Time to draw the line

[Charliegone]

I am never going to move and will I never move to please those that would take our rights away. That is EXACTLY what they want. They want us out.:mad:

So I am with you on this. I will not leave. I will stay fight for what is right.

[shopkeep]

That's why everyone on this forum should be working hard at preparing to collect AS MANY signatures as possible for RKBA. Even if it's just 30 or 50 it's still going to help! And if RKBA fails... then I'll launch the alternative strategy which I discussed earlier this weekend.

[shopkeep]

I admit that I'm a rather newer member to this forum, although certainly not a newer member to the 2nd Amendment scene in California. I don't know about the rest of you guys, but I get sick of hearing "I'm going to move out of state" and "That will never happen!". These are the words of people who don't have what it takes to protect our rights.

Are you guys who are saying this telling me you don't have the will and resolve that the anti-gun movement has in California? If so, that certainly explains why were are at this point today. It took over TEN YEARS to get SB-23 on the books and there was total and complete resolve to get it on the books. It started way back in 1988 or so when they got work started on Roberti-Roos. Then came the "look alike" guns with different names. Then in 1998 an SB-23 type bill was vetoed by Pete Wilson.

Five years ago, I was at the DOJ hearing on SB-23... when other people were saying "I'm moving away" or "We can't fight". Well my friends there is no "can't" there is only "will" or "won't". It's time to stop being into two camps: Those who want to enjoy their rights while they have them but won't fight to keep them, and those who are persistant and strong enough to fight.

Hell I thought for a while that fighting the anti-gun movement was futile, but it's NOT. I refuse to believe that there will come a day when I won't keep fighting and so should you. Once we give up, we give up our rights. More than that we give up our home!!!

If you're sitting down not doing anything then you're already letting them tell you what guns you can have! Are you now going to let them tell you where you CAN LIVE?

[jnojr]

And if RKBA fails... then I'll launch the alternative strategy which I discussed earlier this weekend.

What alternate strategy is that? I must've missed it...

[Mike Searson]

I used to feel that way.

To be honest, I'm not a CA native.

I first came to this State 20 or so years ago as a 17 year-old Marine...I thought it was the greatest place on earth! No helmet laws for motorcycles, beautiful women everywhere, and you could go shooting in the desert, buy AKs, ARs, etc!

I ended up leaving California in the early 90's and lived in another part of the country where Gun Rights were even better: CCW, Class 3, etc.

I returned here in 1997 and watched it all slide downhill. Whether it's the Nanny State laws concerning what your rifle looks like, to inane drop tests designed by metrosexual liberals that gain their handgun knowledge from watching reruns of Miami Vice, to the petty tyrant system for disbursment of CCWs...this state's gun laws are a mess.

When your elected officials are a cabal of gerrymandered democrat thugs and bullies...this is what you get.

I've donated money to politicians, given free firearms training classes to new people, called, written, and spoke in person to my elected officials...all it's gotten me is heartburn, stress, and an undying hatred for liberal democrats.

So what do you do? act like the king in Monty Python and the Holy Grail and keep building your castles in a swamp?

Nope.

I took perata's advice.
I moved.
Voted with my feet.
Sold my homes, land, and transferred my job. All the money I used to pay in property taxes/vehicle registration/ state income tax/ etc will now be spent in my new home state which may not be 100% perfect...but it's good enough for me.

The only alternative you guys have left in reality is to disregard the illegal laws they have forced upon you. I strongly considered it...but decided to just move to a state where the government actually respects the US Constitution.

Only other hope may be a SCOTUS Decision on the Second Amendment.

It's a sad day when the elected officials of a state believe convicted child molesters and sex offenders are a protected class and law abiding gun owners are the problem.

Good luck with your endeavors. It's a long tough road!

[mblat]

Sold my homes, land, and transferred my job. All the money I used to pay in property taxes/vehicle registration/ state income tax/ etc will now be spent in my new home state which may not be 100% perfect...but it's good enough for me.

