PDA

View Full Version : SCOTUS 2A Question-What will happen first if we win?


Cobrafreak
03-17-2010, 9:23 AM
If, and I say "if" just because I never am comfortable with a perceived "sure thing", what will be the most likely challenge from Calguns & the NRA against CA if SCOTUS passes the 2A incorporation issue? The infamous "List", 10 round magazine limits, CCW "Shall Issue"?

The Shadow
03-17-2010, 9:29 AM
According to other threads, the issues already in cue.

POLICESTATE
03-17-2010, 9:33 AM
My hope is the brady bunch decides to throw in the towel and go buy some guns. Now is that the audacity of hope or what? :59:

Window_Seat
03-17-2010, 10:13 AM
This is how I believe (and hoping) it should go, I know for CCW, it's a 1st priority necessity because of the good cause requirements and how there are people in need of one and can't get one because of corrupt unwritten policies.


CCW via the Sykes v. McGinness (http://wiki.calgunsfoundation.org/index.php/Sykes_v._McGinness) lawsuit
1,000' School Zone (626.9 PC)
Large Cap mags (because I believe it's more of a priority over the Roster)
Handgun Roster
AWB


Erik.

M1A Rifleman
03-17-2010, 10:29 AM
My bet is nothing - especially not in the near future. I figure the court will rule down the middle with the idea that we have the right to own some weapons, and out right bans on reasonable pistols and rifles will be a no go.

However, they will imply that machine guns and even potentially AW's are not protected and will be subject to regulations - maybe even to the point of a ban like we have in CA.

I further bet the rulling will include that regulation on carry outside the home is allowed - even including harsh application and fee requirements - again making it near impossible to obtain an CCW in CA.

Even if I'm wrong, and we get a total dream win from the court, my hunch is this state will fight it and will never allow any change. Any ground we would obtain would be thru costly and timely court fights.

These are just my thoughts - I hope I'm wrong on this.

POLICESTATE
03-17-2010, 10:37 AM
This is how I believe (and hoping) it should go, I know for CCW, it's a 1st priority necessity because of the good cause requirements and how there are people in need of one and can't get one because of corrupt unwritten policies.


CCW via the Sykes v. McGinness (http://wiki.calgunsfoundation.org/index.php/Sykes_v._McGinness) lawsuit
1,000' School Zone (626.9 PC)
Standard Cap mags that hold more than 10 rounds (because I believe it's more of a priority over the Roster)
Handgun Roster
AWB


Erik.

Fixed it for you. A Sig Sauer P228's standard mag holds 13 rounds, not 10. An AR15 style rifle's standard mag holds 20 or 30 rounds, not 10. :)

SgtDinosaur
03-17-2010, 10:38 AM
Yeah, maybe I'm too cynical but it seems like there is a lot of weasel wording SCOTUS could put in there that would tie us up for another 25 years.

N6ATF
03-17-2010, 10:53 AM
My hope is the brady bunch decides to throw in the towel and go buy some guns. Now is that the audacity of hope or what? :59:

As if the criminals don't have them already?

stag1500
03-17-2010, 10:55 AM
I further bet the rulling will include that regulation on carry outside the home is allowed - even including harsh application and fee requirements - again making it near impossible to obtain an CCW in CA.

Well, that's a defacto ban. Washington D.C. and Chicago have already tried and look where it got them.


Even if I'm wrong, and we get a total dream win from the court, my hunch is this state will fight it and will never allow any change. Any ground we would obtain would be thru costly and timely court fights.

Yeah, but Washington D.C. tried those same stalling tactics after the D.C. v Heller decision was handed down. If memeory serves me right, the high court told D.C. to cut that sh*t out and obey their ruling. Now-a-days, D.C. residents can finally own functional handguns in their home.

stag1500
03-17-2010, 11:00 AM
Yeah, maybe I'm too cynical but it seems like there is a lot of weasel wording SCOTUS could put in there that would tie us up for another 25 years.

They could have done that in the D.C. v Heller decision two years ago but they didn't. If they would have, it's unlikely that McDonald v Chicago would have gotten to them so quickly.

