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yellowfin
06-03-2011, 1:32 PM
http://www.economist.com/node/18775436?fsrc=scn/fb/wl/ar/goodnewsisnonews
America's falling crime rate: Americans are committing fewer crimes, though nobody seems to know quite why

Uhm, gee, actually WE DO. The article credits the following as plausible reasons why crime has declined since the early 90's:

*decline in lead paint, leaded gas, etc.
*increased incarceration
*decreasing prevalence of crack related violence (?)
*abortion (???)
*the current White House occupant being elected president (?!?!?)

A time period which we also happen to know as when Right to Carry spread nationwide and is now the norm, along with an overall increase in firearms ownership. The FBI has said so, as have several other studies, all of which we know John Lott's book covers extensively along with articles every month in some place or another. Yet apparently if you're not in the pro-firearms circle, apparently it MUST be something else. ANYTHING else.

Stonewalker
06-03-2011, 2:29 PM
How about this?
100791
100790

Of course, there is no way to correlate an entire nation's crime trend to 1 issue, but this is a good indicator of a positive outcome of the liberalization of RTC laws.

CalBear
06-03-2011, 2:50 PM
Of course, there is no way to correlate an entire nation's crime trend to 1 issue, but this is a good indicator of a positive outcome of the liberalization of RTC laws.
Even if it is hard to correlate crime to one factor, the fact is the antis have continually warned that issuing more CCWs would lead to blood running in the streets. Their scare tactics clearly haven't panned out.

PEBKAC
06-03-2011, 3:15 PM
*reads article*

*decline in lead paint, leaded gas, etc.

Uh...what?

*increased incarceration

No, absolute bullplop. Our prisons do not reduce recidivism at all, if anything they can make the problem worse.

*decreasing prevalence of crack related violence (?)

That's saying "crime is down because crime is down" and dodges answering the question completely. :pinch:

*abortion (???)

...actually the evidence for this explanation is stronger than you might think. The basic gist of the it is "a lot of criminals to be got aborted in the 70s", as macabre as that may be. But as they point out it does not explain the more recent drop in crime greater than the generally expected decreases we've been seeing since the 90s.

*the current White House occupant being elected president (?!?!?)

I'll second the "?!?!?". The only thing Obama has inspired me to is new levels of cynicism...

Of course no mention at all of the rise of the popularity of law abiding citizenry knowing how to use and carrying weapons. That has to be at least as credible as "Magical Obama Effect" :rolleyes:

jwkincal
06-03-2011, 3:16 PM
Even if it is hard to correlate crime to one factor, the fact is the antis have continually warned that issuing more CCWs would lead to blood running in the streets. Their scare tactics clearly haven't panned out.

This is the only objective truth which can be extracted here. It still sits in our favor, though; it is an absolute and unassailable logical negation of the idea that gun control reduces crime or that lack of gun control increases it.

Beware of saying "RKBA reduces crime," though... that cannot be forensically derived from the data in question (or likely from any data presently attainable).

brando
06-03-2011, 3:36 PM
Lead abatement seems to be playing a key factor, as much as I would like to think it's gun related. It's likely a combination of factors, but the lead issue correlates well.

choprzrul
06-03-2011, 3:59 PM
Lead abatement seems to be playing a key factor, as much as I would like to think it's gun related. It's likely a combination of factors, but the lead issue correlates well.

I grew up chewing on lead paint, but my crime rate has remained constant: zero.
.

wuluf
06-03-2011, 4:27 PM
*decreasing prevalence of crack related violence (?)
No, absolute bullplop. Our prisons do not reduce recidivism at all, if anything they can make the problem worse.

I'm under the impression that "3 strikes laws" which permanently incarcerate career criminals have made a big difference in crime rates..

Kid Stanislaus
06-03-2011, 4:30 PM
I grew up chewing on lead paint, but my crime rate has remained constant: zero.
.

Yeah, but you ride one of those big V-twin motorcycles so you remain suspect!:D

stormy_clothing
06-03-2011, 4:32 PM
there is less crime because dept heads are demanding it - unfortunately it isnt that people are actually committing less crimes it's that creative paperwork and reporting by unverifiable entities that profit from it are rampant - there have been numerous stings in places like NY where cops have been nailed for bs'ing

here's proof

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/54/US_incarceration_timeline-clean.svg/693px-US_incarceration_timeline-clean.svg.png

oni.dori
06-03-2011, 4:39 PM
*


I'm under the impression that "3 strikes laws" which permanently incarcerate career criminals have made a big difference in crime rates..

