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OrangeCountyCCW
04-29-2010, 3:07 PM
This just in from the Lewis Consulting Group.

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Orange County Shocker!
Sheriff's Race Deadlocked!

Orange, CA – A new Orange County poll released today shows the race for Orange County Sheriff is essentially a dead heat.

A poll released by Lewis Consulting Group shows Sheriff Sandra Hutchens now leading former Sheriff Lieutenant Bill Hunt by 1 point 21% - 20%. The balance of the vote was split between Anaheim Deputy Chief of Police Craig Hunter and a large block of undecided voters.

The poll was conducted April 23-26. The survey of 400 likely Orange County voters has a margin of error of 4.9%.

Former State Senator John Lewis, President of Lewis Consulting Group, noted that “these numbers represent a surprising surge for Bill Hunt and suggest a strong probability that this race is headed for a November run-off.”

After the initial ballot question, the poll probed major vulnerabilities of each of the two leading candidates.

When respondents were asked their opinion of a Sandra Hutchens real estate investment in the 1990’s that went sour resulting in a tax lien and litigation to compel her from diverting rents and at the same time not paying the mortgage and an ultimate foreclosure on the property in question, by a 60% margin, voters were less likely to support the Sheriff’s re-election.

At the same time, when voters were informed of the part that Bill Hunt played in the alleged preferential treatment given to Greg Haidl, then awaiting trial for rape, voters were 64% less likely to support his candidacy.

Lewis noted, “Given the closeness of this race coupled with the fundraising potential of both candidates and the issues that can be exploited this could be a particularly nasty election season leading up to the June primary.”

the_donald_
04-29-2010, 3:16 PM
When respondents were asked their opinion of a Sandra Hutchens real estate investment in the 1990’s that went sour resulting in a tax lien and litigation to compel her from diverting rents and at the same time not paying the mortgage and an ultimate foreclosure on the property in question, by a 60% margin, voters were less likely to support the Sheriff’s re-election....

What re-election? This LA troll, who was thrown down the throats of Orange County residents was NEVER elected by citizens in the first place!

IGOTDIRT4U
04-29-2010, 3:25 PM
This just in from the Lewis Consulting Group.

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Orange County Shocker!
Sheriff's Race Deadlocked!

Orange, CA – A new Orange County poll released today shows the race for Orange County Sheriff is essentially a dead heat.

A poll released by Lewis Consulting Group shows Sheriff Sandra Hutchens now leading former Sheriff Lieutenant Bill Hunt by 1 point 21% - 20%. The balance of the vote was split between Anaheim Deputy Chief of Police Craig Hunter and a large block of undecided voters.

The poll was conducted April 23-26. The survey of 400 likely Orange County voters has a margin of error of 4.9%.

Former State Senator John Lewis, President of Lewis Consulting Group, noted that “these numbers represent a surprising surge for Bill Hunt and suggest a strong probability that this race is headed for a November run-off.”

After the initial ballot question, the poll probed major vulnerabilities of each of the two leading candidates.

When respondents were asked their opinion of a Sandra Hutchens real estate investment in the 1990’s that went sour resulting in a tax lien and litigation to compel her from diverting rents and at the same time not paying the mortgage and an ultimate foreclosure on the property in question, by a 60% margin, voters were less likely to support the Sheriff’s re-election.

At the same time, when voters were informed of the part that Bill Hunt played in the alleged preferential treatment given to Greg Haidl, then awaiting trial for rape, voters were 64% less likely to support his candidacy.

Lewis noted, “Given the closeness of this race coupled with the fundraising potential of both candidates and the issues that can be exploited this could be a particularly nasty election season leading up to the June primary.”

Link? Where is this being reported?

Glock22Fan
04-29-2010, 3:32 PM
Link? Where is this being reported?

+1

It would be nice to think that Hutchens is going to have a fight.

IGOTDIRT4U
04-29-2010, 3:38 PM
+1

It would be nice to think that Hutchens is going to have a fight.

Yes, it is a small comfort. Let's see what Hunt does with this info. It's his election to lose if he is this close to her in the polls 40 days from the election.

Note the HUGE group of undecided voters, though.

M198
04-29-2010, 3:45 PM
Am I the only one who thinks this might not be the most accurate poll? I need to see a source, but I have a feeling it's going to be something off here.

