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View Full Version : last 12 mos we have 100K new ARs in CA...


bwiese
08-21-2009, 12:16 PM
My numbers can be a bit off, but the gross effects and general trends are still valid...

It appears that that around 100 CA FFLs are regularly selling OLL rifles/receivers now, en masse. Prob some 20% more selling a few here & there onesy-twosey.

A ton of them have been selling 100+ AR rifles/receivers per month - sometimes quite a bit more. Some folks DROS multiple items as well - 2 or 3 receivers at a time.

Thus I'm betting in the last 12 months we've moved somewhere around 100K - sure, maybe it's only 80 or 85K, but maybe its over 100K, dunno.

Given the OLL revolution started en masse in Dec 2005, and we were at 30K in April 2006, we've gotta be, at worst, at ~230ish K now but we could easily be at 300K.

We've had 45 months of sales of OLLs - taking a 300K number and dividing it by 45, that means 6,666 OLLs sold in CA for each month - say, avg of 50 FFLs moving avg of 133 OLLs per month. That's a rational and achievable overall avg sales rate.

I have not factored other Bullet-Buttoned/MMG'd OLL rifles into this - AKs, FALs, etc. But I'm sure the AKs are a fair share.

We now have, in just a couple years' work, somewhere around twice the number of OLL rifles in CA as there are registered AWs in CA (from both Roberti-Roos & SB23 reg periods + LE reg + court-ordered reg, spread over more than a decade).

This is sure as hell gonna factor into falling outside of post-Heller "dangerous and unusual" territory. (The Supremes won't care about MMGs :) )

strangerdude
08-21-2009, 12:19 PM
http://i36.photobucket.com/albums/e34/JennaBarn32/Borat.gif

Blue
08-21-2009, 12:20 PM
Hell yea!!!

Can Prince 50 or Monster Man give an estimate on how much of their product they've sold? Granted there is other options out there, but those two guys are the heavy hitters.

KCM222
08-21-2009, 12:27 PM
I imagine it's near impossible to accomplish, but I would love to see a similar argument made for high cap mags (ie how many people make 10/30s or 10/20s and argue that they would be normal caps if it weren't for the law).

I seem to remember someone saying that Gura stated that standard cap magazines would be difficult to make a case for, even with the "dangerous and unusual" wording. Anyone have a link to that, or am I off base?

Frijolito1988
08-21-2009, 12:31 PM
so are we talking about OLL's in general ( AK's, AR's , HK's , FAL's, UZI's ) or AR's only ? Either way very impressive!

KCM222
08-21-2009, 12:35 PM
I have not factored other Bullet-Buttoned/MMG'd OLL rifles into this - AKs, FALs, etc. But I'm sure the AKs are a fair share.


so are we talking about OLL's in general ( AK's, AR's , HK's , FAL's, UZI's ) or AR's only ? Either way very impressive!

Looks like it's primarily ARs. Plus the title references ARs.

OlderThanDirt
08-21-2009, 12:43 PM
Can someone send a thank you note to the salesman of the year at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue? While many people associated with Calguns have been instrumental in the OLL revolution, the top salesman really helped the cause.

Mute
08-21-2009, 12:43 PM
I'm sure glad that two weeks never materialized, just as I had hoped it wouldn't.

wash
08-21-2009, 12:50 PM
I'm sorry I didn't have the discretionary income to make the number even more impressive. I only bought one AR in the last 12 months.

I bought a Saiga 12 also so you can add one to the bullet button AK pattern mag fed semi-auto shotgun list.

I doubt the number of new FAL's in the last 12 months is impressive, expensive kits, long wait times for receivers and expensive ammo probably slowed that down.

I've had my PS90 for a year or two, honestly I've forgotten. It's a race to see if I'll get off my behind and make it a featureless rifle or if the CGF will strike down the ban so that I can just put it together without filling the thumb hole. I kind of hope I lose.

artherd
08-21-2009, 1:27 PM
THANKS ALLISON!

http://cdglobal.net/gun/AR_4-blur-crop-600.jpg

stormy_clothing
08-21-2009, 1:48 PM
imported rifles also make up a huge amount I've brought in a number of them this year and just between me and two other people I work with 46 ar's have been built since nov into pistols and rifles.

One OLL I work with sold almost 300 lowers in one month in march.

megavolt121
08-21-2009, 2:50 PM
I'm sure glad that two weeks never materialized, just as I had hoped it wouldn't.

I'm upset it did not.

