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hoffmang
07-18-2009, 3:09 PM
UCLA has a post Heller 2A Symposium (http://www.concurringopinions.com/archives/2009/07/ucla-law-review-565-june-%E2%80%94-symposium-the-right-to-bear-arms-after-dc-v-heller.html) it's holding and I'm slowly working my way through the papers. Kleck and Wang submitted a very interesting paper entitled The Myth of Big-Time Gun Trafficking and the Overinterpretation of Gun Tracing Data (http://www.uclalawreview.org/articles/?view=56/5/1-6) (PDF here (http://www.uclalawreview.org/articles/content/56/ext/pdf/5.1-6.pdf).)

A couple of the most interesting findings:

1. One in 30 day laws have no correlation with gun trafficking.

2. Illegal guns are bought and sold for less than their equivalent retail price.

3. The only thing that correlates with criminal access to firearms is the burglary rate locally. If the burglary rate falls, criminal access to firearms falls. The interesting implication is that if law enforcement concentrated on catching burglars it may be the most effective way to get illicit firearms off the street.

It's long and debunks a lot of the other sides' sacred cows, but the data is both very interesting and will be very useful moving forward.

-Gene

HondaMasterTech
07-18-2009, 3:12 PM
Thank you.

Liberty1
07-18-2009, 3:23 PM
2. Illegal guns are bought and sold for less than their equivalent retail price.


-Gene

This has been my "in the field" experience. Those who have talked to me about it have said that they paid in the range of $50 to $100 for a black market gun. (These have been pistols and revolvers - have yet to see an "AW").

socal2310
07-18-2009, 4:20 PM
This has been my "in the field" experience. Those who have talked to me about it have said that they paid in the range of $50 to $100 for a black market gun. (These have been pistols and revolvers - have yet to see an "AW").

It makes sense too. They trade price for practicality: we pay a premium for being able to select the make and model of gun we want, when we want (more or less). The buyer of the illegal (stolen) weapon has to buy whatever the seller happens to have on hand.

Ryan

hoffmang
07-18-2009, 4:35 PM
It makes sense too. They trade price for practicality: we pay a premium for being able to select the make and model of gun we want, when we want (more or less). The buyer of the illegal (stolen) weapon has to buy whatever the seller happens to have on hand.


The other interesting aspect of this is that when a criminal steals a nicer/newer gun, he tends to keep the best one and sell the inferior ones. By definition his favorite handgun cost him nothing and he's selling the known stolen property for less than the retail price of the same used gun - just as if it were a stolen car or a stolen computer. Stolen property has a risk of arrest discount.

-Gene

LAK Supply
07-18-2009, 5:03 PM
The cartels are using mainly automatic weapons obtained from third world countries anyway... this whole "trafficking" farce is just another way for the elitist politicians to bring gun grabbing to the front of the table. It's nice to see there are a few out there with the mental capacity to see through the lies and manipulation.

trashman
07-18-2009, 5:16 PM
Ah! Thanks for the pointer to a nice afternoon read..

--Neill

Werewolf1021
07-18-2009, 7:58 PM
Reading the summaries of some of those papers made me want to facepalm...

But the one you mentioned was awesome.

Librarian
07-18-2009, 9:30 PM
Reading the summaries of some of those papers made me want to facepalm...
OTOH, my reaction was "Ooh! Shiny (http://www.fireflywiki.org/Firefly/CortexLexicon)!"

Good stuff.

hoffmang
07-18-2009, 10:22 PM
Reading the summaries of some of those papers made me want to facepalm...

But the one you mentioned was awesome.

Yeah. The other side really wants to re-argue Heller. It's kind of sad really. However, as a general rule I plow through to make sure the other side isn't saying something novel.

-Gene

Sunwolf
07-19-2009, 7:46 AM
The other interesting aspect of this is that when a criminal steals a nicer/newer gun, he tends to keep the best one and sell the inferior ones. By definition his favorite handgun cost him nothing and he's selling the known stolen property for less than the retail price of the same used gun - just as if it were a stolen car or a stolen computer. Stolen property has a risk of arrest discount.

-Gene


Exactly,who is going to buy a stolen gun for more than retail?

Scarecrow Repair
07-19-2009, 10:18 AM
Exactly,who is going to buy a stolen gun for more than retail?

Anyone who wants to avoid DROS might.

Greg-Dawg
07-19-2009, 10:26 AM
Don't need a UCLA degree to figure it out...but I guess you do.

spyderco monkey
07-19-2009, 10:26 AM
I love the bit about LEO's focusing more on burglaries to prevent gun crime, total two for one awesomeness right there.

hvengel
07-19-2009, 10:26 AM
Anyone who wants to avoid DROS might.

But the data quoted in the paper clearly says that this is very uncommon and that most "illegal" gun are sold for significantly less than retail value.

People who are looking for an "off paper" gun who are otherwise law abiding would not buy a gun they know is stolen and they would be fools to pay higher than retail prices for such a gun given that these typically sell for less than retail prices.

Scarecrow Repair
07-19-2009, 10:31 AM
Exactly,who is going to buy a stolen gun for more than retail?

Let me add more to my previous comment. If it were perfectly legal to pay, say $100, or 10%, to go with the instant background check instead of the 10 day DROS, how many would do so? I am talking legal avoidance, not illegal, and not stolen guns, just ordinary everyday gun purchases. How much would people pay to avoid the 1-in-30 day rule? How much extra to buy guns not on the not-unsafe roster?

If all those were legal above-board choices, I imagine there are quite a few of us who would hold our noses and whine but still pay the premium.

The only difference between a stolen gun and legal one is being caught with stolen property, but since criminals are in the business of doing illegal things anyway, they would probably rather have an untraceable gun.