I agree, it has made many second guess thier choices and go strait; but I have also heard that the three strikes sentence is not always "permanent".

Goosebrown
06-03-2011, 4:46 PM
"...actually the evidence for this explanation is stronger than you might think. The basic gist of the it is "a lot of criminals to be got aborted in the 70s", as macabre as that may be. But as they point out it does not explain the more recent drop in crime greater than the generally expected decreases we've been seeing since the 90s."

Correct. An "increment" is a set of people born in a given year that can be expected to do things in the same years as each other as the increment ages. The kids born in 1970 would start to have kids in 1988 for instance (demographically speaking). Well the increments from 1973 on (Roe v. Wade) dropped in a very specific way, the children of those that did not want children weren't born. People being what they are, the children of parents that do NOT want to have them tend to be treated worse growing up and tend to be badly parented. Since these sorts of people were removed from the increment starting from 1973, they are unavailable to commit crimes when they hit 18 which is where most people start committing crimes of a serious nature or at least where records start being kept.

1973 + 18 years = 1991. The height of the murder and crime growth in the US. Since then it has been a steady decline that is continuing to date. An interesting further thought on the increment of 1973, is their echo increment that would come of age 18 years after the ORIGINAL increment turned 18. 1973 + 18 years + 18 years = 2009. 2009 - 2010 are the years of highest drop, this represents the missing increment of unwanted children that would have been born OF missing unwanted children of the increment of 1973.

There are other causes of course like high incarceration rates (violent crimes are rarely committed by first time criminals, rather they are committed by those that before would have been released but are now incarcerated), but the "missing increment of 1973" is without a doubt one of the main causes in the decline of violent crime.

In short societies that only have wanted children tend to have lower violent crime rates.

ErikTheRed
06-03-2011, 5:19 PM
I chewed on window sills, rolled in dirt, whiffed gasoline vapors, washed my hands with paint thinner, even drank gallons of water from a garden hose......... yet somehow, I've managed to remain a law-abiding citizen for 38 years. Weird.

Goosebrown
06-03-2011, 6:00 PM
@Erik.. your parents probably liked you and told you not to do stupid things. Everytime you hear a crime is committed, think about how many people got cut off or looked at or pushed and simply let it go. Crime is the exception, not the rule.

Big Jake
06-03-2011, 6:40 PM
Even if it is hard to correlate crime to one factor, the fact is the antis have continually warned that issuing more CCWs would lead to blood running in the streets. Their scare tactics clearly haven't panned out.

I agree!:rolleyes:

zhyla
06-03-2011, 6:42 PM
So... Do we blame guns when the crime rates were climbing? Let's avoid this kind of statistical circle jerk, it proves nothing.

The gun debate is about rights, not crime.

fiddletown
06-03-2011, 6:43 PM
Correlation does not prove causation.

There are probably many reasons for the reduction in crime over the last couple of decades.

In NYC, beginning in 1990, the crime rate dropped precipitously. Murders were reduced by two-third, felonies fell by 50%; and by 2000, felonies on the subways had declined 75% (The Tipping Point, Malcolm Gladwell, Back Bay Books, 2002, pg. 137). The RKBA and liberalized right to carry laws certainly had nothing to do with that.

I have no doubt that liberalized gun laws and an increased willingness for people to take responsibility for their own safety is one factor in the Nationwide declining crime rate. But it's still only, at best, one factor, and it's very tough to prove.

And certainly it's clear that right to carry laws have not led to the bloodbaths that the anti-gun crowd had predicted.

But we do have to be careful about making claims that we can't substantiate.

What we can substantiate by collection data on successful defensive gun use, especially published accounts, is that there are many ordinary people that have been able to avoid becoming victims of violent crime because they did have guns.

Dreaded Claymore
06-03-2011, 6:59 PM
CalBear, Goosebrown, and Fiddletown have it right.

brando
06-03-2011, 9:19 PM
I grew up chewing on lead paint, but my crime rate has remained constant: zero.
.

I don't think you understand how statistical sampling works.

Left Coast Conservative
06-03-2011, 9:25 PM
This is the only objective truth which can be extracted here. It still sits in our favor, though; it is an absolute and unassailable logical negation of the idea that gun control reduces crime or that lack of gun control increases it.

