bwiese

08-21-2009, 12:16 PM

My numbers can be a bit off, but the gross effects and general trends are still valid...

It appears that that around 100 CA FFLs are regularly selling OLL rifles/receivers now, en masse. Prob some 20% more selling a few here & there onesy-twosey.

A ton of them have been selling 100+ AR rifles/receivers per month - sometimes quite a bit more. Some folks DROS multiple items as well - 2 or 3 receivers at a time.

Thus I'm betting in the last 12 months we've moved somewhere around 100K - sure, maybe it's only 80 or 85K, but maybe its over 100K, dunno.

Given the OLL revolution started en masse in Dec 2005, and we were at 30K in April 2006, we've gotta be, at worst, at ~230ish K now but we could easily be at 300K.

We've had 45 months of sales of OLLs - taking a 300K number and dividing it by 45, that means 6,666 OLLs sold in CA for each month - say, avg of 50 FFLs moving avg of 133 OLLs per month. That's a rational and achievable overall avg sales rate.

I have not factored other Bullet-Buttoned/MMG'd OLL rifles into this - AKs, FALs, etc. But I'm sure the AKs are a fair share.

We now have, in just a couple years' work, somewhere around twice the number of OLL rifles in CA as there are registered AWs in CA (from both Roberti-Roos & SB23 reg periods + LE reg + court-ordered reg, spread over more than a decade).

This is sure as hell gonna factor into falling outside of post-Heller "dangerous and unusual" territory. (The Supremes won't care about MMGs :) )

It appears that that around 100 CA FFLs are regularly selling OLL rifles/receivers now, en masse. Prob some 20% more selling a few here & there onesy-twosey.

A ton of them have been selling 100+ AR rifles/receivers per month - sometimes quite a bit more. Some folks DROS multiple items as well - 2 or 3 receivers at a time.

Thus I'm betting in the last 12 months we've moved somewhere around 100K - sure, maybe it's only 80 or 85K, but maybe its over 100K, dunno.

Given the OLL revolution started en masse in Dec 2005, and we were at 30K in April 2006, we've gotta be, at worst, at ~230ish K now but we could easily be at 300K.

We've had 45 months of sales of OLLs - taking a 300K number and dividing it by 45, that means 6,666 OLLs sold in CA for each month - say, avg of 50 FFLs moving avg of 133 OLLs per month. That's a rational and achievable overall avg sales rate.

I have not factored other Bullet-Buttoned/MMG'd OLL rifles into this - AKs, FALs, etc. But I'm sure the AKs are a fair share.

We now have, in just a couple years' work, somewhere around twice the number of OLL rifles in CA as there are registered AWs in CA (from both Roberti-Roos & SB23 reg periods + LE reg + court-ordered reg, spread over more than a decade).

This is sure as hell gonna factor into falling outside of post-Heller "dangerous and unusual" territory. (The Supremes won't care about MMGs :) )