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DDT
02-06-2009, 3:36 PM
What are the chances that Nordyke and Chicago will both be decided in favor of incorporation and that SCOTUS will decline to hear appeals and let the Appeals court decisions stand as precedence unless and until a third circuit creates a split?

If this is the case the roll-back lawsuits could start up in earnest by Late summer.

Is this a silly, improbable dream or really a possible outcome?

hoffmang
02-06-2009, 3:55 PM
What are the chances that Nordyke and Chicago will both be decided in favor of incorporation and that SCOTUS will decline to hear appeals and let the Appeals court decisions stand as precedence unless and until a third circuit creates a split?

I'd say the odds are good 80%+ that both rulings go our way in both appelate courts. However, I'd also say that the odds are good that at least one of Chicago or Alameda will appeal even if there is no circuit split. (We might get a circuit split for all the wrong reasons out of the second circuit but I digress - see Don's post...) From comments on the lecture circuit I think our 5 are chomping at the bit to finish the job started in Heller so I think we get Cert even if we're winning to start to put this issue to bed in our direction. Both Chicago and Nordyke are very good cases for our side.


If this is the case the roll-back lawsuits could start up in earnest by Late summer.
There are some less likely outcomes to Nordyke that would allow roll back cases to start in that time frame. However, there are other paths that might accelerate roll back cases :43: Most likely Chicago isn't done until late this year/early next. Likely outcomes on Nordyke have it potentially final around the 1 year anniversary of Heller.

-Gene

DDT
02-06-2009, 4:44 PM
Thanks for all the helpful info. I suppose it would be best to get SCOTUS to hear it ASAP. This will make it less likely that if we lose one of "our 5" with a comfortable "unsplit circuit" that a new Court would take another 2A case just to reverse.