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socalguns
12-10-2006, 6:07 AM
This is awsome :) good morning

http://www.ar15.com/forums/topic.html?b=3&f=16&t=276761

AR-15 Ammunition Ammo Price Trends (Historical Charts) ~ updated 12/09/2006


I was curious as to the pricing trends of ammo and, being unable to find any resources available online, decided to cobble together some data and generate some charts. Hat tip to Brillo who was able to provide the historical data from archives of the incomparable Ammo Price List (http://www.ar15.com/forums/topic.html?b=3&f=16&t=222888).

Pricing is based on average of all vendor's net price on ammunition in-stock. Gaps in the sequence indicate all vendors listed being out of stock.

First chart is price of 1000rds in USD$:
http://i11.tinypic.com/2s92cl3.gif

Given that the USD$ is a fiat currency (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fiat_currency) and extremely susceptible to inflation (http://www.westegg.com/inflation/), I thought it may be telling to view the ammo pricing in terms of something real.

http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/gold/t24_au_en_usoz_2.gif (http://www.kitcometals.com/connecting.html)
This chart shows the pricing of 1000rds as valued in Gold Ounces:
http://i11.tinypic.com/2qxx9w2.gif

The above is not intended to be any sort of accurate financial analysis but best I could do with resources available. Hopefully it provides a little perspective.

If anyone has more historical pricing data (either on the above ammo or others) you're hereby encouraged to contribute.

Cheers,
Paje

socalguns
12-10-2006, 6:08 AM
4 more images

Related Base Metals Charts & Technicals


http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/base/copper-d.gifhttp://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/base/lead-d.gifhttp://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/base/zinc-d.gif (http://www.kitcometals.com/connecting.html)

http://safehaven.com/images/zeal/5325_d.gif

socalguns
12-10-2006, 6:09 AM
4 more images
http://safehaven.com/images/zeal/5325_a.gif

http://safehaven.com/images/zeal/5325_b.gif

http://www.lewrockwell.com/rockwell/gas-price.gif

http://www.lewrockwell.com/rockwell/electricity-price.gif

socalguns
12-10-2006, 6:15 AM
2 more images

Originally Posted By 2IDdoc:
Isn't gold really high right now?
Not to get too far off on a tangent here but ~ Again, this is relative to what Gold is compared.
In USD$ it is up recently in nominal terms (Of, relating to, or being the rate of interest or return without adjustment for compounding or inflation.). In inflation-adjusted terms, the current gold prices in USD$ aren't as impressive when considering the high of $850 in 1980 adjusts (http://www.westegg.com/inflation/) to around $2,200 today.

This chart shows the relative purchasing power of Gold and several fiat currencies:
http://i3.tinypic.com/wgx5c3.gif

When compared to the GYX (industrial metals index), Gold has just hit its lowest level in more than 5 years:
http://safehaven.com/images/saville/5038.gif

So, if we priced ammo vs. other metals (or oil!), the trend would be down even more significantly than Gold. Money being a medium of exchange that retains/stores value over time, I thought that the valuation of ammo vs Gold would give some perspective. In USD$ terms, I can only see the price of ammo increasing (big time). The 'pain factor' of this is directly related to one's dependence on USD$.
I think we can score another one for the Founding Fathers (see Article 1, Section 10 (http://www.usconstitution.net/const.html#A1Sec10) of the U.S. Constitution).

Regards,
Paje

socalguns
12-10-2006, 6:16 AM
2 more images
Charts updated (weekly).

I think the USD$ is really starting to show it's weakness.

"Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon. To control inflation, you need to control the money supply" - Dr. Milton Friedman[/QUOTE]

http://safehaven.com/images/saxena/5150_a.png
http://safehaven.com/images/saxena/5150_b.png

Expect Ammo prices to respond accordingly.

[/QUOTE]

QuickDraw
12-10-2006, 5:47 PM
Ugh! Stop,stop (one hand on head,
other on stomach) I feel sick!
All those charts make my head swim.:eek:
Nice job though.:D

Doug

The Soup Nazi
12-10-2006, 7:04 PM
This is Microsoft Excel gone wild right here. It looks like an office meeting presentation, but I guess the gist of things is, ammo isn't getting any cheaper?

thedrickel
12-10-2006, 9:08 PM
I think "buy it cheap and stack it deep" would have sufficed.

hoffmang
12-10-2006, 9:17 PM
The bottom line here is that there is a short term run on commodity metals and a loose money supply pushing those commodities up.

That is likely to change over the next few quarters.

-Gene

metalhead357
12-11-2006, 12:33 AM
I think "buy it cheap and stack it deep" would have sufficed.

LOL! Now where have I heard that before;)

Good find...and I forgot that they/it.ar15 had a link to Rifle Co with .308 prices:D

five.five-six
12-11-2006, 1:07 AM
The bottom line here is that there is a short term run on commodity metals and a loose money supply pushing those commodities up.

That is likely to change over the next few quarters.

-GeneI have fiends that are electricians int starting about 9 months ago, copper quadrupled, at first it was nice as they were getting a lot more for their scrap, but a few monthas later the wire started costing more than jobs were bid at... seems to be setteling down again

thedrickel
12-11-2006, 2:42 AM
I sold some scrap copper wire last week, it was $1/lb for #2 copper. Aluminum was ~60c. All I know is I took a load of junk there and they gave me 317 bucks. I had 260 lbs of copper wire. No wonder crackheads steal copper pipes. :rolleyes:

traxman
12-11-2006, 6:47 AM
I sold some scrap copper wire last week, it was $1/lb for #2 copper. Aluminum was ~60c. All I know is I took a load of junk there and they gave me 317 bucks. I had 260 lbs of copper wire. No wonder crackheads steal copper pipes. :rolleyes:

#4 THHN copper wire was over $1.25 per foot this summer. I just bought it for $0.65 per foot. The housing market locally has slowed, and I think demand would be higher in summer anyway.

I wonder if ammo manufacturers will lower their prices as raw material prices drop? It's a pretty competitive business though, so maybe we will see some relief in ammo prices soon.