OrangeCountyCCW
04-29-2010, 3:51 PM
There is no link to the actual poll data as of yet, but this is being reported over at Red County (www.redcounty.com) by Matthew Cunningham. Matt is a big Hunter supporter and is extremely anti-Hunt, so believe me, if there were a flaw here or a way to spin this otherwise, I'm sure Matt would be doing it.

This poll was of 400 likely voters, which is larger than the Probolsky/Voice of OC poll taken earlier in the month, which had a sample size of 326 likely voters.

What this says is that while about 50% of the electorate is still undecided, Hutchens is losing ground (from 26% to 21%) and Hunt is gaining (from 11% to 20%). The AOCDS has sent direct mail supporting Hunt and there is going to be more direct mail attacking Hutchens. Stay tuned.

SteveH
04-29-2010, 4:09 PM
to 20%). The AOCDS has sent direct mail supporting Hunt and there is going to be more direct mail attacking Hutchens. Stay tuned.

I live in OC, registered voter, and have received any such mailings yet? Do I have to sign up somewhere?

OrangeCountyCCW
04-29-2010, 4:16 PM
No one -- except Meg Whitman maybe! -- has the funds to send mailers to all 3.3 million residents of the county, so most mailings (even very large ones) are targeted. That's why candidates and PACs hire consultants who have the data and experience to identify where to focus. For example, right now, I would expect most mailings to be going to those voters who are registered to vote-by-mail. Also, depending on the strategy, a candidate or PAC might focus on an area where their candidate is NOT polling well to help turn the tide, while passing over an area where the candidate is well-supported.

Rest assured that when SAFE OC does our direct mailings, we'll post PDFs here for all to enjoy!

M198
04-29-2010, 4:17 PM
I live in OC, registered voter, and have received any such mailings yet? Do I have to sign up somewhere?

As am I, but I haven't seen anything either. It wouldn't be very good direct mailing if you have to sign up for it. That's preaching to the choir don't you think?

Cuban8
04-29-2010, 5:34 PM
I live in OC, registered voter, and have received any such mailings yet? Do I have to sign up somewhere?


I received a mailer from Hunt three days ago.

JOHANNE
04-29-2010, 6:48 PM
I received a mailer from Hunt three days ago.


More To Come...Please Stand By....BillHuntForSheriff2010.com

Did I forget to mention that Bill Hunt will be Sheriff, even with the people who can't see the real gentleman who represents CCW better than anyone else, working hard to make sure that the Appointed Sheriff should be Sheriff? There are always world trotting people, slipping all over banana peels trying to satisfy their egos and others to follow others into Hell, without even thinking that there was a cool, simple answer to their particular interests...like CCW...Oh...did I forget to mention that Bill Hunt's highest priorities is CCW? Please visit BillHuntForSheriff.Com....See for yourself:eek:

RomanDad
04-29-2010, 6:58 PM
Link? Where is this being reported?

OC WEEKLY

http://blogs.ocweekly.com/navelgazing/breaking-news/new-poll-bill-hunt-erased-gap/

steadyrock
04-29-2010, 7:53 PM
The important thing to note on this poll is that "Not Hutchens" is beating Hutchens 80% to 20%. She's hosed.

VW*Mike
04-29-2010, 8:15 PM
I need to pick up my HUNT bumper sticker. I have only seen a few.

Gray Peterson
04-29-2010, 8:43 PM
Let's remember folks: Hunter versus Hunt. Everyone should watch the polls closely before the June election and see how close it is. Go out and vote in June!

CWM4A1
04-30-2010, 1:15 AM
I live in OC, registered voter, and have received any such mailings yet? Do I have to sign up somewhere?

I live in north county and have received two mailer from AOCDS promoting Hunt already. Like OrangeCountyCCW said, it's most likely by selection process and mailers are sent to those who are likely to vote and less informed about the situation, i.e. cities that's not being patrolled by OCSD. Bad economy means people have less money to donate and every dollar needs to spend wisely.

Reloaderx2
04-30-2010, 5:59 AM
I saw a Bill Hunt commercial on CNN. Pretty long one too. My neighbor said the commercial was also running on Fox news and A&E. Any incumbent running in the low twenties these days with such a large amount of undecideds is in a very, very bad position.

akzl
04-30-2010, 7:31 AM
I also received a mailer on Hunt. Have seen signs up and down Main Street and Tustin Ave in Orange. Let's hope we can unseat the appointed one.