I got bad news for you. Nevada is way too close to PRK. And a lot of damn Californians moving there.... for retairement for example. So whatever is going on here is affecting you.
So one can't just move to Nevada ( and by the way, I am very seriosly considering moving there ) let PRK slide into gutter and hope to be left along. It is BIG gutter and smell and infectation will eventualy get to you too.

In an way it already does - traffic in Vegas is mess, taxes are on a rise, Clark county regulary votes democratic.... If you think Nevada Democrat is different from Californi one... or well that is nice thing to belive in, but is it realistic?

[Mike Searson]

Sold my homes, land, and transferred my job. All the money I used to pay in property taxes/vehicle registration/ state income tax/ etc will now be spent in my new home state which may not be 100% perfect...but it's good enough for me.

I got bad news for you. Nevada is way too close to PRK. And a lot of damn Californians moving there.... for retairement for example. So whatever is going on here is affecting you.
So one can't just move to Nevada ( and by the way, I am very seriosly considering moving there ) let PRK slide into gutter and hope to be left along. It is BIG gutter and smell and infectation will eventualy get to you too.

In an way it already does - traffic in Vegas is mess, taxes are on a rise, Clark county regulary votes democratic.... If you think Nevada Democrat is different from Californi one... or well that is nice thing to belive in, but is it realistic?


I would not live in Vegas/Clark if you paid me!

Yeah...Califoria and Nevada are so much alike...can you and your buddy trade 1911's without going through a dealer? Nope
Can you go to a gunshop...buy a firearm and walk out with your lawfully owned personal property on the same day? Nope.
Can you own a full auto uzi? Didn't think so
How about a Semi automatic replica of an Uzi? Keep wishing.

I give a crap less how they vote on other stuff...I'm a gunny, plain and simple...I AM A SINGLE ISSUE VOTER (Second Amendment)!

As for the democrat comparison...Sen Harry Reid (D) escalated on behalf of a buddy of mine to get his Class 3 paperwork completed in a timely manner.
When fineswine, boxer, or one of your dems does the same...I'll consider your point valid.

Oh yeah we also have RKBA in our state constitution.
:)

You guys have good weather, though.

[bwiese]

I got bad news for you. Nevada is way too close to PRK. And a lot of damn Californians moving there.... for retairement for example. So whatever is going on here is affecting you. So one can't just move to Nevada ( and by the way, I am very seriosly considering moving there ) let PRK slide into gutter and hope to be left along. It is BIG gutter and smell and infectation will eventualy get to you too.

It appears to me the bulk of folks moving to NV fall into three general types :

retirees from higher-cost-of-living areas and states w/income taxes;
folks getting vacation homes and 'moving' on paper for tax reasons;
basic lower-wage labor supply for casino/entertainment industry


A relatively small number, like Mike S. above, will be moving for personal+professional reasons.

The first two on my list - even if composed largely of Californians - will likely not shape or distort NV gun policy too much. They are, after all, fleeing California, and prob don't hail from urban demographic anyway - the cradle of CA gun control.

The latter group (lower-wage workers moving to NV) can have some effect - these people usu vote Democrat, and like other urban blocs, have proven themselves subject to being led around by the nose by antigunners. This will primarily be concentrated in Clark County (LV metro area).

Reno, by contrast, is getting lotsa retirement folks and vacation home folks.

BTW: Awhile back, I read that it was still possible in Vegas for a couple, both working for casinos in line jobs, to purchase a tolerable home in a decent neighborhood. The LV market may have overheated to reduce that but it'll come back down a bit.


Bill Wiese
San Jose

[PanzerAce]

as a CA native, I dont intend on moving out unless it becomes truly obvious that Kali is a lost cause (state hand gun ban, etc). At that point, I would probaly get out as fast as possible. Go someplace like Arizona or Wyoming where they actually have heard of the 2nd amendment.

[mblat]

It appears to me the bulk of folks moving to NV fall into three general types :

retirees from higher-cost-of-living areas and states w/income taxes;
folks getting vacation homes and 'moving' on paper for tax reasons;
basic lower-wage labor supply for casino/entertainment industry


The first two on my list - even if composed largely of Californians - will likely not shape or distort NV gun policy too much. They are, after all, fleeing California, and prob don't hail from urban demographic anyway - the cradle of CA gun control.



I m wondering why do feel that retirees ( and I do think they are the biggest "emigrant" group from California to Nevada) won't change Nevada politics? After all seniors do tend to vote more democratic, want more goverment services etc? Or I am wrong about it?

[PanzerAce]

In my experience, all the retirees really want is to keep getting their social security checks (even the rich ones).

[shopkeep]

Due to the imminent Real Estate market crash that will inevitably lead to most of Urban California's population being up to their eyeballs in debt, and an HUGE number of them unemployeed (notice how these days how everyone and their whole family is a loan officer or Realtor?), I expect most of the anti-gun folk in San Francisco and LA to have their days numbered.

When people are broke and unemployed the finger is quick to point at those in office. Pretty soon people will mostly be interested in money issues and when gun issues and such take a back seat role, this will be our moment of opportunity.

I hate to quote a failed politician but Swartzenegger said there were two things neccessary for success... Attitude and Persistance.

We just need to be persistant, always there, always resisting. Even when the resistance seems utterly futile we must continue the resistance. Remember as I've said before the anti-gun crowd had to be persistant for well over 10 years to get SB-23 and AB-15 passed.

[bwiese]

Your comment about SF specifically is unfounded. Most of those people are renters. Relatively few homeowners in SF, kinda like NYC. The renters form a HUGE voting bloc, and have foisted rent control on SF.

Perhaps a bit of RE crash in spread out LA, or areas that are not building constrained.

In the SF Bay area (incl San Jose, E. Bay, etc) natural population growth, improving economy, plus people moving in, combine to create more demand over time.

Will there be a small drop in valuations in some homes for a short term? Yeah.
Could there be a 5% price drop? On some properties, esp w/poor schools.
Will there continue to be 20% year-on-year appreciation? Nope.

Lotsa folks here are realtors or loan agents just because they can profit from churn in the market. Many of those folks right now are not making a great living anyway and will exit these jobs soon; many of these were former dot-commers that had no tech skills and couldn't make it thru 2001 spring recession.

Let's use me for an example. I have a 2br, 2.5ba + 2 car 1100sq ft San Jose townhome I bought new in mid-2002 for $399k. Over 3 years it's jumped to $580K-ish. That's about 13% year-on-year growth (approx, not necessarily CAGR). Things are a bit slow due to winter and sales take 1 mo instead of 9 days.

Will it go up next year? Perhaps, but it could drop $25K too. No big thing, I'm not moving anywhere. Long term it's a good value as it's a nice area, on a hill, great commute location. When the new elem. school is built nearby, it'll raise prices since those students will be from achieving families instead of from those who regard school as a babysitter.

Discussion of raw R.E sq footage numbers or price is not always 100% relevant - if you feel you can go walking in the neighborhood at night, schools are better than others, etc. than these are all value-makers. People fight to pay $1m for a crappy ranch house in Palo Alto or Cupertino since the schools there have good teachers and high achieving students and low(er) crime, and your neighbor may have 10 patents.

In SF Bay Area new building is constrained. Very few new homes (single family homes, condos, townhomes or even apts) are being built, often due to 'greenline' and density/traffic issues. Cities are already backing off residential bldg plans because there's not enough area for business to grow - predictions are that lotsa office space that emptied after dot-bomb in 2000-2001 will be filled by 2008-2009.

The people that stay here have already figured out how to be more flexible and productive than the ones that had to move out. I've had 3 jobs since I bought my house and fully expect to have another 10-12 jobs before I retire. I have to learn something new all the time, that's just the way it is: union folks just don't get it.

