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View Full Version : Heller incorporation, WI & IL, and "No Issue"


Paladin
12-25-2008, 1:42 PM
Not sure if anyone mentioned/noticed this before (don't visit/post as much as I used to), but the 7th Circuit has jurisdiction over the last two "No Issue" states: WI and IL. The Chicago case is now on its way to the 7th since the NRA lost at the district level. If the NRA wins there and Heller gets "incorporated" by the 7th, good things may be on the way for gunnies in WI and IL.

If the NRA loses in the 7th and appeals to the Supremes -- or if the NRA wins Chicago in the 7th, but they lose Nordyke in the 9th, and then they appeal to the Supremes -- and the Supremes take it and the NRA wins before the them, good things may be on the way for gunnies throughout the US.

Either way, some of the toughest anti-CCW strongholds (HI, CA, IL, WI) could be in for major changes in the next few years.

jacques
12-25-2008, 2:11 PM
I have a good feeling about nordyke. Hopefully all this cruises through. Will make for a good year.

ilbob
12-25-2008, 2:37 PM
I will believe it when I see it.

It seems clear that there is a much better opportunity for Nordyke to fall our way, but I do not think it is a slam dunk.

tombinghamthegreat
12-25-2008, 2:42 PM
I have a good feeling about nordyke. Hopefully all this cruises through. Will make for a good year.

I hope so....

freakshow10mm
12-25-2008, 2:46 PM
WI is a very gun friendly state, minus the no carry law. Hardly anti.

Paladin
12-25-2008, 3:31 PM
WI is a very gun friendly state, minus the no carry law. Hardly anti.Thanks for pointing that out. I was referring to being anti-CCW. I'll edit the OP.

N6ATF
12-25-2008, 8:44 PM
I think Gene said as much in other threads.

hoffmang
12-25-2008, 9:03 PM
Nordyke is at least 2-1, probably 3-0 our way.

The issue will be that post Nordyke, Privileges and Immunities will start allowing out of state residents to demand the ability to be licensed in other states.

-Gene

freakshow10mm
12-25-2008, 9:42 PM
Thanks for pointing that out. I was referring to being anti-CCW. I'll edit the OP.
FWIW, Wisconsin is my home state. Lived there up until 4 years ago.

Window_Seat
12-25-2008, 11:41 PM
Nordyke is at least 2-1, probably 3-0 our way.

The issue will be that post Nordyke, Privileges and Immunities will start allowing out of state residents to demand the ability to be licensed in other states.

-Gene

I have seen this statement in the past (here on CG). I am also optimistic about Nordyke, but I would like to know (not being sarcastic or anything) how we know that it will be either 2-1 or 3-0 in favor of Nordyke? Didn't the 9th used to be one of the most loony left Circuit Courts in the land, and I am aware that there is a partially new panel, but still, how do we know that?

Erik; still trying to figure it out.

DDT
12-25-2008, 11:43 PM
Nordyke is at least 2-1, probably 3-0 our way.

The issue will be that post Nordyke, Privileges and Immunities will start allowing out of state residents to demand the ability to be licensed in other states.

-Gene

Getting a 3-0 would lead to an overturn decision or certification to en banc? Just wondering what we are actually hoping for next month.

yellowfin
12-26-2008, 8:00 AM
WI is even very pro carry, with the exception of one man. The governor is the only reason they don't have shall issue right now- he vetoed it twice.

Meanwhile, do we have a restraining order on Parades to keep him 2 miles from the courthouse on the 15th?

bulgron
12-26-2008, 8:55 AM
WI is even very pro carry, with the exception of one man. The governor is the only reason they don't have shall issue right now- he vetoed it twice.


He did more than that. The legislature had the votes to over ride his veto, but he kept calling individual law makers in to his office, where they would mysteriously decide to change their votes. Who knows what leverage he had on those guys, but he has gone VERY far out of his way to make sure WI doesn't get a good CCW law.

freakshow10mm
12-26-2008, 9:35 AM
And only one of them rolled. The WI SC wants to render "Vermont carry" and they came very close to in State v Hamden, but they in their ruling, urged the legislature to address the issue of concealed carry and get a system in place. As long as Doyle is governor there is no chance of 941.23 being changed unless there is a veto proof majority in both sides of Congress. I'm glad I got away when I did.

ilbob
12-26-2008, 9:36 AM
Nordyke is at least 2-1, probably 3-0 our way.

The issue will be that post Nordyke, Privileges and Immunities will start allowing out of state residents to demand the ability to be licensed in other states.

-Gene

My guess is that even if the 3 judge panel rules our way, there is a very good chance the full court will reverse it. They will want to curry favor with the new administration and they know his feeling on the subject, and they know if they want to move up the line they will have to play ball and vote the "right" way.

Even if it gets past the full court, most of us will be dead and buried before it is resolved and I can carry in my home state.

hoffmang
12-26-2008, 12:41 PM
Curry Favor? They're already appointed for life :rolleyes:

Anyone who doesn't think we're getting incorporation in Nordyke needs to read our panel's previous ruling (http://www.ca9.uscourts.gov/ca9/newopinions.nsf/FCCA5E5E7F2EBF2088256CD1005B853B/$file/9917551.pdf?openelement) in this case.

