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View Full Version : What if no shall issue and no LOC?


snobord99
01-07-2010, 5:27 PM
Ok, I'm getting tired of everyone basically assuming that shall issue CCW or LOC will happen post-McDonald so I'm going to play devil's advocate and go the other direction. Largely because I'm not so sure it's the slam dunk that everyone here seems to think it is* but also because I just want to know how people would or think they would react.

Assume McDonald incorporates the 2nd. Now, if (I can't emphasize this enough) Sykes and whatever else comes after goes down and there's no CCW and no LOC, what will you do? In other words, 2A gets incorporated and nothing really changes, SCOTUS decides that 2A's already protected enough in CA, what do you, personally, do?

I'm not wondering what will CGF or the NRA do. I want to know would you move, rebel, etc...?

*Not to say I don't think it will happen. I'm just saying it's not, by any means, "guaranteed."

And mods, please feel free to move this if this isn't the appropriate forum.

kf6tac
01-07-2010, 5:36 PM
Stay put and support whatever NRA and CGF do next. Trying to find a new job right now in this market is a losing proposition, and my job is here in CA.

navyinrwanda
01-07-2010, 5:44 PM
Assume McDonald incorporates the 2nd. Now, if (I can't emphasize this enough) Sykes and whatever else comes after goes down and there's no CCW and no LOC, what will you do? In other words, 2A gets incorporated and nothing really changes, SCOTUS decides that 2A's already protected enough in CA, what do you, personally, do?
Might a hypothetical with a more constricted fact set produce a more focused debate? Incorporation would very likely affect many statues and regulations, not only here in California but nationwide, even if later carry litigation was unsuccessful.

In other words, how would individuals react if the Supreme Court decided that there was no right to bear arms outside of one's home?

GrizzlyGuy
01-07-2010, 5:48 PM
Welcome to the skeptics club (http://www.calguns.net/calgunforum/showthread.php?p=3598746#post3598746), snobord. Maybe you, me and KC can bring some beer out to a chicken farm and count a few unhatched eggs. :D

My wife and I are already intending to move out of the state and are now trying to find the right property to move to. This may take a while, my wife is real picky. :rolleyes:

We'd be doing that even if CA allowed loaded machine guns to be carried openly or concealed without a permit. For us it's more about the tax laws, general infringements on liberty (including the gun laws) and we think it would be wise to leave before the situation deteriorates further. The demographic and political trends suggest to us that further overall deterioration is likely, even if the gun laws get better as many expect.

BKinzey
01-07-2010, 5:51 PM
Punt?

KylaGWolf
01-07-2010, 7:18 PM
About the only thing that would get me to leave California is the job market not getting any better and being able to find work in another state. Otherwise I will stay here and continue to fight for my rights right along side CGF and NRA.

bodger
01-07-2010, 7:28 PM
I'm not all that optimistic. Incorporation is a good thing, but apparently doesn't mean diddly without court battles that could drag on for years.

Shall issue, LOC, no BB and no ten round mags is what I will consider good progress.

Five years? And what will come out of Sac in the meantime? AB962 apparently flies directly into the face of interstate commerce, but it passed and got signed into law.
What else do they have up their sleeves that will take years and lots of dough to untangle?

cbn620
01-07-2010, 7:43 PM
I'm not all that optimistic. Incorporation is a good thing, but apparently doesn't mean diddly without court battles that could drag on for years.

Shall issue, LOC, no BB and no ten round mags is what I will consider good progress.

Five years? And what will come out of Sac in the meantime? AB962 apparently flies directly into the face of interstate commerce, but it passed and got signed into law.
What else do they have up their sleeves that will take years and lots of dough to untangle?

No offense intended man, but I think what you describe is far better than "good progress." Realistically good progress is one or two of those goals in the near future. Realistically, for any problem this nation faces in regards to any issue, not even a successful full scale revolutionary war or some other such alternative fantasy will dig our country out of the mess it is in any faster than fighting it out in court. And remember, it's not just California that's in trouble...you won't find any place that's not duking it out over something, and in all those places they face the same problem: waiting.

I'm not saying you have to be patient or optimistic, but it would probably do us all well to try and be more so. Because the sad fact of the matter is, this country is facing a crisis in every regard, let alone 2A rights, and the only thing that's going to solve it is a whole lot of effort, and even more, a whole load of time. There is no other solution. The opposition in court and in legislature is being mounted as rapidly as it possibly can, and the general populace is only going to become more informed and take control over the issues of their day with education, which takes time.

