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PanzerAce
07-26-2006, 2:59 PM
In Febuary (I think), someone on this board (dont remember who), got inside information from the DOJ about how many of these receviers were estimated to have come into the state (though we never found out if that was 30k extra DROSs, or actual receiver estimates). Is there any chance that we could get the number as of right now?

sac7000
07-27-2006, 12:20 AM
In Febuary (I think), someone on this board (dont remember who), got inside information from the DOJ about how many of these receviers were estimated to have come into the state (though we never found out if that was 30k extra DROSs, or actual receiver estimates). Is there any chance that we could get the number as of right now?

I think the actual figures are less then 30K. Things seemed to have cooled off, those of us in the original core group have acquired our lowers and are not purchasing more. I suppose one could ask the actual FFL's who performed the majority of the xfers for their data. Even though we couldn't contact them all we could at least project the number of estimated transfers. The vendors could also give us an idea of how sales are now as compared to 30, 60 and 90 days ago.

tenpercentfirearms
07-27-2006, 8:11 AM
It isn't like the early days, but whenever a new guy comes into the shop and sees the FAB-10s on the wall, they ask, "What is that?" Then I tell them about OLLs and quite a few local guys have been buying them up still.

It still puzzles me how other FFLs still won't touch this thing. I have heard of dealers stopping selling them as soon as the DOJ sent out the regulation change letter. I have heard all sorts of rumors about the DOJ banning this and banning that to get back at us.

xenophobe
07-27-2006, 8:22 AM
AR series receivers are still regularly being transferred at our store... definitely not the same volume, but they're still purchasing.

The 30k estimate came through our shop and Bill posted it here, and it's definitely a legitimate estimate for that time period... I'd be willing to say that it's probably approaching 40-45k. We haven't heard anything else through the channels though.

sac7000
07-27-2006, 9:57 AM
It still puzzles me how other FFLs still won't touch this thing. I have heard of dealers stopping selling them as soon as the DOJ sent out the regulation change letter. I have heard all sorts of rumors about the DOJ banning this and banning that to get back at us.

The feeling I get from local FFL's in my area is that we are a 'fringe' element existing in a gray area of semi-legality. They hear one thing and see another. Most are curious but still not wanting to test the waters. I promote OLL's on a local level as much as I can with photos, live demonstrations at the range and of course the simple fact I'm still not dressed in leg chains and handcuffs.

maschronic
07-27-2006, 10:33 AM
well, you can add 10 OLL's to my name. :D i'm thinking about getting couple of Ak OLL's. should i get some???

grammaton76
07-27-2006, 1:51 PM
I promote OLL's on a local level as much as I can with photos, live demonstrations at the range and of course the simple fact I'm still not dressed in leg chains and handcuffs.

Cool. If you need a flier, there's one in my sig file. I try and keep 10 of 'em in my range bag at all times. I haven't gone to the range without giving at least one out since I started doing that!

sac7000
07-27-2006, 10:45 PM
Cool. If you need a flier, there's one in my sig file. I try and keep 10 of 'em in my range bag at all times. I haven't gone to the range without giving at least one out since I started doing that!

Yep, got em' in my range bag/briefcase along with other support documents ready for distribution no matter where I go. It's getting to the point now that I spend more time talking and showcasing my OLL's to interested parties then actual shooting.

I don't mind it really since every time I can capture somebody's attention it's the equal of planting a tiny seed in their brain. Joe sees my OLL and tells his buddy Jack who tells somebody else and so on. And when you take the time to let them shoot your AR, they become totally hooked. It's marketing magic.

SemiAutoSam
07-27-2006, 10:55 PM
Yep, got em' in my range bag/briefcase along with other support documents ready for distribution no matter where I go. It's getting to the point now that I spend more time talking and showcasing my OLL's to interested parties then actual shooting.

I don't mind it really since every time I can capture somebody's attention it's the equal of planting a tiny seed in their brain. Joe sees my OLL and tells his buddy Jack who tells somebody else and so on. And when you take the time to let them shoot your AR, they become totally hooked. It's marketing magic.


