is like trying to decide when is the best time to be buying silver, gold, other precious metals, or other tangible goods for that matter. In truth, why wait??? Dollar cost averaging is the way to go and thus, the time to buy is now... as well as next month... as well as the month after that and so on.

I understand what you are trying to say, but in truth your plan is a flawed plan. If you are truly concerned about having enough ammo so that you do not have to worry about the huge price swings, then buy it now while it is probably cheaper than in the future. Continue buying it so that by the time the prices possibly increases due to the possible "IFs" that you are concerned about, you won't have to worry about this. Everyone (including you) knows that ammo is cheap at this time regardless of how much they are paying. If one is concerned that it may become more expensive in the future (which is likely to be proven right at some time in the future) then why wait and try to figure out the best time to buy. Thus, NOW is the time to buy rather than worrying about what the market will do in the future if certain situations and/or conditions take place. Just saying.

dave3223

GMG
11-25-2011, 4:57 PM
After the election in 08' lowers were at a premium, upper's forget about it.

I ordered two uppers in Dec. 08', received them in June 09'.

easy
11-25-2011, 5:16 PM
Timing is everything. During the last crunch there were large miltary ops going on. Today they are essentially winding down. I don't believe things will be nearly as tight as last time. But I do not have ESP either.....

fabguy
11-25-2011, 6:25 PM
Already been stocking up...heheheheehhe... don't wanna get caught with my wallet hanging out again

chris
11-25-2011, 8:09 PM
What will be really interesting is to see what people do with all the guns and ammo if he bans them which he could do after he replaces 3 SC judges.

some people on this board were to blind to see that the last election was nothing about the new president but it had everything to do with SCOTUS. McCain may have not been a good president but i can say that he would not have picked the two that are there now.

sholling
11-25-2011, 11:23 PM
There were two things contributing to the shortages. The first came before the election when even barrels were in short supply due to the wars. Barrel makers were swamped with defense contracts and subcontracts. The second came the day that the pubic realized that a fanatical anti-gun extremist had just been elected president - what I call The Great BO Panic of 2008-2009. Between the demands of two wars and the panic there wasn't enough of anything to fill orders.

This time if it comes I think it will come with the realization that Obummer is about to win the election. In the meantime any social unrest driven by Occupy and the unions will just add to that. Middle class concerns over Occupy driven instability is reportedly driving a slight bump in gun sales as it is.

Ripon83
11-25-2011, 11:58 PM
Not a clue, but everyone stocking up on ammo made for some pretty sweet deals later on as someone needed to pay off the CC and had to unload thru the market place....that of course is well after the election not before.

RCJeeper
11-26-2011, 3:50 AM
The second came the day that the pubic realized that a fanatical anti-gun extremist had just been elected president

and yet, what has changed in the last 3 years . . . ? If anything, California has enjoyed a relaxation of gun restrictions, ARs, once considered taboo and the foder of endless forum debates on legality are now widely sold. Witness Turners.

Everyone got all worked up about not much at all. I prep but the ups and downs of national polical cycles do not change things much. The constitution is not easily amended. Our woes have much more to do with Sacramento than Washington.

sholling
11-26-2011, 8:47 AM
and yet, what has changed in the last 3 years . . . ?
Two anti 2nd Amendment Supreme Court justices have been appointed, he's banned the importation of M1s and M1 carbines, he's attempted to ban the importation of scary looking shotguns and he ran Fast & Furious (at the cost of hundreds of lives) in an attempt to justify a new scary looking rifle ban.

If anything, California has enjoyed a relaxation of gun restrictions, ARs, once considered taboo and the foder of endless forum debates on legality are now widely sold. Witness Turners.
And you're giving Obama credit? The credit goes to Calguns, the NRA, SAF, CRPA, and a handful of brilliant attorneys. Obama's DOJ is fighting us tooth and nail.

