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Macadelic4
11-03-2009, 9:45 AM
In the US., any of us can get a license to trade securities, commodities futures, options, etc. We can also subscribe to real-time information about the values of these investment vehicles, and there is usually some index associated with the products.

Most futures, however, are based on agricultural and industrial products. Does anyone know why ammo doesn't (or couldn't) have some sort of similar authoritative index that is updated in real-time? Is there some sort of legal red tape that the SEC has put up, or did the SEC just decide that ammo contracts/ammo market value aren't interesting enough to trade/track?

BTW, I found that Ayoob mentions this here (http://www.backwoodshome.com/articles2/ayoob108.html).

paul0660
11-03-2009, 9:51 AM
There are many varieties of ammo; one would have to be decided on. 7.62x25 futures would be much different than .380

freakshow10mm
11-03-2009, 9:53 AM
Ammunition is never an investment in the traditional sense.

caoboy
11-03-2009, 11:07 AM
Ammunition is never an investment in the traditional sense.

It is when you buy at walmart for dirt cheap, and sell on CG or GB for 2-3 times as much.

bohoki
11-03-2009, 11:08 AM
ammo is not fungible like say bacon or orange juice

too many different "bullets" various hollow points fmj shapes plated copper,and the "lead boolets"

then there are different loading hot vs mild

its a little bit like salsa thick and chunky pace is nothing like the watery herdez

Macadelic4
11-03-2009, 11:10 AM
Ammunition is never an investment in the traditional sense.

Quite true, although it does derive some of its value from raw materials from which it is made. But the "legislative value" it has is very non-traditional.

Would CGNers be interested in an informal ammo index that tracks contracts or purchases on CGN or some other website? Would an authoritative index be useful?

(tries to hide interest in possibly implementing such a system)

paul0660
11-03-2009, 11:14 AM
Ammunition is never an investment in the traditional sense.

That does not matter. There merely has to be a price that changes and an agreement on a standard and amount to be traded. There are, for instance, futures markets for computer memory chips and bulk wine, both of which can go up and down like crazy.

Macadelic4
11-03-2009, 11:14 AM
ammo is not fungible like say bacon or orange juice

too many different "bullets" various hollow points fmj shapes plated copper,and the "lead boolets"

then there are different loading hot vs mild

its a little bit like salsa thick and chunky pace is nothing like the watery herdez

I think the analogous structures in futures exchanges would be like how "corn" is broken down into "corn meal", "corn oil", etc. etc.

Admittedly, ammo would still be more complex due to the many varieties, but there could be come simplification (limit it to cases, jacketing, and bullet weight, eg.) to make such a system manageable.

Macadelic4
11-03-2009, 12:16 PM
ETA a poll to see what level of complexity a theoretical exchange index would have if you had an interest in referring to/following one.

a1c
11-03-2009, 12:40 PM
Ammo is a commodity just like coffee, wine grapes and steel.

Yes, there are several levels of quality and other factors. Just like for coffee, wine grapes and steel.

freakshow10mm
11-03-2009, 1:09 PM
It is when you buy at walmart for dirt cheap, and sell on CG or GB for 2-3 times as much.
That's isn't in the traditional sense of trade securities, is it?:rolleyes:
Quite true, although it does derive some of its value from raw materials from which it is made. But the "legislative value" it has is very non-traditional.

Would CGNers be interested in an informal ammo index that tracks contracts or purchases on CGN or some other website? Would an authoritative index be useful?

(tries to hide interest in possibly implementing such a system)
I fail to understand the importance, practicality, or logic in having such a system. I don't get what the point is.

That does not matter. There merely has to be a price that changes and an agreement on a standard and amount to be traded. There are, for instance, futures markets for computer memory chips and bulk wine, both of which can go up and down like crazy.
There is no way to track all price changes.

pullnshoot25
11-03-2009, 1:14 PM
Macadelic4 and I have discussed this idea in the past and I do not think the idea is to create a futures market but rather a way to track ammo trends, price statistics, etc.

Factors that I feel would be important:

Bullet type- going down to several major categories should simplify things
Corrosive or not- pretty important to most people
Price per round- manually dividing sucks and a per round price
Composition
Steel case or not
Weight
Brand

freakshow10mm
11-03-2009, 1:16 PM
So if all it does is track price and type, what will it do that the half dozen or so ammo search websites don't already do?

paul0660
11-03-2009, 1:35 PM
I don't think there is much point to it, but it is fun to think about trading ammo futs. Ag futures contracts are generally in truckload amounts, and 40,000 lbs of ammo is a lot of booolets.