Almost everything stolen sells at a hefty discount. It is not restricted to guns.

hoffmang
07-19-2009, 10:45 AM
The only difference between a stolen gun and legal one is being caught with stolen property, but since criminals are in the business of doing illegal things anyway, they would probably rather have an untraceable gun.


I think that is fully a question of whether they are already prohibited. If they haven't yet been convicted of a felony, then a stolen gun creates a higher risk for the ex-misdemeanant. The ex-felon doesn't care as much.

Either way though, there looks to be enough burglary that the black market for guns doesn't suffer supply problems and thus it's quite cheaper to buy on the black market than at an FFL - NICS or not. If you don't care about complying in the first place, you're going for the cheaper gun.

-Gene

thegratenate
07-19-2009, 11:10 AM
Interesting, someone took an unbiased look at gun laws, and gun crime, to find out what effects the gun crime, that brady inc claim to be trying to lower, only to find out that they are going about it the wrong way.

Theseus
07-19-2009, 11:43 AM
Which is all the more reason my guns should be on me.with me and ready to use when I am gone and locked up in a safe otherwise.

If they can't steal them from me then they won't have them to sell for less than market. . .

N6ATF
07-19-2009, 11:51 AM
Yep, the gun control, pro-criminal traitors want your guns to stay at home to be stolen. Just a matter of time before they write a law saying that all gun owners must put signs in their windows, to tell criminals where to break into.

Theseus
07-19-2009, 11:53 AM
Yep, the gun control, pro-criminal traitors want your guns to stay at home to be stolen. Just a matter of time before they write a law saying that all gun owners must put signs in their windows, to tell criminals where to break into.

I already have a sign. . my openly carried pistol. . .haha. . .

nick
07-19-2009, 12:56 PM
Exactly,who is going to buy a stolen gun for more than retail?

Stolen gun, no. However, I'd imagine quite a few people would want a gun that's never been in the system to begin with. People would pay extra if this were possible, too. As it is, to get there one has to make it himself, paying someone else to do it isn't really an option (unless one buys a C&R).

A bit off-topic, but I just got inspired to build an AR from an 80% receiver and an AK from a flat :)

Silverback
07-19-2009, 2:11 PM
Exactly,who is going to buy a stolen gun for more than retail?

Maybe an assassin.:rolleyes:

All professionals want the best tools they can get. Probably only use it one time anyways.

DippyPower
07-19-2009, 2:24 PM
When is the symposium? I'm sticking around for summer school this year, and would be interested in going if it fits into my class and work schedule.

I do not think it is a physical symposium. It appears to be a section of the UCLA law journal.

Librarian
07-19-2009, 2:48 PM
I do not think it is a physical symposium. It appears to be a section of the UCLA law journal.
It WAS a physical event, in January (http://www.uclalawreview.org/symposia/).

artherd
07-19-2009, 3:00 PM
The cartels are using mainly automatic weapons obtained from third world countries anyway... this whole "trafficking" farce is just another way for the elitist politicians to bring gun grabbing to the front of the table.

It would be nice if they redacted the number of guns CIA buys for said third world cartels too...

nicki
07-20-2009, 1:25 PM
Until the penalities for both being caught with stolen guns and selling them are significantly bad, we will have a market for stolen guns.

If the penalty for possessing and/or carrying a stolen gun was significant, it would reduce the carrying of arms by criminals or at least reduce the number of times they carry the gun.

Perhaps we need to look at the cost of keeping a burgular in prison versus allowing them to be out and about in society.

It costs 40 to 50 K per year to keep them in jail, they cause that much damage to vitims if they are out of jail.

Nicki

N6ATF
07-20-2009, 1:33 PM
It costs 40 to 50 K per year to keep them in jail, they cause that much damage to vitims if they are out of jail.

Well, in this corrupt state at least. Other states and the federal prisons are much, much lower.

KylaGWolf
07-20-2009, 1:43 PM
Until the penalities for both being caught with stolen guns and selling them are significantly bad, we will have a market for stolen guns.

If the penalty for possessing and/or carrying a stolen gun was significant, it would reduce the carrying of arms by criminals or at least reduce the number of times they carry the gun.

Perhaps we need to look at the cost of keeping a burgular in prison versus allowing them to be out and about in society.

It costs 40 to 50 K per year to keep them in jail, they cause that much damage to vitims if they are out of jail.

Nicki

Well if they made tougher laws on those that do the crime and with illegal guns it might actually do more to deter crime then the boneheaded laws (AB 962, 886 to name a few) could do. Might also open the eyes of some of the sheep. Its amazing when you start to find when you start to research the crime rate of the states that allow more gun rights to the law abiding citizen than the criminals. :D

trinydex
07-20-2009, 2:35 PM
Until the penalities for both being caught with stolen guns and selling them are significantly bad, we will have a market for stolen guns.

If the penalty for possessing and/or carrying a stolen gun was significant, it would reduce the carrying of arms by criminals or at least reduce the number of times they carry the gun.

Perhaps we need to look at the cost of keeping a burgular in prison versus allowing them to be out and about in society.

It costs 40 to 50 K per year to keep them in jail, they cause that much damage to vitims if they are out of jail.

Nicki

so would this be accomplished by a fine? like say 50k fine for carrying illegally? because obviously prison time doesn't actually deter... and if you can't pay then you go to jail for semi skilled labor until you pay it off?

bulgron
07-20-2009, 2:48 PM
Folks,

Gun laws have nothing to do with deterring crime. In fact, it arguably has to do with encouraging crimes. It all comes down to money and power, with you the honest citizen being on the wrong side of that curve.