Realizing this, I see no reason to leave this state, this country, or do anything else more dramatic than to sit and wait and contribute service and activism to "the right people" as often as it is needed and then some. There really is virtually no other solution, no magic trick, no expedient route to our goal (in relative terms).

Window_Seat
01-07-2010, 7:47 PM
My attitude is about the same here. It's not just about GRs, it's much more than that, especially the tax laws, general infringements, and even if MGs were legal W/O a permit, we would still be treated like (pre-edited) for exercising that right. Trucking is another big issue for me here as well, and this is an industry that is horribly unprotected, and it's downright hated with a passion here, much more in this state than in any other (on this side of the MS River).

Will all rights in CA ever be protected? I say yes. Will they be protected because the CA Government wants it that way? Hell no, never.

Erik.

Welcome to the skeptics club (http://www.calguns.net/calgunforum/showthread.php?p=3598746#post3598746), snobord. Maybe you, me and KC can bring some beer out to a chicken farm and count a few unhatched eggs. :D

My wife and I are already intending to move out of the state and are now trying to find the right property to move to. This may take a while, my wife is real picky. :rolleyes:

We'd be doing that even if CA allowed loaded machine guns to be carried openly or concealed without a permit. For us it's more about the tax laws, general infringements on liberty (including the gun laws) and we think it would be wise to leave before the situation deteriorates further. The demographic and political trends suggest to us that further overall deterioration is likely, even if the gun laws get better as many expect.

Kharn
01-07-2010, 8:25 PM
If you check the respondent's brief and all of their amici, you'll note they only cite cases from the 1800s talking about how concealed carry can be banned. Banning open carry (unloaded open carry is a sick CA joke and shouldnt be considered carrying) is a modern invention that will not pass the historical smell test.

bigcalidave
01-07-2010, 8:43 PM
I'm still down to fight for the rest of you though :D

If you want to leave, just come up here. We could use some more civilized people!!!

snobord99
01-07-2010, 9:29 PM
In other words, how would individuals react if the Supreme Court decided that there was no right to bear arms outside of one's home?

More or less what I'm saying. I basically mean, incorporation comes and SCOTUS decides though a line of cases that where we are right now is perfectly Constitutional. In other words, things look more or less exactly the same in 5 or 10 years except that there's a SCOTUS stamp of approval.

I bring this up because several people here talk like they're ready to start a revolution. I'm just wondering how many people are serious and how many are just blowing steam.

snobord99
01-07-2010, 9:32 PM
Welcome to the skeptics club (http://www.calguns.net/calgunforum/showthread.php?p=3598746#post3598746), snobord. Maybe you, me and KC can bring some beer out to a chicken farm and count a few unhatched eggs. :D

Haha, I don't think I have the time or patience to count that many eggs.

My wife and I are already intending to move out of the state and are now trying to find the right property to move to. This may take a while, my wife is real picky. :rolleyes:

So...your wife is a woman? ;)

snobord99
01-07-2010, 9:33 PM
If you check the respondent's brief and all of their amici, you'll note they only cite cases from the 1800s talking about how concealed carry can be banned. Banning open carry (unloaded open carry is a sick CA joke and shouldnt be considered carrying) is a modern invention that will not pass the historical smell test.

Not trying to start a debate on this. There are plenty of threads for that already. I'm just curious how people would react in this hypothetical situation.

kcbrown
01-07-2010, 9:46 PM
Welcome to the skeptics club (http://www.calguns.net/calgunforum/showthread.php?p=3598746#post3598746), snobord. Maybe you, me and KC can bring some beer out to a chicken farm and count a few unhatched eggs. :D

My wife and I are already intending to move out of the state and are now trying to find the right property to move to. This may take a while, my wife is real picky. :rolleyes:


I'm likely to stay and try to help out in the fight as best as I can.

I must say, though, that as skeptical as I am, I don't expect the Supreme Court to rule that the current situation is perfectly fine. I certainly can't rule that possibility out, however.



We'd be doing that even if CA allowed loaded machine guns to be carried openly or concealed without a permit. For us it's more about the tax laws, general infringements on liberty (including the gun laws) and we think it would be wise to leave before the situation deteriorates further. The demographic and political trends suggest to us that further overall deterioration is likely, even if the gun laws get better as many expect.