WokMaster1
03-17-2010, 11:03 AM
It will mean that we now have guns & the law of the land behind us. We will go after any law that is anti 2A & win our rights back. California will regain its place as the best place to live in the world. All the hippies & antis will move to MA.;)

yellowfin
03-17-2010, 11:09 AM
I don't want the antis anywhere. I thought I was safe having them in CA and NY, away from anywhere I'd likely be...look where I ended up.

N6ATF
03-17-2010, 11:18 AM
I don't want the antis anywhere. I thought I was safe having them in CA and NY, away from anywhere I'd likely be...look where I ended up.

Send them on a permanent vacation to Antarctica.

Window_Seat
03-17-2010, 11:26 AM
Fixed it for you. A Sig Sauer P228's standard mag holds 13 rounds, not 10. An AR15 style rifle's standard mag holds 20 or 30 rounds, not 10. :)

Ha ha! This is what I love about Calguns!:cool:

Erik.

N6ATF
03-17-2010, 11:38 AM
49438

POLICESTATE
03-17-2010, 11:45 AM
Yeah, but Washington D.C. tried those same stalling tactics after the D.C. v Heller decision was handed down. If memeory serves me right, the high court told D.C. to cut that sh*t out and obey their ruling. Now-a-days, D.C. residents can finally own functional handguns in their home.

How about carrying guns outside the home? What do DC residents have to do for that?

timdps
03-17-2010, 11:51 AM
Suits already in progress pending the outcome of McDonald
1. CCW via the Sykes v. McGinness lawsuit
2. Handgun Roster (Pena)
3. Nordyke: Could turn into a "sensitive places"/1,000' School Zone (626.9 PC)

Suits waiting in the wings for McDonald to be decided.
4. AWB
5. High cap mags law

The "right people" have said that AWB will happen before high caps.

Down the road
6. .50 BMG rifle ban

Way down the road
7. NFA in CA

Tim

N6ATF
03-17-2010, 11:51 AM
How about carrying guns outside the home? What do DC residents have to do for that?

Wait two...



years (http://wiki.calgunsfoundation.org/index.php/Palmer_v._District_of_Columbia).

POLICESTATE
03-17-2010, 11:52 AM
49438

Would look good on a t-shirt.

Yeah that grinds my gear "high cap magazines" my butt!

Let's see, standard capacity mags for:

Colt 1911 - 7
Beretta 92 - 15
Glock 17 - 17
Sig Sauer P226 - 15
HK USP 45 - 12
Browning Hi Power - 13
Luger 1908 - 8
Walther P38 - 8
Walther PPK - 7

Sure they can write a law calling them high caps, but they're not. They can right a law saying 2+2=5 but it doesn't. It equals 4. They wrote a law requiring that every Japanese American be incarcerated in an internment camp for the duration of WW2 but it doesn't make it right, and it doesn't make it constitutional.

Freedom is the freedom to say 2+2=4 (as Wilson Smith said in 1984)
Freedom is the freedom to call a 30 round AR mag a standard capacity magazine.

Don't let yourself get "persuaded" by our own Ministry of Truth!

jtyner
03-17-2010, 11:54 AM
My bet is nothing - especially not in the near future. I figure the court will rule down the middle with the idea that we have the right to own some weapons, and out right bans on reasonable pistols and rifles will be a no go.

However, they will imply that machine guns and even potentially AW's are not protected and will be subject to regulations - maybe even to the point of a ban like we have in CA.

I further bet the rulling will include that regulation on carry outside the home is allowed - even including harsh application and fee requirements - again making it near impossible to obtain an CCW in CA.

^^^ Hit the nail right on the head.

These are just my thoughts - I hope I'm wrong on this.

Me, too. ;)

Untamed1972
03-17-2010, 11:55 AM
Would look good on a t-shirt.

Yeah that grinds my gear "high cap magazines" my butt!

Let's see, standard capacity mags for:

Colt 1911 - 7
Beretta 92 - 15
Glock 17 - 17
Sig Sauer P226 - 15
HK USP 45 - 12
Browning Hi Power - 13
Luger 1908 - 8
Walther P38 - 8
Walther PPK - 7

Sure they can write a law calling them high caps, but they're not. They can right a law saying 2+2=5 but it doesn't. It equals 4. They wrote a law requiring that every Japanese American be incarcerated in an internment camp for the duration of WW2 but it doesn't make it right, and it doesn't make it constitutional.

