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View Full Version : down-ballot races: Arnie's so strong Pooch, McClintock, McPherson viable!


bwiese
10-26-2006, 12:50 PM
This is political commentator Dan Schnur's analysis of down-ballot statewide races... (Schnur worked for Gov Pete Wilson and knows a thing or two about politics.) This is excerpted from his blog post on www.flashreport.org...

Aside from the AG race & the Pooch, the Secretary of State race may well be very important to us, and we know Bruce McPherson is friendly to gunowners. [McPherson voted against AB50 even after trying personal circumstances, his son was killed in downtown SF in an after-dinner walk during a mugging. Contrast this with the shrill antigun record of Sen Jack Scott, who's kid Adam was killed (at a 'party' with drugs & alcohol apparently present.)]

Fresh polling data suggests that Gov Arnie is 15% - 23% (depending on surveys, with error margins and Republicans-vote-more correction to polls, and corrections for a demoralized Demo base) ahead of Angelides and this will have some powerful carry-down in a lower-turnout election:


If Arnold wins by 2-3 points, Poizner will be elected Insurance Commissioner. (Lots of money and running against Cruz Bustamante is a very good place to be.)


If Arnold wins by 5-6 points, McPherson will be elected Secretary of State. (Incumbent known as a straight shooter and good government reformer isn't bad either.)


If Arnold wins by 10-11 points, Strickland will be elected Controller. (This assumes that the Democrats continue to prioritize the Garamendi-McClintock race over this one.)


If Arnold wins by 14-15 points, McClintock will be elected Lt. Governor. (This estimate was revised in the wake of the union money directed into this race last week.)


If Arnold wins by 18-20 points, Poochigian will be elected Attorney General. (Chuck is terrific, but Brown's name ID makes this a taller mountain to climb.)


And if Arnold wins by 40-45 points, Claude Parrish is elected State Treasurer. (OK, maybe not....)




The Pooch could indeed have a chance!

McPherson and McClintock are both maintaining well in the fight, too.

chickenfried
10-26-2006, 12:52 PM
Does McClintock still have a job if he loses?

bwiese
10-26-2006, 1:08 PM
Does McClintock still have a job if he loses?

Not 100% sure, but I do believe he's 'termed out' as state Senator (?).

bg
10-26-2006, 1:33 PM
I believe Koretz is out due to term limits. If so, we
may not have to deal with an AB 352 type bill for a
while..

CALI-gula
10-26-2006, 1:58 PM
I've been saying this all along. I foresee an election with turn-out similar to the Simon/Davis election (which had the worst voter turn-out in over 30 years from both parties, and the counted votes had Davis and Simon VERY close) and I am still amazed when others keep harping about how good Jerry "MOONBEAM" Brown will be for us, even though they note they will vote for Poochigian.

I hold a letter from Chuck Poochigian written directly to me, noting that he would not only vote NO on AB50, but that he supports the 2nd Amendment without question and would vote NO on any infringement against the 2nd Amendment. For his standing ground against gun control, in California where doing so can mean unfavorable political repercussions, he deserves our unwavering support without even a mention of our consideration of his opponent as "not so bad".

Poochigian stood up for us then, AGAINST AB50, which ironically is being used against him by Jerry "MOONBEAM" Brown, and certain factions that would have benefited from Poochigian's courage to vote in our favor are now turning their back on Poochigian. Disgusting!!

But those factions go further to talk up Poochigian's opponent, shoving salt in the wounds they created. Reminds me of the French; promote your antagonist and let them walk all over you, "just in case". That is NOT good politics contrary to what they are touting, for it lacks integrity and loyalty which are the heart of good politics. Of course, I suspect those doing so have other personal motives in stumping for Brown as "not so bad" that have nothing to do with 2nd Amendment Rights, though they would like us to believe otherwise.

I would rather not give in until the votes are counted, and promote the guy that stuck his neck out for us until the very end. If it doesn't go our way, true political talent has the ability to befriend "MOONBEAM" later. We can shake hands later.

Everything is forgiven at cocktail hour, everything is copasetic over the hors d'oeuvres buffet - AFTER THE VOTES ARE COUNTED!

Until then, there should be no sign of concessions, no signs of conceding.


.

CALI-gula
10-26-2006, 2:11 PM
I believe Koretz is out due to term limits. If so, we
may not have to deal with an AB 352 type bill for a
while..


Hah! You have been fooled - look up the guy that will surely replace Koretz in that very District (42nd). (Now THERE is an election where the Republican doesn't stand a chance - West Hollywood - enough said.)