On the other hand, if things get bad enough with respect to overall liberty, then I'll leave as well. I won't be happy about it at all, though. There's a lot to like about this place.

bulgron
01-07-2010, 11:22 PM
Not trying to start a debate on this. There are plenty of threads for that already. I'm just curious how people would react in this hypothetical situation.

I would ramp up my efforts to move out of California. This is not easy because my wife absolutely loves living here.

navyinrwanda
01-08-2010, 12:46 AM
I bring this up because several people here talk like they're ready to start a revolution. I'm just wondering how many people are serious and how many are just blowing steam.
I'm wondering, too.

Many seem to think they'll be able to open carry loaded without any permit or license whatsoever. In the near future.

Electricboy
01-08-2010, 12:54 AM
I like Northern California and i abalone dive. So i will stay and fight. And yes i already have my CCW.

bodger
01-08-2010, 7:54 AM
No offense intended man, but I think what you describe is far better than "good progress." Realistically good progress is one or two of those goals in the near future. Realistically, for any problem this nation faces in regards to any issue, not even a successful full scale revolutionary war or some other such alternative fantasy will dig our country out of the mess it is in any faster than fighting it out in court. And remember, it's not just California that's in trouble...you won't find any place that's not duking it out over something, and in all those places they face the same problem: waiting.

I'm not saying you have to be patient or optimistic, but it would probably do us all well to try and be more so. Because the sad fact of the matter is, this country is facing a crisis in every regard, let alone 2A rights, and the only thing that's going to solve it is a whole lot of effort, and even more, a whole load of time. There is no other solution. The opposition in court and in legislature is being mounted as rapidly as it possibly can, and the general populace is only going to become more informed and take control over the issues of their day with education, which takes time.

Realizing this, I see no reason to leave this state, this country, or do anything else more dramatic than to sit and wait and contribute service and activism to "the right people" as often as it is needed and then some. There really is virtually no other solution, no magic trick, no expedient route to our goal (in relative terms).

No offense taken. I see both sides of the argument and reason for optimism and skepticism both. And I totally agree, anywhere you go somebody is duking it out and waiting for a favorable result on something.

But...when I am alone in an area that has a high crime rate, and it's 5:30 in the morning and I have $20K worth of tools in my truck, I truly resent the fact that the powers that be in this state and the municipality in which I live have decided that I am not eligible to exercise the right to arm myself to protect my life and my property in that situation.

And there are many other reasons that don't have anything to do with gun laws that have me eyeballing the freeway outta here. When you own a small business in CA, you have a target on your back for the state to zero in on to see how much of your profit they can suck out of you before you wise up and leave.

Yeah, it's January and the sun is shining and I can work outside today in a t-shirt. The price for that is becoming too steep.

I'm still down to fight for the rest of you though :D

If you want to leave, just come up here. We could use some more civilized people!!!

I'm pretty civilized. How are the general contractors doing up there? Is anyone building anything? Any money to be made in remodeling?
I've often considered the alternative of moving out of LA to a freer county rather than move to a free state.

guayuque
01-08-2010, 8:17 AM
I'm not all that optimistic. Incorporation is a good thing, but apparently doesn't mean diddly without court battles that could drag on for years.

Shall issue, LOC, no BB and no ten round mags is what I will consider good progress.

Five years? And what will come out of Sac in the meantime? AB962 apparently flies directly into the face of interstate commerce, but it passed and got signed into law.
What else do they have up their sleeves that will take years and lots of dough to untangle?

Actually, it quite easily passes the rational basis test for interstate commerce.

But the fact is that even if the decision is grand, I don't think it will do much since Heller states that many "long standing" and "sensitive" regulations were not being questions. I think the best shot is that if we do have incoporation that opens the door for attack on discreationary denials of CCW.

kcbrown
01-08-2010, 11:00 AM
My biggest concern is that RKBA will wind up being a right in name only.

That is, I'm concerned that it'll be found that you have a right to bear arms, but that "reasonable restrictions" are allowed, and the definition of "reasonable" winds up being "reasonable" to the anti-gunners and unreasonable to anyone who really wishes to protect themselves. For instance, I can easily see it being decided as "reasonable" to restrict all carry within 2000 feet of a school's boundaries.