I realise you young guys might not remember as you might have been when you were a wee kid but there was a day when you could walk into a gun shop and purchase a Actual HK91 and or FN FAL brand new in da box and you were able to walk out with it without thinking you had just commited a crime. There was no 15 (at the time for handguns) wait or 10 day wait as there is now.

There was no background check you just paid the man at the counter and you packed up your bag (I always bought 2 or 3 cases of .308 when I bought a new rifle) and went out the door.

Those were the days. And we never knew they would go away after all we had the right to bear arms.

Sorry I just had a blast from the past going thru some old paperwork and seeing how many firearms I have purchased in the last 15 or so years.

bwiese
07-27-2006, 11:11 PM
The 30K estimate was back in mid-March - from a friendly DOJ staffer told to a trusted person who had other relatively unrelated business with DOJ Firearms Div.

What we _don't_ know is whether that 30K number was # of receivers or number of [/i]people[/i] - which could be a bit different (a decent fraction of folks purchased at least 2 OLLs).

Apparently this was an estimate from DROS # trend increase over time (not sure of exact methodology and combined with stats from audits of OLL vendors (remember those raid-like audits of OLL FFL vendors?) I believe that 30K number is fairly reasonable since the number of vendors selling OLLs is (or was) relatively low, and many sales up into Feb were via group buys and from a few dozen vendors max. It could be off, say, 15% either way at that time.

I was shocked (happily) with this number because I thought, at the time, it was only 10K-12K. But apparently this OLL stuff spread like wildfire in the southland.

With many folks who want OLLs now having them, sales will taper a bit. I'm betting that mid-40+K is a more reasonable number now - but again, I dunno if this is receiver count or purchaser count. (Some folks buy more than one receiver (!!) but there's only one DROS per purchaser. The DOJ may have looked at DROS increments, with their examination of FFL records via audits giving them an average number of receivers per DROS.)

grammaton76
07-28-2006, 3:40 PM
I was shocked (happily) with this number because I thought, at the time, it was only 10K-12K. But apparently this OLL stuff spread like wildfire in the southland.

*grin* With as many military bases (each of which generates lots of retired military) as Socal has, is it any wonder? :)

leelaw
07-29-2006, 3:22 PM
It still puzzles me how other FFLs still won't touch this thing. I have heard of dealers stopping selling them as soon as the DOJ sent out the regulation change letter. I have heard all sorts of rumors about the DOJ banning this and banning that to get back at us.

Threats to not renew AW permits work wonders for shops who need them for their LEO contracts. :mad:

mblat
07-29-2006, 3:36 PM
*grin* With as many military bases (each of which generates lots of retired military) as Socal has, is it any wonder? :)


Yes it still actually is.... Consider that DOJ have tried to make it as "grey" legally as they could and throw as much confusion as they could it is indeed surprising that so many people said "FU DOJ - I don't care".

MisterDudeManGuy
07-30-2006, 10:13 AM
Funny, but in the 30-40k numbers I hear, I certainly don't hear the state whining about seeing all the revenue from the DROS's that got those OLL's in state. Or the sales taxes from ammo, accessories, etc.

The FACT of the matter is that we are law-abiding citizens who are engaged in LEGAL commerce, and generating generous income for the state in doing so. The thought that 'we could go to jail' over all of this borders on lunacy. That joke shouldn't even be funny because it should be so far out of the realm of possibility that it wouldn't seem possible. But it IS funny because it DOES seem possible or at least plausible... The state seeking to jail tax-paying, law-abiding citizens - good God, what next?

Welcome to the dual-law system. One code of law to bust the balls of the law-abiding (facilitated by vague laws that can be turned to whatever purpose the state desires), and another code of law that essentially turns a blind eye to illegal activity. So an AW owner can get jailed for several years over posession while murderers can skip out after months. If they are even found guilty by their peers or sentenced to do time by the judge. Funny how California law seems to be more worried about the 'actions' or 'potential actions' of an inert implement (the AW) than the REAL actions and decisions of a criminal. As if the AW were the cause, rather than the criminal.

