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bg
03-15-2005, 7:26 PM
I suppose this should go into the off-topic
section, but at least we get an idea who may run
for the Gov's slot in 06. I don't know if
Conan is going to run, I kinda think not.
But some of those from the donkey's have
thrown in their hats.

Anyway you look at it, it spells trouble for
gun enthusiasts. What do you think ?
http://www.yahoo.com/_ylh=X3oDMTEwdnZjMjFhBF9TAzI3MTYxNDkEdGVzdAMwBHRtc GwDaW5kZXgtY3Nz/s/233110

bg
03-15-2005, 7:26 PM
I suppose this should go into the off-topic
section, but at least we get an idea who may run
for the Gov's slot in 06. I don't know if
Conan is going to run, I kinda think not.
But some of those from the donkey's have
thrown in their hats.

Anyway you look at it, it spells trouble for
gun enthusiasts. What do you think ?
http://www.yahoo.com/_ylh=X3oDMTEwdnZjMjFhBF9TAzI3MTYxNDkEdGVzdAMwBHRtc GwDaW5kZXgtY3Nz/s/233110

Charliegone
03-15-2005, 7:48 PM
I'll tell you one thing. I'm not voting for Arnie or a Democrat. He signed the .50 cal bill remember and democrats! Whoa forget about it.

delloro
03-16-2005, 9:54 AM
don't be unecessarily upset about Arnie signing the .50 BMG ban. I mean, it's OK to be furious about the ban itself, but don't be too angry at Arnie. After all, Gray Davis would have signed it and a lot worse.

Arnie may not be our first choice, but he is all we had, and is all we have right now.

The legislature is not representative of the populace. Arnie is doing something about the gerrymandering. Arnie has a weapon nobody else is stepping up with - the ability to go around the legislature, right to the people, time and time again. makes the legislature look like the ineffective asses they are, too.

He was our only choice, and he still is not a bad choice. I do not agree with all of what he proposes, but I also do agree with much of it.

Arnie is not our best friend, but he's the best friend we have right now. We need him.

the democrats do not want him to win again. they do not want you to vote for him. in fact, they want you to not vote for him.

why would you vote how they want you to vote?

Bling Bling
03-16-2005, 10:36 AM
Pretty much Arnie is in there with Bush. We could have BETTER republicans in there, but we're stuck with the ones that can win. Arnie has shot down some stupid gun bills, but not the big ticket ones (.50BMG).

He does support the CA AW ban which REALLY pisses me off. C'mon! In Commando he raided a CA gun store to get supplies so he can go rescue his daughter (Alyssa Milano). And now he won't do the same for us?

Other than is liberal leaning gun views, I think he is doing a good job with CA. Someone had to go in there and make things right and not be scared of pissing some people off. He sidesteps gun control issues alot more than his fiscal policy.

Your average California doesn't really care about gun control. So any argument that looks good on it's face is going to work for them. so it's easy for Dems to start whining about gun control and have an audience.

It's only going to get worse in CA. Especially now that Republican governor has endorsed gun control.

jimx
03-16-2005, 3:06 PM
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by Bling Bling:
Pretty much Arnie is in there with Bush. We could have BETTER republicans in there, </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

How about a Republican period. Arnie is smart; using an R nest to his name always got him press and the Dems are so far to the left here that he would not be welcomed. He’s really a middle of the road Dem, not unlike JFK.
It made me sick the way the Republican Party just folded and started kissing his ***** when he ran.
If the party supported a true Republican we could have Tom Mclintoc (spelling) as gov.

stodgman
03-16-2005, 3:38 PM
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">If the party supported a true Republican we could have Tom Mclintoc (spelling) as gov. </div></BLOCKQUOTE>
BS - We would still have Gray Davis as Governor.

Arnie killed 3 of 5 anti-gun bills put before him to sign. He killed the one that was MUCH worse than the 50BMG bill. He did not create these bills, he did not campaign for these bills, he did not show any support for these bills.

The legislature is STACKED with liberal gun haters. THEY create the bills, Arnold is forced to sign them or veto them. Arnie is not our best friend but he is the best enemy of the Democrats. He will run for governor and I will vote for him again.

bwiese
03-16-2005, 3:58 PM
JimX..

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">made me sick the way the Republican Party just folded and started kissing his ***** when he ran. If the party supported a true Republican we could have Tom Mclintoc[k] as gov. </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

I'm sorry. This just shows how politically naive some of us are on the right in CA. This is really a basic math problem. Unfortunately, from now on - unless some sort of regional emergency occurs and a panic sea change vote occurs - a right Republican will not be able to win election in CA anymore.

I like Tom McClintock too. Great guy. A bit drab and not photogenic, though. The only way Tom McC could have won was to run DIRECTLY against Gray Davis in a non-recall election - so their mutual 'blandness factor' cancels each other out. But Tom would be running against a Democrat with huge structural support (labor, unions, teachers, etc.) in place.

If you looked at polls and demographics during last recall, Tom McC would NOT have won. There was severe danger, in fact, of a Cruz Bustamente win.

While 54% to 44% of the vote chose a recall of Davis, that was far less of a pro-Repub. vote than a 'throw that boring bum out' vote. And Arnold got voted in not because of his politics but because of outsider status + some charisma and press attention. He probably could have won even running as a Democrat (!).

In case you don't remember vote breakdown:
<UL TYPE=SQUARE>
Arnie Schwarzenegger Rep 4203596 48.6%
Cruz Bustamante Dem 2723768 31.5%
Tom McClintock Rep 1160182 13.5%
Peter Camejo Green 242169 2.8%
Others 311377 3.6%
[/list]

Let's say it was still a Davis recall election but this time without Arnie.

Approximately 1/3rd of Arnie votes were crossover Democrat votes, with a smidgen of Greens. What changes?

<UL TYPE=SQUARE>
<LI> almost 100% of these Arnie crossover voters would NEVER go for a right Republican, esp McClintock, and most of these votes would go for the Cruzamonte, w/small fraction to Cruz Bustamente.
<LI> not all Arnie Repub. voters will go to McClintock:
fair fraction of 'pro choice' (their words, not mine) registered Repub voters wouldn't vote for McClintock.
<LI> some percentage (1%? 2%?) of Arnie votes were new/novelty voters voting for Arnie because he was, simply, Arnie
<LI> without Arnie some folks drop back into Greens
[/list]

So, we:
take 1/3 of Arnie vote = 1.401 million
and 2/3 of Arnie vote = 2.802 million
and
give 1/3 to Democrat (Cruzamonte),
and 2/3 to Republican (McClintock)

and we get:
<UL TYPE=SQUARE>
Cruz Bustamante, D 2723768 + 1.401Mil = 4.124Million
Tom McClintock, R 1160182 + 2.802Mil = 3.962Million
[/list]

So clearly Tom McClintock loses, and his statement, "If all the people saying they'd vote for me if I could win, I would win" is clearly untrue.

The devil in CA Repub politics is standing on abortion. This cuts above education vote, taxes, guns, etc.

In fact, many surveys seem to indicate a 'pro choice' pro gun politician can beat an antiabortion antigun pol; the gun issue is much smaller than abortion question. Even in surveys of real liberal voters, gun control is 5th or 6th on their list of prorities.

Unfortunately everytime a pro-gun politician opens his mouth about abortion in CA, he's gonna get shot down. So the gun rights + antitax folks are being sacrified at the altar of the Christian right - these subpopulations of Repub voter overlap but are definitely not identical.

This will only continue get worse with population growth in 'blue' LA area + SF Bay Area and coastal counties, in relation to sparsely populated 'red' counties in inland CA.

So, in plain terms, the net effect of the antiabortion right is that they are really taking away your guns by driving Repub swing votes to Demos.


Bill Wiese
San Jose

Charliegone
03-16-2005, 4:06 PM
Hmmm well he might be our "best friend" now, but what guarantee do we have that he won't sign more gun control bills? I believe Arnie doesn't have much knowledge, IMO ,about gun laws and guns in general. If he did then he would've never signed that bill. I think his Republican friends should enlighten him about "assault weapons" and the other gun laws. Republicans in this state do think, unlike the democrats in this state.