Macadelic4
11-03-2009, 2:37 PM
So if all it does is track price and type, what will it do that the half dozen or so ammo search websites don't already do?

The difference, in my view of a perfect system, would be that it would track small-scale ammo purchases and not just what prices companies are offering ammo for. The people that make markets are sometimes the little guys who can introduce supply into the markets that has a different price than what retailers are selling for.

Example: Company X sells its stock at price Y, but there is one guy who has been holding onto the stock since it was Y/3. You could buy the stock from the company's broker, or you could use the guy who is willing to sell it to you at Y/2.

Implementation is problematic, to say the least. It might do this by parsing CGN WTB posts, having people list what they sold the ammo for, whatever. But the concept is interesting if anyone wanted to take a stab at it. In fact, if ammo sales on CGN used structured fields (aforementioned factors like bullet weight), it would be possible to collect enough data to make some sort of real-time chart for CGN. Helps people decide what price the market warrants, or just makes pretty graphs.

a1c
11-03-2009, 3:01 PM
I would think the sheer volume of ammunition-like consumer products would make comparing it to industrial grade bulk products like coffee, grapes, and steel an obvious logic mistake.

What you're suggesting is that some broker or business would be willing to sell you a box of Hornady 9mm JHP 147gr TAP FPD in a 25 round box and that he would know the odds of that specific box going up in price and write you a contract for that box, then store the box for you until you or whoever you sell your contract to decides to come claim the actual box.

You seem to be assuming that the coffee or wine grape markets are any less complicated and diverse than the ammo market. They're not.

Curtis
11-03-2009, 3:15 PM
I have seen this site posted before.

http://www.ammoengine.com/find/ammo/.40_S&W

stormy_clothing
11-03-2009, 3:35 PM
yeah this all sounds well and good until you have 1 country buy all 8 billion rounds the US produces each year to shore up there portfolio, or speculators driving the prices through the roof or store employees hording it.

the last thing you want to do is to take something finite like the limited supply of bullets and give it a world value, unless you want the price of bullets to go like the price of gold anyway.

Macadelic4
11-03-2009, 3:46 PM
I have seen this site posted before.

http://www.ammoengine.com/find/ammo/.40_S&W

See my post a few above yours. While a good site, ammoengine isn't the kind of service I'm talking about.


the last thing you want to do is to take something finite like the limited supply of bullets and give it a world value, unless you want the price of bullets to go like the price of gold anyway.

Interesting and valid point. If such a system were to be, say, only for tracking ticks and not for order execution, would it prevent this sort of situation? I understand the technical problems of linking two separate buying/tracking mechanisms, but do you think a simple informational resource would enable anyone more than they are currently? Or make people behave any less speculatively than they currently do? (Would sure get rid of gun stores' "Well, everything is about $X nowadays, prolly won't find it cheaper anywhere else...")

BTW, would anyone refer to such a system if it were free?

a1c
11-03-2009, 4:56 PM
No, I'm assuming that people on Calguns don't buy complicated ammo in the quantities that Starbucks buys complicated coffee.

If we were buying complicated products by the truckload, metric ton, or shipload, then you'd have a viable reason to introduce all the overhead that tracking prices, assigning risk, and issuing contracts requires.

That's true, but I didn't realize that is what the OP was suggesting.

However I buy wine futures, even though it's only a case or two at a time.

Macadelic4
11-03-2009, 5:49 PM
That's true, but I didn't realize that is what the OP was suggesting.


My apologies - I should have made my intentions (which are still even ethereal to me) more clear. That people have different understandings of what such a system might be is interesting.


If we were buying complicated products by the truckload, metric ton, or shipload, then you'd have a viable reason to introduce all the overhead that tracking prices, assigning risk, and issuing contracts requires.

We would have viable reason, but those of crazy enough to try something like this on a small scale don't need to have a viable one ;).

To shift the thread a bit, imagine this index doesn't cost you anything and mainly tracks reported "street value" purchases of ammo. Such purchases are small, numerous, and semi-complex with regard to the various factors of ammo. Retail prices are secondary, but might also be factored into the index.