Just think of how much harder it would be to defend AW laws if the DOJ started to list receivers forcing us to register new AWs and manufacturer's changing stamps and flooding the market and how big of a clusterf*** that would have been. CGF would have had a field day with that!

megavolt121
08-21-2009, 2:51 PM
Stupid slow internet lagging and triple posting...

megavolt121
08-21-2009, 2:52 PM
Stupid slow internet lagging and triple posting...

Kid Stanislaus
08-21-2009, 3:16 PM
Hey Megavolt, we got the message the first time!!

Stanze
08-21-2009, 3:18 PM
If only half the ammo was available for those 100K guns, we'd be alright.:confused:

Vtec44
08-21-2009, 3:41 PM
I'm upset it did not.

Me too, because then I have 90 days to get rid of the bullet button. :D

KDOFisch
08-21-2009, 4:30 PM
Thanks for these numbers!

I was once speaking with a couple other Calgunners, and we got into a friendly debate about it. One guy thought the number was FAR lower, like 40 or 50 thousand. I estimated in the hundreds of thousands IIRC, and the guys looked at me like I was dreaming. Glad I wasn't :sleeping:.

ldivinag
08-21-2009, 4:53 PM
THANKS ALLISON!

http://cdglobal.net/gun/AR_4-blur-crop-600.jpg


ben,

your letter and that other person who started this OLL craze... was it also sign by her?

if that is the case... then yes, a big thanks to allison is indeed needed...

aplinker
08-21-2009, 5:01 PM
ben,

your letter and that other person who started this OLL craze... was it also sign by her?

if that is the case... then yes, a big thanks to allison is indeed needed...

Robert's (blackrazor) 1st letter was from Tim Reiger, but the 2nd (ZM4) one was AM.

bplvr
08-21-2009, 5:13 PM
I was curious as to how the OLL advance affected the crime rates in Ca.,so I Googled "Ca. Murder Rate". Per the Ca.Law Enforcement Association the murder rate was dropping until 2000 when it made a decisive turn up.{I wonder what changed }This trend continued thru 2005 ,when it turned down in both 2006 and 2007. Something doesn't add up here, but it may come in handy down the road.
I'm not saying that the OLL movement caused the drop ,but it didn't make the murder rate go up either. {and since the run on guns began, the U.S. crime rate has taken a real drop since January }

Heatseeker
08-21-2009, 5:14 PM
All I can say is thanks to all of you who worked so hard to make this a reality. I found this forum a little late in the game(1/08), and I've only put two AR and two AK pattern rifles together so far. But I have promoted the AR/AK platforms to many of my friends and they are just as thankful as I. I hope it isn't too long when we have a million OLLs in the state!

Thanks fellas!!!

artherd
08-21-2009, 5:23 PM
ben,

your letter and that other person who started this OLL craze... was it also sign by her?

if that is the case... then yes, a big thanks to allison is indeed needed...

Yup :)

http://cdglobal.net/gun/CTR-02-DOJ-legal.jpg

dwtt
08-21-2009, 5:31 PM
http://cdglobal.net/gun/AR_4-blur-crop-600.jpg

Those numbers are impressive, but not nearly as impressive as this guy's stove and oven. :)

yellowfin
08-21-2009, 8:38 PM
"We're in one business and one business only- killing the AWB. And business is booming!"

artherd
08-21-2009, 9:24 PM
Those numbers are impressive, but not nearly as impressive as this guy's stove and oven. :)

me: "I like to cook."
doj: "what do you cook?"
me: "freedom!"

http://cdglobal.net/gun/ctr-02-2-blur.jpg

anthonyca
08-21-2009, 9:58 PM
me: "I like to cook."
doj: "what do you cook?"
me: "freedom!"

http://cdglobal.net/gun/ctr-02-2-blur.jpg

More like, what are you selling?:eek:

Liberty1
08-21-2009, 10:20 PM
Well, I got three so thats what a .000001% contribution to the cause? Strength from Many!:D

Soldier415
08-21-2009, 10:39 PM
I am going to add to those numbers when I get home. My wife is going to be pissed. LOL

Theseus
08-21-2009, 11:20 PM
My minor contribution. Anyone willing to buy me another and I would be appreciative. . . 20" fluted barrel upper. . . . .

http://www.calguns.net/calgunforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=31236&stc=1&d=1250922010

tombinghamthegreat
08-22-2009, 12:39 AM
http://i464.photobucket.com/albums/rr7/sealofawesomeness/vbncgfngh.jpg

Super Spy
09-03-2009, 12:36 PM
As the gun craze slows, and prices abate, We'll be able to afford more/better toys......like the AR10 I want to build.....