Feuer will carry a NEW version of AB352 to Sacramento. Mike Feuer proposed and passed in LA City Council, a ban on the sales of .50BMG rifles in the city of LA long before AB50 was passed. Feuer backed the ban on .50 Caliber handguns as well. Feuer was also the instigator and AUHTOR of such gems as LA's "Ultra-compact Handgun" sales ban, mandatory trigger locks, banning high capacity magazines, fingerprinting and registration for ammo purchases, 1 per 30 day handgun sales, and authored the motion for Los Angeles to sue gun manufacturers, AND MORE!!! ALot of these ordinances he pushed were passed long before they went state-wide!! I am even willing to bet that Koretz heavily enticed Feuer to run for office in his District since he was termed out JUST so he could continue Koretz's nutty legacy of a one-man regime to rescind the 2nd Amendment.

AND YOU CAN BET FEUER IS WANTING THE ATTORNEY GENERAL OFFICE IN A FEW YEARS!! That would likely be his ultimate wet dream!

Feuer is WORSE than Koretz.

http://www.mikefeuerforassembly.com/accomplishments_safety

.

6172crew
10-26-2006, 2:12 PM
Start up a poll, Id think Pooch is a clear winner here at CalGuns.:cool:

luvtolean
10-26-2006, 2:14 PM
Cali-Regarding Pooch, you're preaching to the choir.

I'm curious where this "demoralized democrats" stuff is coming from? If anyone is demoralized in this state, it's republicans.

Sheeze, we have people here so resigned to the various gun bans, they're begging to list their OLLs.

CALI-gula
10-26-2006, 2:19 PM
Cali-Regarding Pooch, you're preaching to the choir.

I'm curious where this "demoralized democrats" stuff is coming from? If anyone is demoralized in this state, it's republicans.

Sheeze, we have people here so resigned to the various gun bans, they're begging to list their OLLs.


I am not so sure - I have seen numerous posts and continued threads here on Calguns.net that repeatedly undermine Poochigian and tout Jerry "MOONBEAM" Brown as "maybe not so bad".

Just read through them. I have seen plenty of those over the past 4 months. And yes, the "begging to list" thing has always disgusted me.

.

luvtolean
10-26-2006, 2:25 PM
Well, I'm sure I'm one of them in regards to that.

I don't think it hurts Poochigian to say Brown isn't the worst possibility for us.

Pooch's own site used to even say that on his Brown sez thing. He also brought up two separate pro-gun quotes from Brown in the debate.

I bet if you put up a poll though, no more than single digit number of people on this site plans to vote for Brown...that's what I mean about the choir.

bg
10-26-2006, 2:26 PM
Feuer will carry a NEW version of AB352 to Sacramento. Mike Feuer proposed and passed in LA City Council, a ban on the sales of .50BMG rifles in the city of LA long before AB50 was passed. Feuer backed the ban on .50 Caliber handguns as well. Feuer was also the instigator and AUHTOR of such gems as LA's "Ultra-compact Handgun" sales ban, mandatory trigger locks, banning high capacity magazines, fingerprinting and registration for ammo purchases, 1 per 30 day handgun sales, and authored the motion for Los Angeles to sue gun manufacturers, AND MORE!!! I had no idea Feuer was running. I do remember him
standing out front B&B Gunsales preaching how bad
firearms are when he was running against Delgadillo
for L.A's ATTY. I didn't think it could get worse
than Koertz, boy was I ever wrong.

Kestryll
10-26-2006, 2:40 PM
I am not so sure - I have seen numerous posts and continued threads here on Calguns.net that repeatedly undermine Poochigian and tout Jerry "MOONBEAM" Brown as "maybe not so bad".

Just read through them. I have seen plenty of those over the past 4 months. And yes, the "begging to list" thing has always disgusted me.

.


No one has been offering Brown as a good alternative to Poochgian.
No one has said we should abandon Poochgian and rally to Brown's banner.

What has been said is that since there is a chance that Brown will win it may be in our best interests not to treat him overly antagonistically since we may have to work with him later on. This doesn't mean not to oppose him or work to prevent him winning the election. But those things can be done without the nastiness and vilification.

Where in that does it say throw Poochigian to the dogs?
Where does it advocate voting for Brown?
Where do it say "Brown may not be so bad"?
Where does it say anything other than to act with class and diginity in our opposition to this candidate?

If you think Brown has no chance here in California you are deluded.
If you don't believe that I will be voting for, promoting and pushing for Poochigian up until 8:00PM on Nov. 7th you are even more deluded.