Everyone got all worked up about not much at all. I prep but the ups and downs of national polical cycles do not change things much. The constitution is not easily amended. Our woes have much more to do with Sacramento than Washington.
Apparently you don't remember the Clinton ban, the Clinton Administration's destruction of surplus M14 rifles, the ban on the importation of complete AK47 style rifles. Or the Clinton ban on new full auto weapons. Perhaps you've forgotten the stubborn refusal to recognize California's expungment systems. Perhaps you like restrictions on buying guns when you travel. Or the unsuccessful attempts to restrict where we shoot. As long as a Progressive like Obama is in office we are one heller-5 heart attack or stroke from seeing Heller overturned.

Ripon83
11-26-2011, 8:56 AM
While nothing has changed dramatically for the worst since Obama was elected the supreme court issue should appall anyone who believes in the 2nd amendment. Michelle is on record even saying they need just one more justice to change recent pro gun decisions that effected DC and Chicago. So while people who support Obama and the 2nd might enjoy a temporary bliss - it is just temporary.

problemchild
11-26-2011, 2:16 PM
2 ANTI-2A SC judges he anointed will be in position for 30+ years. If you call that nothing..... 1 more and all our gun rights are gone. The 2 he put into place have already said the people have no rights to own a gun.

While nothing has changed dramatically for the worst since Obama was elected the supreme court issue should appall anyone who believes in the 2nd amendment. Michelle is on record even saying they need just one more justice to change recent pro gun decisions that effected DC and Chicago. So while people who support Obama and the 2nd might enjoy a temporary bliss - it is just temporary.

Ripon83
11-26-2011, 2:38 PM
I'm only referring to nothing that which has occurred in actual gun rights legislation since he was elected. I was trying to point out the appt of the 2 supremes putting us on edge and one more possibly costing us a great deal of our personal liberties surrounding the 2nd. To me it would be reason enough not to support Obama in 2012, but sadly some just can't vote for anything but a "D" even when they love the 2nd.

elSquid
11-26-2011, 6:40 PM
In 2008, Obama's election website had a line item stating that he would seek to reinstate the federal AW ban.

Since I had lived through a couple rounds of bad legislation prior, in 2008 I went a little crazy buying black rifles. I think my last purchase was in late summer that year, and I had no problem buying what I wanted for a reasonable price.

Did I think that I'd need to buy ammo....NOOOOOOO.... :facepalm:

;)

I checked some of my old posts...

5.45 still avail for 10c/round in October, 2008:

http://www.calguns.net/calgunforum/showthread.php?p=2096069&highlight=ammo#post2096069


Note from Classic Arms: "They also mention that in the prior quarter - July to October - they sold 243 AK style rifles. In the 10 days following the election they sold 572!"

http://www.calguns.net/calgunforum/showthread.php?p=1717803&highlight=ammo#post1717803

Things pretty much went to hell the day after the election. Everybody knew Obama's stance on guns, and it was a mass panic to buy, not knowing what he'd do once in office.

-- Michael

problemchild
11-26-2011, 7:54 PM
I'm only referring to nothing that which has occurred in actual gun rights legislation since he was elected. I was trying to point out the appt of the 2 supremes putting us on edge and one more possibly costing us a great deal of our personal liberties surrounding the 2nd. To me it would be reason enough not to support Obama in 2012, but sadly some just can't vote for anything but a "D" even when they love the 2nd.


If you ever read or have read Enemies foreign and domestic you would know what he was trying to do with the Fast n Furious thing.

Gem1950
11-27-2011, 8:48 AM
Timing is everything. During the last crunch there were large miltary ops going on. Today they are essentially winding down. I don't believe things will be nearly as tight as last time. But I do not have ESP either.....

^^^ Yes, but we need to add to the equation the surge of new "Liberal" gun owners buying weapons and ammo!

damon1272
11-27-2011, 11:00 AM
If someone is getting into preping now I would recommend them securing what weapons they need, parts, mags,and ammo. Everything can be worked on in less of a hurried fashion after that as a new crunch is coming for guns, ammo, and parts. I do not see manufacturers ramping back up to pick up a temporary bump in sales as they did last time.

cudakidd
11-27-2011, 11:46 AM
I'm covered. The older folks here remember the great Primer rush of 1992 and 1994 under Clinton!

Got my needs covered for the next 5 plus years! All the gun purchases are actually done and now BOB is complete as well plus Shelter in place set up and even Trailer is done.

Now to just relax and enjoy a normal life...