We might go en-banc, but if we do its because Kozinski and others want to put their fingerprints on this historic case. If in the remote case we lose en-banc I'd give SCOTUS a 90% chance of granting cert. It's slightly less if we win or if Alameda chooses the wise course and doesn't appeal.

The 9th currently has the most republican appointees (slightly more than half) its going to have for the foreseeable future.

-Gene

DDT
12-26-2008, 4:46 PM
Is the biggest threat if the 9th finds a way to rule in favor of Nordyke without broaching incorporation directly and Alameda realizes what will happen if they appeal?

hoffmang
12-26-2008, 8:38 PM
Is the biggest threat if the 9th finds a way to rule in favor of Nordyke without broaching incorporation directly and Alameda realizes what will happen if they appeal?

The only open issue is the Second Amendment and thus incorporation on this set of filings.

I dunno on Alameda. We're winning at the three judge panel stage. I'm pretty sure we either don't get en-banc or if we do we win that too. That leaves it open to see how dumb/desperate Alameda is. If they were smart, they'd leave it alone and the 9th will have binding Incorporation. Every time I think they couldn't be that stupid though...

Either way, then the games will really begin...

-Gene

Paladin
12-26-2008, 9:39 PM
Either way, some of the toughest anti-CCW strongholds (HI, CA, IL, WI) could be in for major changes in the next few years.
IL and WI both have pro-CCW web forums, but I haven't found one for HI. If someone here has the computer skills, getting one set up before the 9th delivers their opinion (summertime?), would be best. HI needs to get organized and plan now how to claim their 2nd A RKBA as U.S. citizens. :chris:

bulgron
12-26-2008, 9:45 PM
IL and WI both have pro-CCW web forums, but I haven't found one for HI. If someone here has the computer skills, getting one set up before the 9th delivers their opinion (summertime?), would be best. HI needs to get organized and plan now how to claim their 2nd A RKBA as U.S. citizens. :chris:

Shouldn't someone from Hawaii be doing that, or at least be driving the effort by asking for outside talent (if they need it)?

It's trivial to start a forum -- I can do it in about 20 minutes. The hard part is building the community to populate the forum. That takes a lot of dedicated effort to attract people, and then to moderate it so that the thing doesn't fracture or turn into a big ball of flames or just plain fade away.

Paladin
12-26-2008, 10:10 PM
Shouldn't someone from Hawaii be doing that, or at least be driving the effort by asking for outside talent (if they need it)?Ideally someone from there should be doing it. But maybe the universe of pro-RKBA people and the IT people over there don't overlap. Perhaps HI pro-gunnies have searched, but come up dry and don't know how to do it themselves? I sure as heck don't and I don't plan on learning. I don't think I'm exceptional in that regard.

It's trivial to start a forum -- I can do it in about 20 minutes. The hard part is building the community to populate the forum. That takes a lot of dedicated effort to attract people, and then to moderate it so that the thing doesn't fracture or turn into a big ball of flames or just plain fade away.Here's a newspaper (online only?) in HI that has run pro-CCW articles and, according to this article (http://www.hawaiireporter.com/story.aspx?05eafffd-eff0-4c14-ba7c-1ec44f3d267c) there are HI people fighting for CCWs.

Informing the national CCW websites (e.g., http://www.usconcealedcarry.com/) of the new HI site will get people who visit there to go visit your site. Plus announce it in their forums, if they have one. I'd also Rx announcing it at OpenCarry.Org's Hawaii subforum. In your posts, ask for leads to other places to post it to round up interest.

Plus, a lot of Californians, esp Asians, have family or other ties to Hawaii. Just announcing it here and asking everyone to pass it along to family, friends, etc on the Islands will probably get a small nucleus.

If you start it and no one shows up after a year or two, shut it down if you want.
If you start it and people show up, hand off some of the responsibilities for it to locals as the numbers increase.

ETA: I think many HI gunnies have given up and don't realize what Nordyke could mean for them. I'd bet that many of them have never even heard of it, so Nordyke and its implications might be a good first thread for that forum. Perhaps one of our CGN/CGF Nordyke experts could make a posting explaining things for them.

Gray Peterson
12-27-2008, 12:22 AM
Hawaii doesn't need incorporation. They can file cases right now under their state RKBA provision, which is exactly the same as the 2nd amendment minus a comma.

Paladin
12-27-2008, 4:23 AM
Hawaii doesn't need incorporation. They can file cases right now under their state RKBA provision, which is exactly the same as the 2nd amendment minus a comma.If true, why would they want to? Has their Sup Ct has already interpreted their state RKBA provision as being more broad than what SCOTUS did with the 2nd A RKBA in Heller? If not, why would they even want to mess with their, most likely anti-RKBA, HI state justices, especially when Heller will apply to them via incorporation by Nordyke in probably less than 9 months? :confused: