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View Full Version : Chance of a pro-Heller justice death


znode
02-05-2009, 12:15 PM
The latest Ginsburg news got me really worried about one of "ours", so to speak. My job being running scientific research stats, I decided to take the latest actuarial table (http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/STATS/table4c6.html) and run through some statistics of the probability that one of our five pro-Heller justices will pass in the next 8 years.

(This isn't based on their health history; I didn't have time to dig through all that. This is simply their chances based on age.)

The results are grim:

INCORRECT CHART, PLEASE SEE LATER POST

As you can see, there's about a 1-in-five chance of one of ours dying sometime this year. After that it only gets worse. In the third year (2011), the chance is over 50% that one of the justices will pass. The chances are almost 19-to-1 against that all 5 justices will live past the second term. I didn't have time to dig into their health history, of course, but simply by age along, Justice Stevens is the most vulnerable.

Bad news?

nobody_special
02-05-2009, 12:23 PM
Since when is Justice Stevens one of "ours?" You want Thomas instead, and that will greatly lower the odds, since they are essentially being driven by Stevens' advanced age.

Gator Monroe
02-05-2009, 12:24 PM
Since when is Justice Stevens one of "ours?" You want Thomas instead, and that will greatly lower the odds, since they are essentially being driven by Stevens' advanced age.

+46

mymonkeyman
02-05-2009, 12:25 PM
Yea, Stevens needs to be replaced with Thomas, who 1) actually voted for Heller (instead of against) and 2) is considerably younger than Stevens.

rayra
02-05-2009, 12:26 PM
bah

A. consider that these Justices are getting the finest medical care available. Actuarial tables hardly address this significant factor.
and
2. Obama isn't going to have a second term. He's already botching this one so badly, with the overall situation so potentially dire that the Pres in 2013 will be Republican

znode
02-05-2009, 12:32 PM
Wow, what a screwup on my part.

Here's Thomas instead of Stevens.

http://img205.imageshack.us/img205/1896/54707521hw5.gif

1-to-2 for one of the justices passing before the first term. 2-to-1 against, if there's a second term.

Adonlude
02-05-2009, 12:40 PM
2. Obama isn't going to have a second term. He's already botching this one so badly, with the overall situation so potentially dire that the Pres in 2013 will be Republican

I wish I could believe that. Obama started his presidency at what will probably end up being on or near the bottom of what will go down in history as one of the great American economic collapses. We will most likely come out of this depression during his first term and guess who is going to claim responsibility? Regardless of what Obama does "things" are probably going to get better under Obama and people will be too stupid to realize why. Plus he's Obama man... I mean, OBAMA, the savior, haven't you heard the good word?
:42:

znode
02-05-2009, 12:46 PM
bah

A. consider that these Justices are getting the finest medical care available. Actuarial tables hardly address this significant factor.
Justices also quite often retire half the time 5, 10 years before their death. That tends to balance out the extra time medical care can extend.


2. Obama isn't going to have a second term. He's already botching this one so badly, with the overall situation so potentially dire that the Pres in 2013 will be Republican

I wish it was at all that certain.