Nodda Duma
09-03-2009, 12:45 PM
And no one will be able to argue that they are dangerous *and* unusual

-Jason

IGOTDIRT4U
09-03-2009, 12:57 PM
And no one will be able to argue that they are dangerous *and* unusual

-Jason

lol, that *and* is going to bite them in the butt. All but for an *or*...

timdps
09-03-2009, 2:04 PM
I guess I'm behind the curve here. No ARs, but my next build will make it 11 non-AR OLLs. :43:

Gator Monroe
09-03-2009, 2:38 PM
As the gun craze slows, and prices abate, We'll be able to afford more/better toys......like the AR10 I want to build.....

NDS retro lowers x-mas sale $129.00+ Tax & Dros and CGN/KD lowers X-MAS sale 149.00 + Tax & dros ?

grammaton76
09-03-2009, 2:48 PM
I've had my PS90 for a year or two, honestly I've forgotten. It's a race to see if I'll get off my behind and make it a featureless rifle or if the CGF will strike down the ban so that I can just put it together without filling the thumb hole. I kind of hope I lose.

Can't turn it featureless with that muzzle device - it IS a flash hider per the owner's manual, period. That's adequate to classify it as such for CA purposes.

So, hope for CGF to strike it down, or start trying to figure out 922(r) parts count for the thing, or hope that CMMG starts putting out 16" or 20" or so barrels. I'd love to have one long enough that I wouldn't need a barrel OR stock extension, but oh well.

wash
09-03-2009, 3:22 PM
Yeah, I was thinking about getting a P90 style muzzle break. I think the barrel is already 16".

I don't think 922(r) is an issue, it's legal everywhere else without an AWB. I don't think it's considered "sporting" either.

A Solar Tactical style grip wrap seems like it might be an easy way to fill the thumb hole. I know a guy that does kydex so I might give it a shot.

For the OAL, I'm planning a "shoulder thing that goes" back.

Then I'm going to get a Laserex so I don't have to use the standard sight.

grammaton76
09-03-2009, 3:33 PM
Yeah, I was thinking about getting a P90 style muzzle break. I think the barrel is already 16".

Yep, definitely is. I personally want a barrel long enough to make 26" OAL without extending the muzzle or stock end though, with threads so I can attach a readily removable 4" device. Unfortunately, CMMG's only selling SBR barrels last I checked.

I don't think 922(r) is an issue, it's legal everywhere else without an AWB. I don't think it's considered "sporting" either.

Per a recent ATF ruling, 922(r) is fairly much a non-issue for the end user. However, it's an issue for dealers and probably an issue for gunsmiths too, so you're stuck doing your own (non-trivial) work if you want to swap barrels or try to get the device off of the muzzle to replace it with something else.

A Solar Tactical style grip wrap seems like it might be an easy way to fill the thumb hole. I know a guy that does kydex so I might give it a shot.

For the OAL, I'm planning a "shoulder thing that goes" back.

Then I'm going to get a Laserex so I don't have to use the standard sight.

Should work.

nicki
09-04-2009, 1:42 PM
If we have all these OLL's in California, then we need to outreach to all those who have the OLL's.

The natural place to start would be the actual FFL dealers themselves.

It may be worthwhile to craft up a letter with a focus on offensive legal action.

Start with the fact that it is was the Action of the Calguns foundation that has allowed them to buy their guns and configure them in the first place, then go to the fact that Calguns is actively seeking to protect them from BS lawsuits.

Many people across the state are not aware of the Milpitas group buy OLL lower case for instance.

A comment about how much one lawsuit would cost and then personalize it to them.

Lastly, tell them that Calguns is working to build the ground to get rid of the stupid features issues so that they can eventually have standard magazine releases and and standard capacity magazines.

Since the number of OLL's is pretty high, it may be cost effective to have a OLL (include other guns too) specific defense fund which they could join.

I would ask that the dealers be formally asked by the CALGUNS foundation to send a letter or some other communication to the owner's of such arms.

The dealers of course could attach their own advertisement to their customers as well, thus a win/win situation.

Of course our Calgun appeal letter should be included with all new OLL/ AW purchases as well, personally I would make it all guns.

The dealers who are handling these arms are what I call the "Hardcore dealers" anyway. If they want to stay in business, it is to their advantage to let the Calguns foundation fight the battle.

Nicki