Freedom is the freedom to say 2+2=4 (as Wilson Smith said in 1984)
Freedom is the freedom to call a 30 round AR mag a standard capacity magazine.

Don't let yourself get "persuaded" by our own Ministry of Truth!


I think all firearms related LEO exemptions need to be struck down. If my local PD or SO can have them, then so should I.

N6ATF
03-17-2010, 12:00 PM
I think all firearms related LEO exemptions need to be struck down. If my local PD or SO can have them, then so should I.

I don't think any of them have severability clauses, so if you strike down the LEO exemptions under equal protection, the prohibitions should go down too.

gregorylucas
03-17-2010, 12:09 PM
I think the right people will choose the best "incrementalist" approach to knocking down our bad laws in CA and elsewhere. I saw a blimp somewhere that stated:

In order to build a house you have to first dig a hole (that was Heller), then you have to build a skeleton (that's McDonald). Now it's up to all of us to build our house carefully, piece by piece.

-Greg

stag1500
03-17-2010, 1:02 PM
How about carrying guns outside the home? What do DC residents have to do for that?

They have to wait for Palmer v D.C. (case number 1:09-cv-01482-HHK) to be resolved.

Untamed1972
03-17-2010, 1:29 PM
They have to wait for Palmer v D.C. (case number 1:09-cv-01482-HHK) to be resolved.


My question is this.....once incorporation happens, would any court decisions made regarding DC automatically become binding on the states as well?

dustoff31
03-17-2010, 1:53 PM
My question is this.....once incorporation happens, would any court decisions made regarding DC automatically become binding on the states as well?

My understanding is no, they are not automatically applied. Every single law or regulation will have to challenged in court. There is a chance that the state or jurisdiction would just cave in, and say let's change the law, we will loose in court. But probably about the same chance I have of becoming the Pope.

Liberty1
03-17-2010, 1:56 PM
I think all firearms related LEO exemptions need to be struck down. If my local PD or SO can have them, then so should I.

Whenever I talk about mags I use 'normal' capacity to describe 11+ and 'low' capacity for 10-.

How many LEOs/armored car guards want to use 'low' capacity?:)

AndrewMendez
03-17-2010, 2:09 PM
A lot of you guys are way too negative. This is my prediction:

SCOTUS will rule in our favor, and the CGF, CRPA and NRA will bombard California with lawsuit after lawsuit after lawsuit that each and everyone of us needs to financially contribute too. California will put up road block after road block, and we will break thru every single one of them, as unconstitutional. The anti's will eventually get exhausted from losing, which will make the next case easier, However, we will all need to contribute. Gun Owners in general will increase and maybe even help us out, if YOU invite them.

As far as in which order, I am thinking CCW will be one of the first issues brought to the table, but one of the last issues that is finally made legal, which will be expensive as all hell, to obtain, which I think will also later be shot down as unreasonable? Its been said that California may have to first accept other states Permits, before allowing shall issue here. So go get a NV, UT or FL permit!
The handgun ban will be one of the first to go, as well as our 10 round mag restrictions. However, the bullet button issue may take just as long as CCW!

Paragun
03-17-2010, 2:15 PM
So let me get this straight, California is bankrupt but they will still be a HARD*** and waste money on cases that they will lose, right. We know this but just saying.

Instead of being smart (and save needed money) like the cities in Illinois after Heller:
In the months following the Heller decision, handgun bans were repealed in the suburbs of Wilmette,[82] Morton Grove,[83] Evanston,[84] and Winnetka. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gun_laws_in_the_United_States_(by_state)#Illinois

Why are there so many idiots in office in California!:biggrinjester:

CHOPCHOP
03-17-2010, 2:22 PM
Man I can't wait for the roster to be nullified.

ErikTheRed
03-17-2010, 3:10 PM
Can you get a NV carry permit without being a resident of NV?

jammer2k
03-17-2010, 3:17 PM
I can tell you exactly what will happen. The SCOTUS will rule in our favor and some idiot(s) will immediately start doing illegal things like removing their bullet button from the AR's in CA and get arrested (just one example).

As has been stated before the lawsuits will begin, hopefully the CA AW ban and handgun roster will be first in line.

AndrewMendez
03-17-2010, 8:40 PM
Can you get a NV carry permit without being a resident of NV?