A victory for Brown is not gauranteed and no one is saying it is.
But until Poochigian is accepting Brown's concession it ain't over and that is just reality, like it or not.

jumbopanda
10-26-2006, 2:46 PM
If Arnold wins by 90-100 points, Dick Mountjoy will be elected senator. (:p )

kilword
10-26-2006, 4:01 PM
I think pooch will win basically because his name is 1st on the ballot for the list of people running for AG and alot of people(uneducated folks) wont care who they pick for AG, and just mark the 1st name on the list.

I hope this will weigh in poch's favor.
just a thought...

pooch for the win!

MikeK
10-26-2006, 4:36 PM
I think pooch will win basically because his name is 1st on the ballot for the list of people running for AG and alot of people(uneducated folks) wont care who they pick for AG, and just mark the 1st name on the list.

I disagree. When faced with the known and the unknown, people will, most likely, go with the known.

JB is an established politician that has huge name recognition, especially with the older voters.

Being first or second or third on the ballot isn't going to make a bit of difference.

Anthonysmanifesto
10-26-2006, 4:42 PM
The names on the ballot will rotate in position county by county

MikeK
10-26-2006, 4:48 PM
The names on the ballot will rotate in position county by county
I didn't know that. I thought it was decided by lot.

Kestryll
10-26-2006, 4:51 PM
Ok...I've been holding this in, but I'll ask it now. And, it's not directed at anyone in particular.

What exactly do you expect Jerry Brown to do while you're standing there with your hat in your hand saying, "But, Mr. Governor Brown, sir...I didn't call you moonbeam. Please don't ban any more guns, sir. Please."

Do you honestly believe that Brown will say, "Ok...I know I'm a hard-core, extreme, socialist/leftist...but since you were so nice to me by not calling me moonbeam on a web board I've never heard of, well gosh....I guess I'll allow you subjects to own 'assault rifles' and a .50 BMG rifle. Since you were so nice and stuff."

Come on now. Make no mistake. This is adversarial and we are in a battle with a foe that will turn California on its collective ear. To paraphrase a couple of quotes from 'The Terminator':



To believe that if we just play nice and not call Jerry Brown 'moonbeam' that he'll wave his hand of goodness over all of us is absolutely asinine. This is the most important race in the entire state.

First off 'adversarial' and 'antagonistic' differ quite a bit.
As I said, oppose him as you can, work to ensure Poochigian's victory. I never said stop trying to win.

As far as what I expect, I expect that IF Brown wins he will to some degree be in opposition to our position on firearms rights and laws in California.
I also expect that the degree of opposition and how aggresively it is pursued will be influenced, conciously or not, by how nasty things are in the election.

I doubt anyone expects Brown to reverse his stance or opinions but IF he wins he is who we will be dealing with, that is a possibility and one that must be taken into account.

Like it or not it is reality and like it or not all humans let there pride affect their judgement at times.

Anthonysmanifesto
10-26-2006, 4:52 PM
I didn't know that. I thought it was decided by lot.

my bad, its not by county, its by assembly district.

see the explanation at SOS (http://www.ss.ca.gov/elections/elections_ra.htm)

grammaton76
10-26-2006, 6:07 PM
I believe what Kes is saying is that we have two JB's we could be dealing with:

Jerry Brown, irked by a personal vendetta against people who gave him pet names and derided him on a board which a certain female DOJ staffer is VERY aware of.

and

Jerry Brown, who knows there's more boards of gun guys out there who didn't want him elected.

Don't give that certain female DOJ staffer ammo for her pet crusade, please. :)

Kestryll
10-26-2006, 6:19 PM
No stress MRex, I wasn't taking it personal, i just got to it first! ;)

I do think you're right in that no matter what we do Brown would not be our ally but Gram kind of has my point as well.

The best we can hope for is that Poochigian wins and we can look at this debate as 'well that was an interesting way to pass time.'
That's the option I want to see.

MisterDudeManGuy
10-26-2006, 6:24 PM
I personally don't see what there is to gain by 'playing nice' with a person who will most likely put the clamp down on this state such as we have never seen. Be that as it may, I meant what I said. How exactly do you expect Jerry Brown to respond? Do you think he's suddenly going to love firearms owners and abandon his leftist mind-set?

Jerry Brown + not 'playing nice' = nothing gained, more gun bans and leftist agenda

Jerry Brown + 'playing nice' = nothing gained, more gun bans and leftist agenda

Am I the only one seeing this?