Bill Wiese
San Jose

[PanzerAce]

Due to the imminent Real Estate market crash that will inevitably lead to most of Urban California's population being up to their eyeballs in debt, and an HUGE number of them unemployeed (notice how these days how everyone and their whole family is a loan officer or Realtor?), I expect most of the anti-gun folk in San Francisco and LA to have their days numbered.


um, what RE crash? people said when my parents bought a house in the South bay that they were paying to much for it. and ever since then, people have been predicting that the market will crash. That was 27 (I think) years ago. Now, that SAME house, with only minor landscaping, is worth (on a good day) about 1.5 mil. on a bad day, its worth about 1.4 mil. So untill i actually see prices drop through the floor, Ill assume that the market will continue the way it has. Oh, and how does high unemployment follow from RE crash? the realtors would actually make a killing on selling houses once they crash, and people always need loans....

[bwiese]

I m wondering why do feel that retirees (and I do think they are the biggest "emigrant" group from California to Nevada) won't change Nevada politics? After all seniors do tend to vote more democratic, want more goverment services etc? Or I am wrong about it?

Not necessarily. They likely had property and have swapped/acquired new property. Many will be living on investments - not pensions! - and thus are sensitive to governmental crapola and taxes. After all, they are fleeing income taxes, not just cost of living: after all, their houses are paid for and Prop 13 protects them from massive prop tax increases.

Also, remember these are the proactive folks with the financial and mental capability to change their life and move instead of *****ing & moaning, which means they feel less need for Big Momma and her Free Cookies.

It may be true there are a fair amount of democrats/"centrists" in this demographic but any gun control agenda is way at the bottom of their list of important things.

This applies even here in CA: gun control ranks way below abortion ("choice") in political sensitivities of centrist/swing voters and moderate Repubs (8th to 10th for gun control, vs. 1st-2nd items for abortion). If a Democrat is a single-issue voter, it likely regards abortion; otherwise he's a combination- issue voter and while he may desire gun control there are many other things he's supporting or opposing and that are at a higher level of importance.

This really says a few key things about CA politics today:

The abortion/choice question is closed in CA. Except for a few regional senate & assembly seats, antiabortion stance is a losing proposition statewide. Consider Dan Lungren's immolation during his run for governor against Gray Davis - he scared all the crossover and middle-of-road voters away. These issues are less applicable -but do have some force - for state offices like Insurance Commissioner, Controller, etc. They are and will continue to be important for positions like Lt Gov, Atty General and Sec'y of State.


These numbers indicate a relatively conservative person, at least fiscally, who takes no stance on or in fact supports pro-"choice" agenda, can win an election - regardless of his being pro-gun. And at that point, pro-gun helps more than hinders. [If Tom McClintock loosened up on this - and got a bit of image help - he might have a chance - but only if he came out at least marginally prochoice or stated he'd not do anything in that field.]


Anti-"choice" Christian conservatives dominate Republican politics at the primary stage. Lately they manage to get primary winners that can't make it in statewide elections.


From these items it can thus be directly inferred that California's Christian conservatives are anti-gun (and pro-higher taxes), no matter what they say. It's simply end results that count: if you purely look at cause & effect, the guys the Christian fundamentalists keep putting up don't have a chance of winning anymore in CA, and an antigun democrat wins against them in general election.




Bill Wiese
San Jose

[shopkeep]

Now that statement is something I truely agree with. And the dems know it too... look at how instead of spending most of the campaign money in the general election, Davis went after the moderate Republicans in the preimary thus assuring himself an easy opponent to run against.

[jnojr]

um, what RE crash? people said when my parents bought a house in the South bay that they were paying to much for it. and ever since then, people have been predicting that the market will crash. That was 27 (I think) years ago.

There's been two crashes since then, IIRC. If you're happy in your house and can afford the mortgage, a crash doesn't affect you. Real estate always picks up over the long run. But we have had periods of time in which values have dropped 20% within a year, and then took a couple of years to make up the difference. And we have never seen a runup like we did 2000-2004 Prices that double in 4 years can drop back by half again.

But the real estate market isn't going to affect California gun politics. As long as we have a Legislature that gets to draw up its own boundaries, and so seats never change hands, nothing is going to improve.

[shopkeep]

And here I thought Antioch was in the Bay Area, not Sacramento County LOL! Have you seen how silly the lines are for Sacramento county?