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View Full Version : What are the odds of Palmer (DC Carry) succeeding in District Court?


Crom
10-07-2011, 12:42 PM
I wonder what the odds are of Palmer (http://www.archive.org/download/gov.uscourts.dcd.137887/gov.uscourts.dcd.137887.docket.html) succeeding at trial court? Of all the civil carry cases, to me it remains the simplest and easiest to decide. The constitutional question must be decided; no way I know for the Judge to avoid it.

Either the right exists or it does not. It's that simple. It would be great to finally win all the way up with this one.

the District has a complete and total ban on the carrying of firearms—all firearms, by all people, at all times and places and for all purposes. If the right to bear arms is, as the Supreme Court explained, “[a]t the time of the founding, as now, to ‘bear’ meant to ‘carry,’” Heller I, 554 U.S. at 584 (citations omitted), such that the right to bear arms is “the right to ‘wear, bear, or carry [arms] . . . upon the person or in the clothing or in a pocket, for the purpose . . . of being armed and ready for offensive or defensive action in a case of conflict with another person,” id. (citations omitted), then the District’s complete ban on the bearing of arms is unconstitutional. It is no different than the District’s unlamented prohibition on the keeping of firearms in the home—which the Supreme Court struck down without resorting to any manner of means-ends level of scrutiny, because it simply contradicted a core textual guarantee.-Filing 26 (http://www.archive.org/download/gov.uscourts.dcd.137887/gov.uscourts.dcd.137887.26.0.pdf)

Connor P Price
10-07-2011, 12:51 PM
My guess is that odds are quite slim. Even if the court knows its unconstitutional I think they'll continue kicking these cases up the line until there is a more clearly defined right spelled out by SCOTUS. They don't want to make the big decisions, they want the supremes to tell them how to do make them.

Untamed1972
10-07-2011, 1:01 PM
My guess is that odds are quite slim. Even if the court knows its unconstitutional I think they'll continue kicking these cases up the line until there is a more clearly defined right spelled out by SCOTUS. They don't want to make the big decisions, they want the supremes to tell them how to do make them.

What I think so stupid about that is, if you read that Heller quotes in the OP.....I dont see how SCOTUS could have made it anymore clear then that. The lower courts claming that Heller was unclear really mean, they dont like what Heller says and so are gonna turn a blind eye to it.

scarville
10-07-2011, 2:23 PM
I wonder what the odds are of Palmer (http://www.archive.org/download/gov.uscourts.dcd.137887/gov.uscourts.dcd.137887.docket.html) succeeding at trial court?

Slim
<-------- Right about here.
None

unusedusername
10-07-2011, 2:40 PM
I wonder what the odds are of Palmer (http://www.archive.org/download/gov.uscourts.dcd.137887/gov.uscourts.dcd.137887.docket.html) succeeding at trial court?

The same district court that said that the restrictions defeated by SCOTUS in Heller were perfectly legit? :confused:

safewaysecurity
10-07-2011, 2:47 PM
Personally I think Heller is unclear as well. It has all of this originalist language and then talks about reasonable regulations and this presumptively lawful nonsense.

hoffmang
10-07-2011, 3:24 PM
40% chance of success at District. It has a much higher success likelihood at DC Circuit Court of Appeals though.

-Gene

hoffmang
10-07-2011, 3:24 PM
40% chance of success at District. It has a much higher success likelihood at DC Circuit Court of Appeals though.

-Gene

press1280
10-07-2011, 5:04 PM
Very low probability IMO. The judge would be out there by himself; it seems they don't like going out on a limb(even if it's Constitutionally sound).

Better odds in any circuit court since any decision will require more than 1 judge.

Also, I'm confused how Gura is saying DC has a total ban on carry, when it's obvious DC is going to say you can carry in the home, and the judge will probably buy it.

Big Ben
10-07-2011, 6:52 PM
40% chance of success at District. It has a much higher success likelihood at DC Circuit Court of Appeals though.

-Gene

Why do you feel that way? My initial thought was along the lines of slim-to-none, but I'd love to be wrong. What makes you think there is a 40% chance? And please don't think I'm trying to bait you - I'm just looking for more experienced insight than mine.

hoffmang
10-07-2011, 8:31 PM
Why do you feel that way? My initial thought was along the lines of slim-to-none, but I'd love to be wrong. What makes you think there is a 40% chance? And please don't think I'm trying to bait you - I'm just looking for more experienced insight than mine.

It's one of only two total bans. Total bans are harder to weasel around with intermediate scrutiny. Recall however, that I'm saying 60% against. However, at the appellate level, this is the same court that ruled against DC in what would become Heller I.

-Gene