You are absolutely correct. JB's actions taken (so far) towards the banning of guns is a statement of his personal political philosophy. His actions in the future can be expected to be a result of that philosophy, not a result of the immediate issue or personalities at hand. He may be less adversarial towards gun owners at times, but that is merely the art of diplomacy: The art of saying "nice doggie" until you can reach back with the other hand and find a nice big rock.

OLL registration - he will do whatever makes it hardest for OLL owners to posses weapons that, for all intents and purposes, closely resemble weapons that have already been banned. He will use the 'series' similarity to guide the uninformed into swallowing a rescinsion of more of our 2nd Amendment rights - with the gleeful backing of voters that probably own no weapons at all. Never mind that more laws do nothing to curb the lawless.

In that, his consistent philosophy of banning guns will be facilitated by a voting public that, for the most part, lacks any consistent philosophy at all. Most voters jump from issue to issue and form opinions, but do so with no philosophical grounding - leaving a mish-mash of opinions that don't show any continuity. A non-gun-owner is likely to not see the deeper philosophical issue because they have been blinded by the extremist rhetoric - "think of the children". "Well, I like children..."

People like that think that JB will let up on guns if we're nice. Once a gun banner, always a gun banner. It's not merely an issue, it is a statement of political philosophy.

10TH AMENDMENT
10-26-2006, 6:31 PM
If Arnold wins by 90-100 points, Dick Mountjoy will be elected senator. (:p )

If Arnold wins, by, say, 110-140 points, he will be elected as Conan. :eek:

10TH AMENDMENT
10-26-2006, 6:39 PM
Some people who are for Pooch just don't understand. Unless we refer to his opponent as MOONBEAM no one will know who to vote against! :p

And I am really serious!

mblat
10-26-2006, 6:47 PM
Some people who are for Pooch just don't understand. Unless we refer to his opponent as MOONBEAM no one will know who to vote against! :p

And I am really serious!


That is actually most astute observation in this thread. The only way people will choose Poochigian over Brown if they know that Brown is moonbean.....

6172crew
10-26-2006, 6:57 PM
Doesn't matter who wins the election, the NRA will have to work with the AG no matter what we say here.

Are we making things worse for the lobbyist or are we working both ends to ensure we give the NRA and Calgunners a fighting chance with what we think might be another left wingnut in office.

That last years under BL have been horrible, it took along time for things to get where they are now and I am sure that the NRA is thinking things through carefully and have come to the conclusion that they might in fact have to work with moonbeam and by calling this clown names we aren't making things easy on them....but I have never heard anyone say Vote for JB...never.

Show me one time where someone on Calguns endorsed JB.:cool:

jumbopanda
10-26-2006, 8:23 PM
I think pooch will win basically because his name is 1st on the ballot for the list of people running for AG and alot of people(uneducated folks) wont care who they pick for AG, and just mark the 1st name on the list.

I hope this will weigh in poch's favor.
just a thought...

pooch for the win!

doubt it. at the very least they'll look at the political party and pick the one they are most in favor of.

jnojr
10-27-2006, 11:18 AM
And yes, the "begging to list" thing has always disgusted me.

Funny how comments like that always come from people who already have their registered AWs.

Barring a miracle, if my choice is registered AWs or no AWs, I'll choose registered AWs. Holding out on principle will get me nothing. California is not going to suddenly become a pro-gun state. In the absence of an asteroid taking out the Bay Area, the best we can hope for is a slow reversal of the anti trend. Maybe, in 40 years, our grandkids will be able to pay cash for an EBR and walk out the door... but I'm not holding my breath on that.

jnojr
10-27-2006, 11:22 AM
Some people who are for Pooch just don't understand. Unless we refer to his opponent as MOONBEAM no one will know who to vote against! :p

And I am really serious!

This is a good point.

I constantly hear comments about "Gee, wasn't there a really goofy guy in California 30 years ago? What a funny coincidence that this guy has the same name! OK, off to vote for good, solid, guy-next-door "Jerry Brown" instead of that guy with the funny terrorist name!"

FWIW, Jerry Brown has changed an awful lot. He isn't the same "Moonbeam" as 30 years ago. His being elected as AG isn't going to be the end of the world. But there's no question that we'd be a lot better off with Poochigian as AG, and if calling Brown funny names might help to make that happen, I'm down with that.

chunger
10-27-2006, 3:12 PM
THEY flipped their cards and WE had the pocket aces.

the Legislative Session starts in 6 weeks....


30,000+ aces and counting :)