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View Full Version : FactCheck.org debunks the 90% MX guns number


hoffmang
04-18-2009, 12:21 PM
Factcheck.org has a good piece on the 90% Mexican gun tracing numbers (http://www.factcheck.org/politics/counting_mexicos_guns.html). They also show that Fox may be underestimating the number of US sourced guns as well, but they are guesstimating that.

Excerpt:

Counting Mexico's Guns
April 17, 2009
President Obama says 90 percent of Mexico's recovered crime guns come the U.S. Not true.
Summary
There's no dispute that thousands of handguns, military style rifles and other firearms are purchased in the U.S. and end up in the hands of Mexican criminals each year. It's relatively easy to buy such guns legally in Texas and other border states and to smuggle them across.

But is it true as President Obama said, that "More than 90 percent of the guns recovered in Mexico come from the United States?" No, it's not.

The figure represents only the percentage of crime guns that have been submitted by Mexican officials and traced by U.S. officials. We can find no hard data on the total number of guns actually "recovered in Mexico," but U.S. and Mexican officials both say that Mexico recovers more guns than it submits for tracing. Therefore, the percentage of guns "recovered" and traced to U.S. sources necessarily is less than 90 percent.

Furthermore, the 90 percent figure is based on a badly biased sample of all Mexican crime guns. Law enforcement officials say Mexico asks the U.S. to trace only those guns with serial numbers or other markings that indicate they are likely to have come though the U.S.

Fox News has put the percentage at only 17 percent, but we find that to be based on a mistaken assumption that throws its figure way off. We can't offer a precise calculation because we know of no hard information on the total number of guns Mexican officials have recovered. But if a rough figure given by Mexico's attorney general is accurate, then the actual percentage of all Mexican crime guns traced to U.S. sources is probably less than half what the president claims, and more than double what Fox news has reported.

-Gene

tankerman
04-18-2009, 12:25 PM
Come on you know our president wouldn't tell a lie.:rolleyes:

Roadrunner
04-18-2009, 12:54 PM
So then, the 90% actually comes from the guns submitted for tracing. And the guns submitted for tracing is a small percentage of guns actually seized by the Mexicans.

Well I'm not surprised that Obama would mix a little bit of truth with a whole lotta lies.

nick
04-18-2009, 1:00 PM
Looks like a damage control piece to me :)

halifax
04-18-2009, 1:15 PM
I don't like BHO. But I did hear him say in his last speech in Mexico "90% of the traceable firearms...". His rhetoric has recently changed but most people only hear the 90% and not the "traceable", including most of the sheeple, I assume.

BillCA
04-18-2009, 1:37 PM
Even if BHO and the politicians say that 90% of the traceable guns come from the USA, that's still disenginous. That leaves the impression that a vast majority of the weapons come from here. Without acknowledging the overall numbers, the sound bite is merely more propaganda.

Out of 29,000 weapons siezed in 2007-2008 period, 11,000 weapons were U.S. made. Of those, 6000 were returned to the U.S. for tracing. 90% of that pool of 6000 (5400) were traced to the U.S., meaning only about 18.6% of the guns siezed in Mexico were traced to U.S. sources.

http://i241.photobucket.com/albums/ff111/BillCA/Hobby/misc/mexicoweapons3.jpg

In the same time period, over 150,000 Mexican Army soldiers went AWOL and joined the ranks of the drug cartels, with and estimated 60% taking their M-16's or FAL rifles with them. That's an additional 90,000 weapons.

So, for all of this - less than 20% of the gun traffic and seizures less than a third of new weapons, the Mexicans and the BHO administration suggest WE AMERICANS give up some of our gun rights.

What's wrong with this picture?

hoffmang
04-18-2009, 1:56 PM
Nice find on the chart!

-Gene

lioneaglegriffin
04-18-2009, 3:59 PM
IIRC didn't the calguns community rip Factcheck for factchecking the NRA during the election season and stating that the Annenberg group were a buch of anti's? what changed.

sierratangofoxtrotunion
04-18-2009, 5:19 PM
We can find no hard data on the total number of guns actually "recovered in Mexico,"

Fox says the Mexican Attorney General told them 29,000 over two years: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2009/04/02/myth-percent-guns-mexico-fraction-number-claimed/

Timberline
04-18-2009, 6:08 PM
Out of 29,000 weapons siezed in 2007-2008 period, 11,000 weapons were U.S. made. Of those, 6000 were returned to the U.S. for tracing. 90% of that pool of 6000 (5400) were traced to the U.S., meaning only about 18.6% of the guns siezed in Mexico were traced to U.S. sources.