How do we defend against that?

hoffmang
01-08-2010, 4:43 PM
1. I have almost limitless confidence in the ineptitude of the District of Columbia. I leave it to the reader to figure out why that makes me a skeptic of snobord's skepticism.

2. If bear doesn't end up meaning "carry a functional firearm including handgun" we have two different Constitutions that can be amended. Remember that the rest of gun rights is only going to get better, and that in that environment, those sorts of referenda are likely to be an option. Also, don't forget about the back door of reciprocity.

-Gene

M. D. Van Norman
01-08-2010, 8:58 PM
This is a revolution, and there will be revolutionary action if conventional means fail. The unloaded open carriers are a perfect early example.

cbn620
01-09-2010, 12:39 AM
Not trying to start a debate on this. There are plenty of threads for that already. I'm just curious how people would react in this hypothetical situation.

So people give you some compelling evidence as to why our worst nightmare is not going to occur, and that's not enough to reason with? It seems to me that you're trying to coax individuals into talking foolishness about revolution. I don't consider that "trolling" but many here would. I appreciate hypothetical scenarios as much as the next wannabe intellectual but if the entire purpose of this discussion is another "how much will we put up with until we revolt?" kind of topic, or even worse a backhanded way of trying to question the ethics of some imaginary group of people on these boards who you see as chairborne revolutionaries, then I don't want any part of the discussion.

This doesn't seem like pure mental masturbation to me, it seems like you are trying to get controversial statements out of people for its own sake. I apologize if I am wrong, but this post of yours strikes me oddly.

bigcalidave
01-09-2010, 2:20 AM
I'm pretty civilized. How are the general contractors doing up there? Is anyone building anything? Any money to be made in remodeling?
I've often considered the alternative of moving out of LA to a freer county rather than move to a free state.

I was down in San diego a few months ago, drove down. I remember my trip back up through LA on a saturday afternoon, stuck in 15 mph traffic from san diego to the grapevine.

NOTHING could make me live there again.

Up here, the air is clean, it's minutes from everything you could want to do "outdoors", and everything is CHEAP. So maybe you couldn't get better / more work than you have in LA county. But when you buy a big house with acreage for a quarter of what it would cost you down there, and compare the costs of food / stuff.... Well it's just worth it.

OleCuss
01-09-2010, 1:12 PM
I'm no legal expert so I'm going with the confidence displayed by those who have closely followed the case, understand the issues and are actually making it happen. Oh, and I also thank them!

So far as leaving California? The idea is attractive and I may do so in a few years - but the flip side is that we also have a duty to defend the rights of our fellow citizens here in this state. If we all leave then those who remain will be abandoned to oppression and we will be guilty.

And one must also remember that California tends to start legal trends - so if we abandon California to the anti-freedom types, we'll start to see the same lack of freedom creep into our new location as well. No, unless other factors are compelling, we need to consider staying and fighting the infestation at its source.

artherd
01-09-2010, 6:58 PM
I like skeptics. They make good supporters after I win.

snobord99
01-09-2010, 7:08 PM
So people give you some compelling evidence as to why our worst nightmare is not going to occur, and that's not enough to reason with? It seems to me that you're trying to coax individuals into talking foolishness about revolution. I don't consider that "trolling" but many here would. I appreciate hypothetical scenarios as much as the next wannabe intellectual but if the entire purpose of this discussion is another "how much will we put up with until we revolt?" kind of topic, or even worse a backhanded way of trying to question the ethics of some imaginary group of people on these boards who you see as chairborne revolutionaries, then I don't want any part of the discussion.

This doesn't seem like pure mental masturbation to me, it seems like you are trying to get controversial statements out of people for its own sake. I apologize if I am wrong, but this post of yours strikes me oddly.

That's fair, but there's a difference between a discussion of law and legal precedent and a question of how would one react to particular law. I'm not trolling, I don't think anyone else has indicated that they see it that way. I'm trying to keep the discussion on point and, like I said, the legal discussion already exists. If you feel that is trolling, I don't know what to tell you besides feel free not to respond.

snobord99
01-09-2010, 7:08 PM
I like skeptics. They make good supporters after I win.

Haha, not saying I don't think it'll happen. Just saying it's not a slam dunk ;).

artherd
01-09-2010, 8:23 PM
No, it's more like a post-dunk layup :D