1BigPea
04-30-2010, 10:51 AM
I'm been seeing a lot of Bill Hunt signs and bumper stickers around my area. My wife saw a guy walking yesterday in Lake Forest wearling a Vote for Bill Hunt T-Shirt.

Glock22Fan
04-30-2010, 10:56 AM
The important thing to note on this poll is that "Not Hutchens" is beating Hutchens 80% to 20%. She's hosed.

Possibly, but I would not count chickens yet.

Hunt, and even more so Hunter, have similar numbers.

Being the incumbent does make it a less pretty picture for Sandy, but the show ain't over 'til the fat lady sings.

SteveH
04-30-2010, 12:34 PM
I've seen Hunt signs all over the place. Yellow and green. OCSD uniform colors.

I saw one Hutchens sign on PCH. It was brown, appropriate given her LASO background. She should fire whatever consultant came up with that idea. Lets remind the voters sublimally of your LA county roots.

OrangeCountyCCW
04-30-2010, 1:11 PM
It would be great if anyone who receives a mailer connected with this race could scan it and attach it to their posts here.

If it's a mailer for Hunt or Hunter, it'll be a great way to get more unearned exposure for your candidate. And if it's a mailer for Hutchens (though I think she probably won't send any), we can see what our enemy is up to.

CWM4A1
04-30-2010, 4:08 PM
There is no link to the actual poll data as of yet, but this is being reported over at Red County (www.redcounty.com) by Matthew Cunningham. Matt is a big Hunter supporter and is extremely anti-Hunt, so believe me, if there were a flaw here or a way to spin this otherwise, I'm sure Matt would be doing it.



http://www.redcounty.com/sheriff-2010-sup-bill-campbell-endorses-sandra-hutchens/39270?taxonomy=29
And here's your spin. Bill Campbell came up to endorse Hutchens, and Cunningham's take is establishment hate Hunt so much they are willing to support Hutchens instead, in light of the new poll result.

I'll be watching how things go up to June 8th, and see how many existing OC politician actually endorsed Hutchens. If there is a trend, I guess it would be my time to re-register myself as independent instead of Republican voter for November.

Endorsing Hunter or Hunt is one thing, endorsing Hutchens is entirely another. When time comes to re-elect OC Board of Supervisors and/or other city/county officials, remember those who endorsed Hutchens.

stormy_clothing
04-30-2010, 4:45 PM
I don't know Hunt but I knew Greg Haidl for a number of years his brother Don too who lived a mile down my street or so. And I could see why besides his dads pull they would be easy on him, he's not a hardened criminal just a kid who made stupid choices. I saw alot of worse things come out Alta Loma High School thats for sure. The case itself was totally misreported and though I don't need to comment on it it wasn't reported fairly at all.

I would not hold those accusations over him personally, in the end the courts decided not him how it went down. It's too bad that OC Register feels the need to inform people in a slanted fashion to get a response.

RomanDad
04-30-2010, 5:51 PM
http://www.redcounty.com/sheriff-2010-sup-bill-campbell-endorses-sandra-hutchens/39270?taxonomy=29
And here's your spin. Bill Campbell came up to endorse Hutchens, and Cunningham's take is establishment hate Hunt so much they are willing to support Hutchens instead, in light of the new poll result.

I'll be watching how things go up to June 8th, and see how many existing OC politician actually endorsed Hutchens. If there is a trend, I guess it would be my time to re-register myself as independent instead of Republican voter for November.

Endorsing Hunter or Hunt is one thing, endorsing Hutchens is entirely another. When time comes to re-elect OC Board of Supervisors and/or other city/county officials, remember those who endorsed Hutchens.

Bill Campbell was against bait and switch before he was for it.

OrangeCountyCCW
04-30-2010, 6:17 PM
Bill Campbell was against bait and switch before he was for it.

Yep. :)

Bill Campbell is the weakest link on the BOS. I live in his district and know one of his staffers personally and he couldn't be bothered to return my call when Hutchens tried to initially pull my CCW back in October 2008. John Moorlach, whatever else can be laid against him, had the decency to call me back and spend almost a full hour with me on the phone.

It's laughable to see one commenter over at Meg County say that this is a "big endorsement" for Hutchens that means the "end of the road for Hunt and Hunter." I hope they were being sarcastic.