Yes, but you have to take the training in NV with live fire training.

1911su16b870
03-17-2010, 8:52 PM
Looking into my crystal ball...

Post incorporation the roster AW laws should be tossed. Heller and McDonald should be clear you can not ban a firearm in your home (semi-auto stuff the NFA stuff will remain). Bearing arms will be allowed (open or CCW) except in sensitive areas depending on each state. The magazine limit of 10 rounds will need future 14th legal action to toss...

Window_Seat
03-17-2010, 9:39 PM
I like Andrew's optimism, which is my way of thinking as well, but we also need to not let our guards down by going in like an NFL team with an 18-0 record going into the SuperBowl.

Erik.

hoffmang
03-17-2010, 10:56 PM
The pessimist in this thread are amusingly incorrect.

Most everything the optimists are saying is correct. However, we have at least one pre-McDonald surprise.

-Gene

Lone_Gunman
03-17-2010, 11:48 PM
Oooh oooooh I love suprises.

Texas Boy
03-18-2010, 12:51 AM
Oh boy! Can't wait to see the surprise!

Here is my (non lawyer) take on the logical sequence:

1. Roster - this is low hanging fruit, DC's copy of the CA roster was already struck down, so this should be relatively quick and easy. It will build momentum and help line up the legal dominoes for future cases (like the AWB). I think this could happen in 2010 (yes, this year).

2. Nordyke - not only has this been in the system forever, it will be an important case to establish 2A rights outside the home. This will be key in the CCW case and may go all the way to SCOTUS. If so, it will be a summer 2011 decision.

3. CCW - this is really the big one. With the right wording on McDonald and Nordyke it should be straight forward, but expect CA to go kicking and screaming the whole way. Once we have this, we really do have a meaningful 2A right here in CA. I expect 2012 before this happens.

4. AWB - again, should be a simple, logical argument, but expect CA to kick and scream and drag it out as long as possible. Expect the defense to throw up lots of emotion and drama, and to fail. Prob 2012 for this, but it could jump ahead of the CCW case (in time line, not importance).

Aside from the local ordinances that will have to be taken down and various little quirks in state laws that might get fixed, I'm not really sure how much further it will go. Specifically -

10 round mag limit - as much as I want to see this go, I could see it upheld as a "reasonable restriction" and the SCOTUS possibly even refusing to hear it. That doesn't mean we shouldn't try to defeat it, but we will have to see what is in the text of the prior rulings to determine how viable this may be. Might be attacked via an equal protection argument. LE and other privileged individuals are allowed standard capacity mags, just not common folk.

10 day wait - again, might be deemed reasonable and the SCOTUS might stay out of it.

NFA items in CA - oddly I have a little more optimism for this one. But it is way down the list.

CDFingers
03-18-2010, 4:53 AM
There are several people on this thread who I think have it right, that individual laws will need to be challenged each one in its turn if McDonald passes in favor of incorporation against the states of the BOR.

One thing that has not been mentioned is that, after McDonald, no new gun laws will be passed in CA. That certainly is good news.

I predict, however, in agreement with at least one poster, that "reasonable" regulations will be allowed, and these will mysteriously put dollars in the pockets of the CA Treasury. Surprise, the bad kind.

CDFingers

CalNRA
03-18-2010, 5:11 AM
antis deported to Cuba.









I just would like to see that. What?

Window_Seat
03-18-2010, 7:11 AM
The pessimist in this thread are amusingly incorrect.

Most everything the optimists are saying is correct. However, we have at least one pre-McDonald surprise.

-Gene

Please just tell us when we can open up the box with the gift wrap.:taz:

Erik.

Kharn
03-18-2010, 8:58 AM
Please just tell us when we can open up the box with the gift wrap.:taz:

Erik.The last Thursday in June.

AndrewMendez
03-18-2010, 9:14 AM
The pessimist in this thread are amusingly incorrect.

Most everything the optimists are saying is correct. However, we have at least one pre-McDonald surprise.

-Gene

SCORE!!!!!
TAKE THAT DEBBIE DOWNERS!

timdps
03-18-2010, 10:27 AM
10 round mag limit - snip. Might be attacked via an equal protection argument. LE and other privileged individuals are allowed standard capacity mags, just not common folk.


Not to mention most of the rest of the country...

Tim