It's also possible that some of the weapons, not made in the U.S., could have been traced back to U.S. sales. But it doesn't sound as if any effort was taken on that side. Who knows, but it's good to counter the FUD from Calderon and Obama with BATF data.

1859sharps
04-18-2009, 6:58 PM
Well I'm not surprised that Obama would mix a little bit of truth with a whole lotta lies.

The best lies are based on truth or have truth in them.

rabagley
04-18-2009, 7:21 PM
A vocal group on Calguns also ripped FactCheck for verifying Obama's birth certification by handling it and comparing it to other HI birth certifications that they could obtain in person.

IMHO, FactCheck tries very hard to be nonpartisan and in pursuit of facts, just like the name says. In this case, their willingness to state that Obama/Clinton is lying about a material fact says a lot about the organization. I have a lot of respect for their efforts.

lioneaglegriffin
04-18-2009, 7:45 PM
A vocal group on Calguns also ripped FactCheck for verifying Obama's birth certification by handling it and comparing it to other HI birth certifications that they could obtain in person.

IMHO, FactCheck tries very hard to be nonpartisan and in pursuit of facts, just like the name says. In this case, their willingness to state that Obama/Clinton is lying about a material fact says a lot about the organization. I have a lot of respect for their efforts.

a lot of people were singin a differnet tune last sept.

BillCA
04-19-2009, 12:24 AM
Nice find on the chart!

Created, not found. Excel is a wonderful tool. :D

Data was from the Daily Gun news feature on the page before entering Calguns. The actual article is here (http://www.mexidata.info/id2226.html).

Apparently the folks at factcheck.org don't know how to read the news or contact the right sources. The relevant data was found in these paragraphs...
According to Matt Allen, of ICE (U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement), “Not every weapon seized in Mexico has a serial number on it that would make it traceable, and the U.S. effort to trace weapons really only extends to weapons that have been in the U.S. market.”
Therefore, many weapons confiscated in Mexico are not even sent to the U.S. to be traced, because Mexican authorities readily recognize that they aren’t from the U.S.
According to William Newell, an ATF Special Agent, during the period of 2007-2008 Mexico sent 11,000 guns to the ATF to be traced. Of those 11,000 weapons, 6,000 were able to be traced. Of those 6,000, 90% were traced to the U.S.
But those 11,000 guns weren’t the only weapons confiscated in that time period. In fact, from 2007-2008 Mexican authorities recovered 29,000 guns.
It's also possible that some of the weapons, not made in the U.S., could have been traced back to U.S. sales.
It's more likely that those guns that are stamped "Made in USA" are sent back to be traced. There may be some foreign brands that are also sent back because they have either an importer stamp or have a U.S. subsidiary address on them (like Glock's Symrna, GA. stamping).

One guess that I have is that stolen military rifles are "good business" and those stolen from gunshops in "mass burglaries" or from private homes get resold to Mexican Mafia or MS-13 types who broker them to someone crossing the border.

Over half the recovered guns are not even U.S. made weapons and 17% that were US guns did not have a trace request (stamped "US Govt Property?").

Why is the majority of the attention being given to one of the smallest components of the problem? That's like fixing your leaky faucet while the hot-water heater dumps 20 gallons an hour on the garage floor.

motorhead
04-19-2009, 8:15 AM
i don't think the figures include the ones traced to mexican sources like the army and police.

tyrist
04-19-2009, 3:01 PM
Created, not found. Excel is a wonderful tool. :D

Data was from the Daily Gun news feature on the page before entering Calguns. The actual article is here (http://www.mexidata.info/id2226.html).

Apparently the folks at factcheck.org don't know how to read the news or contact the right sources. The relevant data was found in these paragraphs...


It's more likely that those guns that are stamped "Made in USA" are sent back to be traced. There may be some foreign brands that are also sent back because they have either an importer stamp or have a U.S. subsidiary address on them (like Glock's Symrna, GA. stamping).

One guess that I have is that stolen military rifles are "good business" and those stolen from gunshops in "mass burglaries" or from private homes get resold to Mexican Mafia or MS-13 types who broker them to someone crossing the border.

Over half the recovered guns are not even U.S. made weapons and 17% that were US guns did not have a trace request (stamped "US Govt Property?").

Why is the majority of the attention being given to one of the smallest components of the problem? That's like fixing your leaky faucet while the hot-water heater dumps 20 gallons an hour on the garage floor.

Because fixing the leaky faucet is much easier and less costly than having to address the water heater.

Easier to blame the United States Civilian market and push for gun bans than to actually admit you have a serious problem.

dwa
04-19-2009, 4:51 PM
so 90% of the guns we think are american are. theyre good at guessing