I suppose it's much easier to bust our balls since we're not bad people who are actually trying to break the law, and we aren't likely to shoot to defend ourselves when they come. We are just poor SOB's who are trying to pursue our interests (life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness) within the bounds of the law, and our thanks for doing so is ever more law to further constrain our actions.

From the legislator's POV it's the statistics that matter. You count as an AW arrest whether you were a drug dealer who shot cops with an illegal weapon or a guy in Irvine who was watching TV with a FAL in the safe (that they happened to declare illegal while you weren't looking).

chris
07-30-2006, 10:43 AM
Funny, but in the 30-40k numbers I hear, I certainly don't hear the state whining about seeing all the revenue from the DROS's that got those OLL's in state. Or the sales taxes from ammo, accessories, etc.

The FACT of the matter is that we are law-abiding citizens who are engaged in LEGAL commerce, and generating generous income for the state in doing so. The thought that 'we could go to jail' over all of this borders on lunacy. That joke shouldn't even be funny because it should be so far out of the realm of possibility that it wouldn't seem possible. But it IS funny because it DOES seem possible or at least plausible... The state seeking to jail tax-paying, law-abiding citizens - good God, what next?

Welcome to the dual-law system. One code of law to bust the balls of the law-abiding (facilitated by vague laws that can be turned to whatever purpose the state desires), and another code of law that essentially turns a blind eye to illegal activity. So an AW owner can get jailed for several years over posession while murderers can skip out after months. If they are even found guilty by their peers or sentenced to do time by the judge. Funny how California law seems to be more worried about the 'actions' or 'potential actions' of an inert implement (the AW) than the REAL actions and decisions of a criminal. As if the AW were the cause, rather than the criminal.

I suppose it's much easier to bust our balls since we're not bad people who are actually trying to break the law, and we aren't likely to shoot to defend ourselves when they come. We are just poor SOB's who are trying to pursue our interests (life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness) within the bounds of the law, and our thanks for doing so is ever more law to further constrain our actions.

From the legislator's POV it's the statistics that matter. You count as an AW arrest whether you were a drug dealer who shot cops with an illegal weapon or a guy in Irvine who was watching TV with a FAL in the safe (that they happened to declare illegal while you weren't looking).

very nice reply but i think they are looking for someone to make an example of and say " Look at these gun owners. they break law no matter what the law says." it could be something like that.

it would be a sad day to see that the lawfull gun owner and a tax apyer goes to jail for a law so poorly written no one understands it. there is a DA sueing the AG over this law. how bad of law this is. i would like to see this state follow federal law on this matter but we all know that is not gonna happen unless we give these losers their pink slip in november.

bwiese
07-31-2006, 1:16 AM
Funny, but in the 30-40k numbers I hear, I certainly don't hear the state whining about seeing all the revenue from the DROS's that got those OLL's in state. Or the sales taxes from ammo, accessories, etc.

Let's assume...
every OLL turned into a $1000 rifle with all parts purchased in CA;
each OLL rifle has a $500 scope and $500 worth of ammo purchased in CA;
all these items were purchased in CA w/all sales taxes paid (or use taxes paid);
one DROS per receiver (could be off, and the 40K number may be DROS count and not receiver count);


That's 40,000 x $2,000 = $80 million in total sales.
If each receiver has its own $30 DROS fee: $30 x 40,000 = $1.2Million.

With, say, 8% sales tax, this is 0.08 x 80Million = $6.4 million dollars sales tax + $1.2 Million DROS fees = $7.6 million dollar to state of CA max. In reality it's prob not even 1/3 of this given number of out of state purchases, cheaper builds, etc.

And even if it were $10M revenue into CA, you're way, way overestimating the effect. In the 6th largest economy in the world, this isn't even a drop of water mist in a tornado. If this were $125 million it might be useful to our cause, but it would have to be an ongoing and not one-time thing.