Beware of saying "RKBA reduces crime," though... that cannot be forensically derived from the data in question (or likely from any data presently attainable).

There are studies which have concluded that liberalized carry laws cannot be correlated to lower crime. There are also studies that show that gun control laws cannot be correlated to lower crime. It is possible that this will never be answered by any study.

However, we have many more guns carried by more people in more states than ever, and crime decreases. More gun != More crime.

goodlookin1
06-03-2011, 10:07 PM
there is less crime because dept heads are demanding it - unfortunately it isnt that people are actually committing less crimes it's that creative paperwork and reporting by unverifiable entities that profit from it are rampant - there have been numerous stings in places like NY where cops have been nailed for bs'ing

here's proof

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/54/US_incarceration_timeline-clean.svg/693px-US_incarceration_timeline-clean.svg.png

There are many contributing factors to that graph. One of them IS because crime really has risen.

The other, however, is because lousy states like ours create more and more reasons to slap felonies onto people. The more laws there are to break, the more law breakers there will be.

DonFerrando
06-04-2011, 2:45 AM
Proof that resocialization programs are paying off ;)

The War Wagon
06-04-2011, 3:20 AM
It sure ain't because of the LOW unemployment rate... :rolleyes:


http://www.shadowstats.com/imgs/sgs-emp.gif?hl=ad&t=1307108139

ALSystems
06-04-2011, 9:48 AM
"...actually the evidence for this explanation is stronger than you might think. The basic gist of the it is "a lot of criminals to be got aborted in the 70s", as macabre as that may be. But as they point out it does not explain the more recent drop in crime greater than the generally expected decreases we've been seeing since the 90s."

Correct. An "increment" is a set of people born in a given year that can be expected to do things in the same years as each other as the increment ages. The kids born in 1970 would start to have kids in 1988 for instance (demographically speaking). Well the increments from 1973 on (Roe v. Wade) dropped in a very specific way, the children of those that did not want children weren't born. People being what they are, the children of parents that do NOT want to have them tend to be treated worse growing up and tend to be badly parented. Since these sorts of people were removed from the increment starting from 1973, they are unavailable to commit crimes when they hit 18 which is where most people start committing crimes of a serious nature or at least where records start being kept.

1973 + 18 years = 1991. The height of the murder and crime growth in the US. Since then it has been a steady decline that is continuing to date. An interesting further thought on the increment of 1973, is their echo increment that would come of age 18 years after the ORIGINAL increment turned 18. 1973 + 18 years + 18 years = 2009. 2009 - 2010 are the years of highest drop, this represents the missing increment of unwanted children that would have been born OF missing unwanted children of the increment of 1973.

(1) Excellent analysis of Why Abortions reduce crime rates by Goosebrown.

(2) Another factor is that there are fewer young men (who are most likely to commit crimes) as a percentage in the United States today. The average age is going up. The youngest of "Baby Boomers" are about 50 years old now.

(3) Higher incarceration rates has probably kept more career criminals in jail

(4) Increased CCWs has made crime more dangerous for criminals has also helped.

However I disagree with the article's explanations of lower crime:

Decrease in Lead Paint and Lead Gas - Sounds like an EPA Press Release
Current Occupant in White House - Based on what?

M. D. Van Norman
06-04-2011, 11:13 AM
Obviously, legalized concealed carry has nothing to do with the ongoing reduction in violent crime. Guns’re bad, okay? :rolleyes:;)

Seriously, though, a couple other factors also seem to be ignored in the items I’ve read. First, and following with the ideas about abortion and birth control, many of the people killed during the peak of violent crime were themselves criminals. They and their progeny are also not committing crimes today.

Second, fraud and other “electronic” crimes have been on the rise. Some criminals who might have employed violence in the past have probably moved into this safer and more lucrative arena. Think about it. If you were a criminal who managed to be born and stay out of prison thus far, why would you risk being shot by a licensed concealed carrier when you could simply skim his credit card and defraud American Express or Visa?

DonFerrando
06-04-2011, 4:54 PM
That lead paint thing is just laughable.

Rocket Man
06-04-2011, 5:16 PM
*decline in lead paint, leaded gas, etc.
*increased incarceration
*decreasing prevalence of crack related violence (?)
*abortion (???)
*the current White House occupant being elected president (?!?!?)



Um.... ya.... duh people, when Osamba uh Obama took office we all bought more GUNS!!!! crooks went & hid = less crime! There all figured out...:p