If Tom McClintock would've run for governer I would have voted for him hands down. I contacted his office once and he was very polite and concerning to the peoples needs, especially gun owners. I have heard that he might be running for Lt. Gov. is that true? I say McClintock is our best friend right now, in fact forever. He can get up there you know. We just have to make the Democrats look bad like Gray Davis. Politics is politics...its not personal.

Charliegone
03-16-2005, 4:13 PM
Oh! I forgot. Does anyone think that an Libertarian candidate has a chance to win in California? I think they can, they are pro-rights and pro-gun so they can gain a large part of the vote from everyone. Only problem is there isn't many of them. What do you think?

bwiese
03-16-2005, 4:32 PM
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by Charliegone:
Does anyone think that an Libertarian candidate has a chance to win in California? I think they can, they are pro-rights and pro-gun so they can gain a large part of the vote from everyone. Only problem is there isn't many of them. What do you think? </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

The problems of Libertarians are several.

There's the issue of "I'm throwing my vote away if I vote Libertarian" sentiment. Frankly there's some truth to that unless the Lib. can get sufficient momentum. The risks for some of us not supporting a Repub given the thin margins Repubs have even when they win in CA means voting for an L could be disastrous and put a Demo in office.

And many L.'s simply don't have 'presence' to win (other than occasional district election). Poorly dressed, beards, sometimes not good speakers, poor funding, etc. Some of 'em are real space cadets or at least look like that.

They often focus on what average people believe are small, trivial issues - the average Joe, Demo or Repub, wants no potholes, schools be made to work, and cheaper healthcare. The Libertarian is perceived as somehow ripping that apart, and maybe even offering free drugs in the bargain. Truth doesn't matter - that's what the perception is in mainstream middle America.

As columnist George Will once opined, the probleim with Libertarians is that they look "like a high school algebra teacher that wants to privatize the sidewalk."

The most successful Libertarian is Ron Paul of Texas, who ran as and is now a Republican congressman. He had some charisma on TV, was well-spoken, mainstreamed some of his expressed views, etc.

Contrast that with disastrous press and TV performances of Michael Badnarik, who was referred to several times as a 'space cadet'.



Bill Wiese
San Jose

jimx
03-16-2005, 7:29 PM
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by bwiese:
JimX..

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">made me sick the way the Republican Party just folded and started kissing his ***** when he ran. If the party supported a true Republican we could have Tom Mclintoc[k] as gov. </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

I'm sorry. This just shows how politically naive some of us are on the right in CA.

Bill Wiese
San Jose </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

Perhaps I am naïve? I can not say for certain how things would have turned out. If it wasn’t a recall election I’d say you are 100% correct. The only Dem running was Bustamente. And he was beatable! Granted any Dem that wins his primary will beat any Rep.


Let's say it was still a Davis recall election but this time without Arnie.

Two points on this. The logic is flawed and over simplified and you left out some numbers.
Who had the highest approval rating?
Who would have won with Tom going against just Bustamente. I think we both agree that Exit Poles are the most accurate. And there were several done. What were those numbers?
How many Dems would have stayed at home if Arnie wasn’t running? Arnie received much praise for bringing these people out. (Rightfully so I might add) A smaller number of Rep would have also stayed home but since it doesn’t help my point I will not bring it up.
How many people didn’t vote for Tom because they thought that Tom couldn’t win or Arnie had a better chance?
Once it became clear that Arnie would win how many people jumped on?

I think it is very clear that Tom would have beaten BustaMECHA.

What would have happened if the Rep party didn’t jump on Arnie’s band wagon? Would have Tom still lost, probably but we will never know….
Jimx quote:
If the party supported a true Republican we could have Tom Mclintoc (spelling) as gov.

Stodgman quote:
BS - We would still have Gray Davis as Governor.

I’m not sure what you are saying? If the Rep party had given Tom more support, Davis would have beat the recall?
Imho Davis was gone no matter who was running.

Charliegone Quote
If Tom McClintock would've run for governor I would have voted for him hands down.

Well you had your chance to be number 1,160,183.

Charliegone
03-16-2005, 7:37 PM
Gosh we sure have it hard in California don't we?

bg
03-18-2005, 8:59 PM
Not yet, but if that creep Lockyer gets in,
off to the gulag for pro gun folks..